Emerging cracks prove not even Daniel Andrews is immune to the third-term curse

Almost a decade ago, when former New Zealand prime minister John Key won a third term in office, he knew his government’s days were numbered.

“There’s always a risk with third-term governments that they get arrogant,” he warned shortly after the win.

It’s believed that Premier Daniel Andrews will step aside as leader before the next state election. Credit: Jason South

Sure enough, by 2017, Key could see the writing on the wall and left. Kiwis weren’t willing to offer his tired-looking centre-right National Party a fourth term and instead opted for something shiny and new.

Privately, some ministers within the Andrews government are having a similar moment of introspection as signs emerge that their party might be running out of puff.

Whatever your politics, it’s impossible to deny the sheer dominance of the Labor government led by Daniel Andrews – who has become one of the most dominant political figures of our time. But if you look closely, hairline cracks are starting to appear.

I don’t mean the obvious issues such as mounting debt or the cancellation of the Commonwealth Games, either. Like scientists monitoring polar ice sheets, it’s the smaller fractures that expose the problems that exist below the surface.

The recent behavioural issues shown by some MPs is indicative of the kind of arrogance that can dog a government after too much time on the treasury benches.

Andrews is understandably furious at misbehaving members, the majority of which were elected after 2018, but as one minister observed, “it’s mainly the new ones acting up, the ones that have never known the agony of opposition and think the good times will roll forever”.

While such longevity in office enables governments to portray themselves as indispensable, it also allows them to amass scandals.

Compared with the newly installed Labor governments in Canberra and NSW, where they are championing anti-corruption bodies and referring their own ministers for allegedly breaching the ministerial code, the Victorian government has never looked more worn out. Not least because of its sustained campaign to discredit the state’s integrity body ahead of the release of Operation Richmond, which investigated dealings between the Andrews government and the Victorian firefighters’ union.

Compared with Victoria, NSW Premier Chris Minns and Prime Minister Anthony Albanese look shiny and brand new.Credit: Brook Mitchell

Nearing its 10th year in office, the government is also facing some serious personnel problems. Left-leaning political advisors now have the pick of mainland governments to work in, while its ministry isn’t quite what it used to be. The mass exodus of ministers ahead of the 2022 election saw more than 90 years of parliamentary experience vanish with the resignation of Richard Wynne, Martin Pakula, James Merlino, Lisa Neville and Martin Foley.

While their departures could have been an opportunity for the government to rebrand itself, it seems to have had the opposite effect, with decision-making becoming even more centralised.

Perhaps this goes someway to explaining the scarcity of innovative reforms.

One of the government’s signature pieces – its housing strategy – was due to be announced this month, but the deadline is now expected to be missed. Promised infrastructure projects also remain on hold pending the outcome of a federal review, and even with parliament in recess for September, the legislative agenda for the rest of the year is looking thin.

Sifting through the government’s announcements from the past week, it’s more reflective of a local municipality than that of a state whose capital is technically the largest in the country.

There was a minister announcing mandatory inspections of showbags, a new round of grants for fishing clubs and – my personal favourite – the government offering its support for the release of six mice at Wilsons Promontory.

Dare I say it, there are shades of the Abbott/Turnbull/Morrison era, another long-term government which lost its way, beginning to emerge.

In 2019, after an unexpected victory, the Morrison government tinkered at policy edges until the COVID-19 pandemic forced it out of its inertia. Until then, its biggest achievement was to bolster penalties for fruit fondlers caught shoving sewing needles into strawberries.

While the Andrews government cannot be written off just yet, these cracks prove it is susceptible to the curse facing all third-term administrations.

And it’s slowly dawning on the opposition that framing the Labor government as tired, out-of-touch and bereft of solutions, is its strongest campaign strategy ahead of 2026.

When compared to the Coalition in Victoria, Labor is still a top-notch political machine. And with Andrews’ rumoured departure fast approaching, the state government will be handed a rare opportunity to revitalise itself. How MPs respond will determine whether Labor can stay in power in for a historic fourth term.

Annika Smethurst is state political editor.

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