Voters continue to turn against the Voice – and Albanese along with it

Support for the Indigenous Voice has slumped to 43 per cent after the opening week of the formal campaign for the referendum, with NSW and Victorian voters shifting against the proposal and putting it on track for defeat on October 14.

Voters have swung against the Voice for the fifth month in a row and are backing the No case in every state except Tasmania, despite a forceful campaign by Yes supporters to assure sceptical voters they had nothing to fear from the change.

Resolve polling shows the No vote growing and support for Anthony Albanese and Labor weakening. But Albanese remains preferred prime minister over Peter Dutton.Credit: Aresna Villanueva

An exclusive survey also shows that Labor has lost core support and Prime Minister Anthony Albanese has suffered a fall in his net performance rating to minus 7 per cent, driving this measure into negative territory for the first time since the election.

Albanese retains a clear advantage over Opposition Leader Peter Dutton as preferred prime minister, ahead by 43 to 28 per cent, but this has narrowed from 46 to 25 per cent one month ago.

The survey, conducted for this masthead by Resolve Strategic, shows that 35 per cent of voters support the Voice and 49 per cent oppose it when asked about the government proposal for change, with another 16 per cent undecided.

The number of voters who say they would “definitely” vote No has increased from 33 to 37 per cent over the past month, while those who say they would “probably” vote No is steady at 12 per cent.

When asked a second question that only allows a Yes or No answer akin to the referendum, and using the exact wording put forward by the government, 43 per cent support the change and 57 per cent are opposed.

Voters have steadily hardened their objections to the Voice throughout the year, with the No vote swelling from 42 per cent in January to 47 per cent in May and 54 per cent in August before strengthening again this month on the “yes or no” question.

Resolve director Jim Reed said there were no signs that campaigning, including adopting You’re the Voice sung by John Farnham as the cause’s anthem, had boosted voter support for the change to the Constitution.

“If anything, the campaign is having the opposite effect because the No vote is still growing,” he said.

“The more people engage in the debate, and the more they consider the proposal, the more they are put off.

“The comments we collect from respondents are becoming more exasperated and frustrated in their tone as the campaign wears on. Many people seem impatient for this to be over, especially those who see it as a diversion or divisive.”

The Resolve Political Monitor surveyed 1604 eligible voters about the wording proposed by the government in the referendum bill passed by parliament to change the Constitution to recognise First Australians by establishing the Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander Voice. The questions were asked from Wednesday to Saturday, days after the launch of the Yes advertising campaign using Farnham’s song, and the results have a margin of error of 2.4 percentage points.

While the national figures are based on the September survey, the state-by-state results combine the August and September surveys to build a bigger base of 3207 respondents and produce more reliable results for smaller states.

The No vote has gained ground in each state and is strongest in Queensland and Western Australia, with 61 per cent against the change, followed by South Australia (59 per cent against), NSW (56 per cent against) and Victoria (51 per cent against).

While the survey suggests Tasmania supports the change, with 56 per cent in favour and 44 per cent against, this is based on a small sample size to reflect the state’s relatively small population, leading to a bigger margin of error.

“Every poll has a margin of error, but we are sure of the national result being No and of the same result in four of the six states because they are outside that margin,” Reed said.

“The Yes campaign need four states to win, but we only have them ahead in one, [Tasmania] and it’s a result that we’re not certain about either.”

Albanese, who returns to federal parliament on Monday after a week overseas at the G20 and other leadership summits, has assured Australians he is acting on domestic priorities such as the cost of living.

Voters cut their support for Labor from 37 to 36 per cent over the past month, while they increased the Coalition’s primary vote from 33 to 34 per cent.

The Greens increased their primary vote from 11 to 12 per cent, while support for independents slipped from 10 to 9 per cent.

While the changes in core support were all within the margin of error for the September survey, the Labor primary vote has fallen from 42 per cent since the May budget, while the Coalition primary vote has increased from 30 per cent over the same period.

When voters were asked about the prime minister’s performance, 40 per cent said he was doing a good job and 47 per cent said he was doing a poor job, with the remainder undecided. This resulted in a net performance rating of minus 7 per cent, down from a positive rating of 2 per cent one month ago. His net rating was 35 percentage points in January.

The trend has improved Dutton’s standing on this personal measure, with 35 per cent saying he was doing a good job and 43 per cent saying he was doing a poor job. This resulted in a net performance rating of minus eight per cent, compared to minus 17 percentage points in January.

Support for the Voice among Labor voters has fallen from 75 per cent in April to 69 per cent in May and 64 per cent in August, before slipping to 60 per cent in September.

Support has fallen slightly among Greens voters, with 81 per cent in favour in June but 78 per cent in favour in September, and it has fallen among Coalition voters from 26 per cent in June to 16 per cent in September. This means 84 per cent of Coalition voters are now on the No side.

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