It’s hunting season for Terminator Dutton as Albanese flounders

The year began with Albanese government ministers describing Peter Dutton as their best asset. It is ending with the threat he could turn into their worst nightmare.

A rejuvenated Dutton has – with considerable help from the government – succeeded in catastrophising every issue, creating a sense of chaos around Anthony Albanese. Brimming with confidence, Dutton now scoffs at suggestions he is running a two-term strategy to unseat Albanese, predicting he will reduce him to a one-termer.

Albanese needs to change or he will go down. It won’t matter how ugly Dutton’s style of politics is.Credit: Illustration: Dionne Gain

Dutton is starring in the Terminator sequel, fittingly subtitled Judgment Day, tutored by the original, Tony Abbott, living proof there is no such thing as an unelectable opposition leader.

If Albanese doesn’t change, he will go down. It won’t matter how ugly Dutton’s style of politics – Labor’s focus groups cast him as thuggish – or what state the economy is in.

When Albanese rang in last week to congratulate John Laws on 70 years of broadcasting, he told him, apropos of nothing at all: “You know John, that a little fun fact is, the next election, I will be seeking to be the first prime minister in over 20 years to be re-elected.”

Hilarious. Especially as those close to him say he appreciates the gravity of the situation and knows he could easily fall victim to this curse. “He is not in denial,” they say. So, he needs to fix it. Now.

The government has enabled and obliged Dutton by screwing up repeatedly – essentially by making the same mistake. It reacts too slowly to a problem, then responds either inadequately or incompetently. This column warned in September during the Qantas/Qatar controversy about the dangers of poor political management. Things have become worse, not better.

Gains from Albanese’s visit to China evaporated after news Australian navy divers were injured by sonar from a Chinese warship. That it happened was bad enough. Compounding it was the delay in revealing it, followed by unconvincing explanations of whether Albanese had raised it with Xi Jinping at the APEC meeting in the US, which Albanese attended at President Joe Biden’s urging. All voters saw was chummy footage of Albo shaking hands with China’s supreme leader.

Given Albanese’s absence from parliament during a critical time, the least Biden could do now is to free Julian Assange so he can have Christmas with his family.

Many of the subsequent problems triggered by the High Court’s ruling on indefinite detention might have been avoided if Albanese had trusted his initial instincts and stayed home. The Home Affairs Minister, Clare O’Neil, one of the government’s best performers, has been wounded. She has ample time and talent to recover. Not so the Immigration Minister, Andrew Giles, who should be replaced.

It is eminently possible for Albanese to rebound, as he did after his disastrous first week in the 2022 election campaign. But not without changes in process, style and substance. For starters, he needs to stop managing his own diary. That is ridiculous.

Senior members of the government, more anxious than panicked, believe it’s time to limit his overseas travel and eliminate it during sitting weeks. “He is our best negotiator and our best parliamentarian,” one said.

“It is still salvageable,” another insisted, while conceding the government must focus more on the issues that matter to people and improve political management.

They say debate in cabinet about the government’s agenda and its internal operations needs to be more robust, not that Albanese discourages frank discussions, but people “have tended to hold their tongues”.

Scarred by the command-and-control approach of Kevin Rudd – and Abbott – which vested unfettered power in the prime minister and his office, with disastrous consequences, Albanese is wary of anything that might revive that or recreate “celebrity staffers”.

But there has to be a balance. When ministers falter, the prime minister and his office have to get involved to resolve the problem. Depending on the circumstances, the minister is either rescued or cut loose. Back ’em or sack, don’t leave ’em hanging.

When the prime minister is the problem, he has to hear it from his nearest and dearest. For their own good and the good of the government, prime ministers need regular, often stern, reality checks.

The need to refresh and regroup urgently was sadly underlined by the cruel death of the most admirable Victorian backbencher, Peta Murphy. The byelection next year for her seat of Dunkley poses a test and a threat for Albanese.

Anthony Albanese is scarred by the command-and-control approach of Kevin Rudd and Tony Abbott before him.Credit: Alex Ellinghausen

The government cannot afford to look like it is drifting, or to end 2024 as it’s finishing 2023. If it does, it will struggle to recover in time for the election.

Its disasters helped cover Dutton’s debacle in NSW, where his lieutenants campaigned hard for the endorsement of the defeated senator from the ACT, Zed Seselja, to replace retiring senator Marise Payne.

West Australian frontbencher Andrew Hastie robo-called on Seselja’s behalf the day before the preselection. Shadow treasurer Angus Taylor, signing off as “the Honorable Peter Dutton’s representative on NSW State Executive” texted preselectors the morning of the vote, urging them to choose Seselja because he was needed in the Senate “now”. Neither intervention was appreciated.

In the first ballot, Seselja got 66 votes, Dave Sharma 107 and Andrew Constance 135. A split in the moderates enabled Sharma – with the backing of Alex Hawke and his supporters – to win.

Finally, a fond farewell to former minister Gerry Hand, who died recently. Before heading to Washington, I told him and Nick Bolkus that after 15 years in the press gallery they and Bill Hayden were my only three friends in parliament. Given the brutal nature of politics, Nick burst out laughing, saying: “That’s pretty good.” And it was.

Gerry was a brave, dedicated Labor warrior, full of passion and brilliant insights usually delivered over a hot chocolate after late sitting nights. The most memorable? That all prime ministers eventually go mad.

Niki Savva is a regular columnist.

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