If the Voice is defeated, what then will Albanese do to fix things?

One of my early memories is of sitting on the carpet in my parents’ house, watching ABC News and wishing it was over. Amid my boredom I must have been vaguely listening because it has stayed with me all these years that the story was about Palestine; there was the faded colour of desert sand on the screen. Or perhaps it is not a single memory but a composite, made up of the many times Israel and Palestine were on the news those days, turned into a single image which now stands in for many. In any case, this image came back to me on Saturday night, when I read of the war that may be about to break out, or perhaps has effectively broken out already. At a certain age, the passage of time, at least in regard to certain themes, begins to feel cyclical rather than chronological. Some situations come to seem intractable.

The most important question is: how will you vote? After that, it is what Albanese will do if defeat comes?Credit: Jim Pavlidis

With just five days to go until the referendum it is important to remember how hopeful a proposition the Indigenous Voice to Parliament has always been – and still is. One of the impressive things about the referendum proposal is that it offers to do so much. It offers a clear, comprehensible way to improve lives: just listen to Indigenous people. Alongside this practical benefit, it offers symbolism: a way to incorporate more than sixty thousand years of history into our nation’s short modern life, through recognition in the Constitution. Even while doing so, it offers us a path away from the horrors of the past, clearly marking a moment in time when the nation decided to do things differently. As Noel Pearson has said, its passage would mark a moment of true equality between the three groups of Australians – Indigenous, settlers, and migrants – as “the settler-native thing kind of retreats into history”.

But what if, as is likely, the proposition loses? Where are we then? Are we conceding, as a nation, that the position of Indigenous people in this country is one of those intractable situations? Are we simply admitting that we are more or less satisfied with the way things are, give or take a couple of spending tweaks? That Indigenous disadvantage is unsolvable? That different groups of Australians will remain unreconciled? That the rift on which this country was built will remain forever open?

If we are not conceding such things, then where will change come from? Do we simply wait until voters change? Or does change have to be made to happen? These are eternal political questions, of course.

It was not long ago that Anthony Albanese declared victory on election night. It was easy then to think the country had changed. The election results seemed new: the wave of teals and greens seemed an indication of a shifted mood. Perhaps they were. But with an election, the baton was passed from voters to political leaders. It was up to the government to do something with that change.

Opinions remain sharply divided on whether the Albanese government has made enough change – and there is still half a term to go. One of the interesting things about the referendum is that, this Saturday, the baton is passed briefly back to the people. We have become accustomed, in recent years, to criticising our politicians for failing to change things. That is not possible here. There are certainly criticisms that can be made of the prime minister, and lots of blame to go round – but we will not be able to say, this time, that it was our government that backed away from change. The result will be what voters make it.

One of the most interesting political questions around the referendum is what impact the result will have on Albanese’s approach to change more broadly. On the referendum, he was optimistic. On most other matters, though, he is clearly conscious of voters’ resistance to change. The prevailing wisdom seems to be that defeat will make him more cautious still. Perhaps. But it is at least possible it will have the opposite effect. Defeat will leave a gap in the story of the Albanese government’s first term. It will need to work hard to convince voters it has done enough with the opportunity they gave it.

What about the Coalition? Where does it stand on change? At first glance its approach to the referendum is conservative: preserving the status quo. But Peter Dutton’s method of campaigning represents a genuine attempt to change the way that politics is done in this country. Not that every example of post-truth politics is deliberate or planned: Dutton, despite the superficial appearance of discipline, has long had a habit for looseness in media appearances. This has re-appeared in recent weeks with his comments on a second referendum, which he seemed less and less convinced of with time, and his comments about Alan Joyce and Albanese, some obviously false. Still, he seems more brazen than he once was – and why wouldn’t he be? As a minister, he was sometimes pulled up. Now, too often, the media goes along.

These are broader issues. The specific issue in front of all of us is Indigenous disadvantage and the chance at reconciliation. The most important question is simple enough: how will you vote? After that, it is what Albanese will do, if defeat comes, to fix things: to find a way to listen to Indigenous people, bring change to their lives, and in doing so, change our country. If he does not, then soon enough, most of us, politicians included, will have turned away. It will have become another intractable problem. In 30 or 40 years’ time, the images on the television will be much the same as they are now.

This week, though, the ability to deliver change is ours. On Saturday night, whatever the result, the baton will be passed back to the government. In some ways, Labor’s task will be similar whatever the result. If Australia votes for change, then the government must not let us down. On the other hand, if on Saturday we collectively fail our Indigenous people, that makes it all the more important that the government does not.

Sean Kelly is a regular columnist and a former adviser to Julia Gillard and Kevin Rudd.

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