Fears of wider Middle East conflict as US, allies warn Red Sea rebels

The United States could soon begin hitting missile sites in Yemen to deter Houthi attacks in the Red Sea, and Australia has joined a 12-nation coalition warning the rebels they will face consequences if they continue attacking vessels passing through the crucial trade corridor.

The rising tensions in the Red Sea are part of a wider escalation of hostilities in the Middle East flowing from the war in Gaza, including warnings of retaliation against Israel by the militant group Hezbollah in Lebanon after a senior Hamas leader was killed in a drone strike in Beirut.

A Houthi helicopter approaches a cargo ship in the Red Sea as the rebels threaten to seize vessels owned by Israeli companies.Credit: Getty Images

Underlining the growing risks in the region, Iran vowed to respond to what it called a terror attack after at least 103 people died in twin blasts near the burial site of military commander Qasem Soleimani, who was killed in a US air strike in Baghdad in 2020.

After Australia last month declined to send a warship to the Middle East in response to the Houthi attacks, military experts have called for the Albanese government to find the money required to boost the navy’s number of ships as part of its response to a review of the nation’s surface fleet.

The Iranian-backed Yemeni rebels have blockaded the Red Sea in support of Hamas, targeting merchant ships destined for Israel, and other vessels, following the outbreak of the war in Gaza.

Regional tensions escalated in the past week when seven Houthi militants were killed in a clash with US military helicopters after they fired on the Maersk Hangzhou, a Singapore-flagged container ship.

Iran-backed Houthi rebels in Yemen have staged a series of attacks on Red Sea shipping.Credit: Bloomberg

On Thursday, Australia joined 11 other countries in issuing a written warning to the Houthis, calling for an end to their “illegal attacks” and the release of “unlawfully detained vessels and crews.”

“The Houthis will bear the responsibility of the consequences should they continue to threaten lives, the global economy and free flow of commerce in the region’s critical waterways,” said the statement released by the White House and signed by the US, Australia, the UK, Bahrain, Belgium, Canada, Denmark, Germany, Italy, Japan, the Netherlands and New Zealand.

Speaking for the government, Health Minister Mark Butler described the letter as “another indication of the measure of concern and outrage that the global community has about … these attacks on civilian commercial shipping”.

“Australia as a responsible, proactive part of the global community obviously wants to be a part of that,” he added.

Pentagon officials told reporters they have drawn up detailed plans to strike Houthi missile and drone bases in Yemen, despite the Biden administration’s fears of escalating hostilities and a wider regional conflict.

Up to six extra Australian Defence Force officers will be deployed to Bahrain as part of the Combined Maritime Forces this month on top of five personnel already embedded in the operation.

Foreign Minister Penny Wong will travel to the region later this month on a visit that is expected to include Israel, the Palestinian territories, Qatar and Egypt.

Jennifer Parker, an adjunct fellow in naval studies at UNSW, said it was increasingly likely that the US would launch strikes on Houthi targets in Yemen.

Parker said it was crucial that the Australian government finds the funding to expand the navy beyond its current eight frigates and three air warfare destroyers when it responds to its surface fleet review early this year.

“We simply don’t have enough surface combatants [ships] to do the tasks required to serve our maritime interests,” she said, noting that two out of three naval vessels were usually out of use because of maintenance and training.

Malcolm Davis, a senior analyst at the Australian Strategic Policy Institute also said Australia needed a larger, more powerful navy.

“If we don’t get an investment in a greater number of warships following the surface fleet review, we will have too small a fleet to deal with the threats we face,” he said.

Defence Minister Richard Marles noted that Australia was focused on the immediate Indo-Pacific region when explaining why it would not send a ship to the Red Sea.

Almost 15 per cent of seaborne trade worldwide is estimated to pass through the Red Sea, and the need to reroute vessels around the Cape of Good Hope in South Africa has added significant cost and delays to delivering goods.

The tensions in the Red Sea are part of a wider escalation in the Middle East flowing from the war in Gaza, including the possibility of heightened violence between Israel and Hezbollah after a senior Hamas leader, Saleh al-Arouri, was killed in a drone strike in Lebanon.

Israel has not claimed responsibility for Arouri’s death, but is widely believed to be responsible for the strike.

In a televised speech in Beirut, Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah vowed that the militia group “cannot be silent” in the wake of Arouri’s killing, which he called “a major dangerous crime”.

Nasrallah said there would be “no ceilings” and “no rules” to Hezbollah’s fighting if Israel launched a major attack on Lebanon.

“Whoever thinks of war with us, in one word, he will regret it,” he said. “If war is launched against Lebanon, then Lebanon’s national interests require that we take the war to the end.”

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