How China got its claws into the West’s green transition

Within financial markets, “Doctor Copper” refers to the idea that the price of the metal can be used as a barometer for the health of the world economy.

So ingrained is the substance in our everyday lives – used in everything from construction and electronics to power transmission and more – that its price is a good bellwether for how well things are going.

China is already the world’s largest producer and consumer of the metal, and it is tightening its grip on the industry.Credit: Bloomberg

To look at copper over recent months, you’d think the world is on the up. The price of the metal has risen by nearly a tenth over the last six months.

But what this rally may in fact be pointing to is something quite different: China tightening its grip on supplies.

Inventories usually grow around Lunar New Year at the end of January as Chinese smelters keep working through the holiday period but many factories reduce their operations.

However, the seasonal build-up has been the most pronounced since 2020. Stockpiles jumped from 30,905 metric tonnes at the end of December to 285,090 tonnes by the end of February.

Imports also rose over the same period despite the large build ups in warehouses.

The trend has caught the eye of market observers because of the importance of copper to the green economy.

Electric vehicles, wires that carry electricity and solar panels all require copper and lots of it. In many instances, there is no substitute.

Copper supplies are already tight after a string of mines reduced their production forecasts late last year. Many mines around the world are nearing the end of their lifespan and the quality of the ore is in decline, meaning more is needed to achieve the same standard.

The closure of a copper mine in Panama and a lack of new projects in the pipeline suggest supplies are set to shrink, according to Ewa Manthey from Dutch bank ING. Goldman Sachs expects demand to outstrip supply this year.

China is already the world’s largest producer and consumer of the metal. Its strategic stockpiles help it to influence prices on global markets and protect against shortages for its domestic industry.

However, the country’s tightened grip on copper poses a potential threat to the West’s energy transition.

“China holds most of the cards for the copper needed for the green transition,” says Kieran Tompkins, a commodities economist at Capital Economics.

The backdrop is heightening tensions between Beijing and the West, with the UK and US this week accusing China of a coordinated hacking campaign meant to undermine democracy.

China has pivoted away from focusing on property development and tech to massively ramping up its production of electric vehicles and solar panels.Credit: Getty

A row is currently raging in Westminster over how tough Britain’s response should be. Those who argue for cautious, targeted sanctions are fearful of the potential economic fallout of angering Beijing.

In this context, the scale of China’s stockpiles – and its motivations – are significant.

“We can’t tell for sure whether China has been stockpiling, because we don’t really have an idea of the number of stocks it has off exchanges,” says Tompkins.

“But what we can tell is that China has really entrenched itself as a very dominant producer of refined copper.”

Electric vehicles, wires that carry electricity and solar panels all require copper and lots of it. In many instances, there is no substitute.

Even when other imports slumped, China kept buying up more materials to produce refined copper. The entire increase in global refined copper production in 2023 was down to China, Tompkins adds.

“China has been really pushing up the domestic production of copper and it has been hitting record highs every year,” says Manthey.

This has helped the country cement its dominance in the supply of “materials that will be used in critical industries related to green transition”, Tompkins says.

In part, this has reflected the shifting focus of China’s domestic economy: it has pivoted away from focusing on property development and tech to massively ramping up its production of electric vehicles and solar panels.

However, this market power also gives Beijing significant leverage.

It comes at a time when demand for copper is already predicted to rise, both in the short and longer term.

If nothing else, it will mean higher prices.

“The combination of record low copper stocks [globally], our expectation of peak mine supply next year, rapid green demand growth, and low price elasticity of both demand and supply will in our view lead to copper scarcity pricing in 2025,” analysts at Goldman Sachs said in a recent note.

Historical precedent suggests prices could surge by 25 per cent over the next 12 months, its economist said.

Manthey says: “If we don’t find new copper deposits or they are not brought online quickly enough, then we’re going to see an extended supply deficit. This would lead to higher copper prices over a longer timeframe.”

Higher copper prices and shortages in the longer term “would also lead to a slowdown in the adoption of green energy and the energy transition”.

If the West wants to avoid a dependence on China, there must be a significant increase in investment in copper mining. That doesn’t look likely from debt-bloated US and European governments.

In the meantime, industry, investors and politicians will all watch nervously as China’s stockpiles rise.

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