Six graphs that reveal Closing the Gap outcomes since Rudd apology

In February 2008, when then prime minister Kevin Rudd apologised to Indigenous Australians, the iPhone was new, George W Bush was in the White House and Low by Flo Rida and T-Pain was top of the charts. A lot has changed, but First Nations people still live shorter, unhealthier and poorer lives.

As well as saying sorry for the stolen generations and other past government policies, Rudd committed to “righting the wrongs of the past”. Then opposition leader Brendan Nelson pledged his “unconditional support” and that year the Closing the Gap framework was born.

Fifteen years later, one of the strongest arguments made by the Yes campaign for the referendum on the Indigenous Voice to parliament is the gap is not closing quickly enough. Indigenous Australians Minister Linda Burney told the National Press Club in July: “For too long governments have made policies for Indigenous Australians, not with Indigenous Australians. We need the Voice to change that.”

The lack of First Nations input into policy was one of the flaws of the original Closing the Gap framework. Catherine Liddle, chief executive of SNAICC, the peak body for Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander children, says the original goals were set by government without enough consultation.

“That was the old way of making decisions,” Liddle says. “You need people at the table who are experiencing what’s going on to say ‘that’s an interesting data set and that’s an interesting gap, but if we’re going to focus on it, let’s look at the actual drivers’.”

The original framework did not include a number of important metrics for the health and wellbeing of First Nations people, such as the rate of children in out-of-home care, the rates of incarceration for young people and adults, and the rate of deaths by suicide.

Liddle says you could argue that having a Voice or more extensive consultation in 2008 would have resulted in better goals and more progress.

It took until 2020 before the Closing the Gap framework was overhauled in consultation with a coalition of more than 50 Indigenous peak bodies including SNAICC. There are now 17 goals and new benchmarks, mostly based on a more recent baseline.

Even so, as the Productivity Commission recently reported, progress is “slow, unco-ordinated and piecemeal”. In July, four targets were on track to be met, nine were improving but not on target for the goal, and four were going backwards.

The original 2008 goals are not on track either, as five of these six graphics show. One, preschool participation, seems like a win, but there is more to the story.

1. To close the life expectancy gap within a generation

The nominated deadline for this goal, both now and in 2008, is 2031. The trajectory suggests a miss.

The life expectancy of Indigenous babies born between 2015 and 2017 is better than for those born a decade earlier. But the life expectancy of non-Indigenous babies has also improved, so the gap has not narrowed much.

Indigenous males can expect to die 8.6 years before non-Indigenous males and Indigenous females live 7.8 years fewer on average than their non-Indigenous counterparts.

Indigenous people are more likely to die earlier from coronary heart disease, diabetes, chronic lower respiratory diseases, lung and related cancers, according to the Australian Institute of Health and Welfare (AIHW).

The suicide rate is also more than twice as high as the general population and worsening. The Productivity Commission found the suicide rate for Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander people was 27.1 per 100,000 in 2021. That was up from 25 per 100,000 in 2018.

The Australian Bureau of Statistics reports there were 12 suicide deaths per 100,000 in the general population in 2021, the lowest national rate since 2016.

2. To halve the gap in mortality rates for Indigenous children under five within a decade

This goal was a failure – the gap widened over the decade from 2008. As the graphic shows, Indigenous children are more than twice as likely to die before the age of five than the rest of the population.

Child mortality has fallen for both Indigenous and non-Indigenous children but the gains have been much stronger for non-Indigenous children.

Most child deaths are infants, aged less than one year, and the main cause for Indigenous babies is perinatal conditions such as birth trauma, foetal growth disorders, complications of pregnancy, respiratory and cardiovascular disorders.

For Indigenous children aged one to four, about half of deaths were external causes such as car accidents, drownings and other accidents and injuries.

This metric is no longer part of the Closing the Gap framework.

One of the replacement measures is birth weight. Nationally in 2021, AIHW figures show 87 per cent of Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander babies have a healthy weight, compared with 92 per cent for the general population.

3. To ensure access to early childhood education for all Indigenous four-year-olds in remote communities within five years

The original 2008 goal was focused on access to preschool in remote communities. Burney’s office has clarified this was always measured by looking at the overall data on preschool participation.

The Closing the Gap target is for 95 per cent of Indigenous children to be enrolled in a preschool program in the year before school. As the graphic shows, we’ve exceeded that.

In 2022, 99.2 per cent of Indigenous children attended preschool in the year before school, higher than the non-Indigenous population. Enrolments were lower in remote and very remote communities at 78.1 per cent.

While preschool participation is a bright spot, it is not the full story. Liddle says it does not make up for the fact Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander children are already behind their peers at this age. National figures from 2021 show only one in three Indigenous children are developmentally on track when they start school.

Liddle says the original focus on preschool was because of data showing for the majority of the population preschool attendance made you more likely to finish school, enter a trade or university, and have successful life outcomes.

“What it didn’t allow for was that Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander children weren’t doing as well in the early developmental gains,” she says. “If you start preschool with a gap, then you can expect that gap to get larger at every single stage of your educational journey.”

Liddle says the focus should be on supporting families in the first five years of life, including eliminating poverty and ensuring they have everything they need to support their children.

Liddle says the first couple of years of life are when children are at greatest risk of being removed from their families. Yet the Productivity Commission reports that of the $8.2 billion spent nationally on child protection in 2021-22, only 16 per cent went to prevention or early intervention such as family support.

“People talk about a broken system, but the system’s not broken, the system is designed to remove children and to place them into out of home care,” Liddle says.

“Children get the best results when they grow up with their families, if their families are strong. We know that at every stage of the decision-making tree, we see that ... the decisions are significantly harsher for Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander families and children.”

4. To halve the gap in reading, writing and numeracy achievements for children within a decade

The gap between Indigenous and non-Indigenous children when they start school widens over time.

This graphic shows how Indigenous 15-year-olds score lower on literacy, numeracy and scientific literacy than their non-Indigenous counterparts. In the international PISA test, usually held every three years, non-Indigenous children are more than twice as likely to meet the minimum national standards as their First Nations counterparts.

The most recent available figures are from 2018 and show a decline in standards across the board compared with 2009. (The 2021 test was delayed until 2022 because of the COVID-19 pandemic and the results will be out this year.)

Looking at years 3, 5, 7 and 9 Naplan data reveals a similar trend, with the gap widening as children age.

5. To halve the gap for Indigenous students in year 12 attainment rates by 2020

The gap in learning outcomes also translates to finishing year 12.

In 2006, only 45.4 per cent of Indigenous people aged 20 to 24 had completed year 12 or an equivalent qualification. This compared with 82.9 per cent of the non-Indigenous population – a gap of 37.5 percentage points.

By 2021, more young people were finishing year 12 across the board, and the gap between Indigenous and non-Indigenous attainment narrowed to 22.6 percentage points.

But the gap is a long way off being halved, let alone closed.

In the new framework, the baseline year is 63.2 per cent in 2016 and the goal is 96 per cent. This new goal is also not on track.

The targets are also purely about finishing year 12 and do not consider grades.

6. To halve the gap in employment outcomes between Indigenous and non-Indigenous Australians within a decade

Lower unemployment means more Indigenous jobs, but also more non-Indigenous jobs. But the graphic shows the gap itself has not budged.

In 2008, 52 per cent of Indigenous people aged 15 to 64 were employed, compared with 74.4 per cent of non-Indigenous adults.

In 2021, 55.7 per cent of Indigenous people were employed, compared with 77.7 per cent for non-Indigenous people.

That means Indigenous people are 22 percentage points less likely to be employed, the same as in 2008.

The Productivity Commission is developing metrics around income, labour force participation and self-managed business owners.

While less likely to be working, First Nations people are more likely to be incarcerated. This was not measured in the 2008 framework but is part of the 2020 agreement.

In June 2022, the rate of imprisonment for Indigenous adults was up, while there was a decline in the rate of Indigenous young people aged 10 to 17 in detention.

The Productivity Commission found governments were taking a “business as usual” approach and progress on Closing the Gap was often undermined by ordinary decisions of governments.

Productivity Commission commissioner Romlie Mokak told a panel discussion in July that youth justice was a key example with states and territories making “contradictory” decisions.

“New bail laws in various jurisdictions, would ... predictably increase the rates of juvenile or young people incarcerated,” Mokak says.

“You can see the obvious tension that sits within a national agreement that has specific objectives, yet decisions made by governments are predictably going to move the dial in the opposite direction.”

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