‘I think he is gone’: The strange disappearance of China’s foreign minister Qin Gang

June 25 was a busy day for China’s Foreign Minister Qin Gang. He met with foreign ministers from Russia, Vietnam and Sri Lanka.

There was talk of enhancing Belt and Road cooperation, “neighbourhood diplomacy” and the implementation of Chinese President Xi Jinping’s global development initiative.

It was also the last time Qin was seen in public.

Power play: Chinese Foreign Minister Qin Gang (centre) with President Xi Jinping and top diplomat Wang Yi. Credit: Nathan Perri

The 57-year-old, whose meteoric rise through the foreign ministry saw him win fast friends and new enemies has not been seen in a month.

On Tuesday, China’s national legislature is due to convene an emergency session to review a draft criminal law amendment and “a decision on official appointment and removal”.

The details are thin – and the discussion may not include Qin – but the rumours swirling around his disappearance from illness to an extra-marital affair to a foreign ministry power play have heightened expectations his fate will be decided this week.

“I think he is gone,” said Willy Wo-Lap Lam, a senior fellow at the Jamestown Foundation and expert on Chinese elite politics from Hong Kong.

“His career is finished. There is no way that he will be allowed to resume his position.”

Since March 2013, the National People’s Congress has held nine non-regularly scheduled sessions, out of 75 sessions in total.

“What makes Tuesday’s session a true emergency session and sets it apart from those nine special sessions is the haste with which it was convened,” said Bill Bishop from Sinocism, a newsletter that specialises in Chinese politics.

“It was called just a day earlier, unlike the previous ones, which were all scheduled at least seven days in advance, as required by law in non-emergency situations.”

Beijing’s official line had been that Qin has been unwell. The explanation held for a couple of weeks, but few experts now believe that one of China’s top foreign affairs officials has been bedridden for a month without an update on his condition. Illness has also been used previously as an excuse by the Chinese government for officials who have fallen suddenly out of favour and disappeared.

Chinese Foreign Minister Qin Gang being interviewed by Chinese state TV anchor Fu Xiaotian. Credit: YouTube

Last week foreign ministry spokeswoman Mao Ning was left to front reporters without an answer. “I don’t know about the matter,” she said repeatedly.

Qin has missed meetings with leaders from the US, Europe, South East Asia and the Pacific during the past month.

“They could engineer any situation – he has a terminal case of cancer or whatever – but few people will believe this excuse,” said Lam.

Chinese Foreign Minister Qin Gang.Credit: Reuters

China’s elite politics is a black box and confirmation of the reason for his absence may never materialise, but the silence has been filled with furious speculation in China and abroad.

The more intriguing and salacious reasons for his disappearance are a power struggle at the top of the foreign affairs ministry between Qin and his predecessor Wang Yi, dissatisfaction with his performance in failing to bring Europe closer to Beijing, and a rumoured affair with Chinese state TV anchor Fu Xiaotian, who hinted on Weibo that Qin may be the father of her child.

Qin rose, rapidly, too quickly for some, to the post of foreign minister. He was the first ambassador to the United States to be appointed directly to foreign minister in more than two decades, skipping over the vice foreign minister position in Beijing that his predecessors had occupied.

But he had a powerful ally in Xi.

The former foreign ministry spokesman served as Xi’s aide, organising his trips overseas and became a confidant of the most powerful Chinese leader since Mao Zedong.

Chinese Foreign Minister Qin Gang, at a signing ceremony as China’s President Xi Jinping applauds in the Great Hall of the People. Credit: AFP

That relationship saw him posted to Washington, and then within two years back to Beijing, to take up the foreign minister’s role which Wang had occupied for almost a decade.

Wang and his boss Yang Jiechi had formed a formidable duo at the top of China’s foreign affairs hierarchy for most of Xi’s time in power.

But when Yang retired last year, Qin, one of a group of Chinese officials aged in their 50s who have tied their rise to Xi’s growing control, stepped up.

“How they’re going to finesse this situation is a serious challenge because of his formerly close relationship with Xi. His helicopter ride to the top was made possible only because of Xi Jinping. Now it’s part of a power struggle within the foreign ministry,” said Lam.

“Xi Jinping is very good at policy statements but bad at basic administration.”

Qin oversaw a deterioration in US-China relations in Washington and had few other notable accomplishments to his name before becoming foreign minister.

His record has not improved in his six months in office, particularly in managing China’s relations with Europe, where Xi had hoped to draw more governments away from the US-led order. Instead, Qin’s tenure has seen the opposite occur (with the exception of France) as Germany, Italy and Britain move closer to the foreign policy goals of Washington and Brussels.

But it is the rumours of the affair with Fu, a glamorous TV anchor who is said to hold US citizenship and has interviewed International Olympic Committee chief Thomas Bach and fashion designer Diane von Furstenberg in the past year, that has lit up Chinese social media.

TV anchor Fu Xiaotian interviews designer Diane von Furstenberg.

“It’s impossible to impose a water-tight control over the media and what people are thinking about,” said Lam.

Fu’s last tweet was of her in a private jet with her baby son.

“Last time flying alone with this aircraft was from LA to DC for a work visit, and that both happily and sadly turned to be the very last interview I did with Talk with World Leaders,” she wrote, next to a photo of her with Qin.

On Weibo on March 19, Qin’s birthday, she wished “Happy Birthday Dad” with a photo of her son, but did not name the married father-of-one.

Fu has not been heard from publicly since.

The match would suit the urbane Qin, a fan of poet T.S. Eliot who attempted to moderate China-US relations and failed. In one of his last appearances in the US in December, he shot free throws at the Washington Wizards NBA game.

If he is replaced, Ma Zhaoxu - a former ambassador to Australia and one of Canberra’s key contacts in negotiations over economic sanctions and detained Australians Cheng Lei and Yang Hengjun - is tipped to move into the foreign minister’s role.

Ma’s elevation could be beneficial for Australia, but the ongoing instability has been counterproductive for Beijing and the world.

“The episode illustrates that the opaque way of doing things could be detrimental to the interests of the party and also the country’s foreign policy,” said Lam.

“It has a chilling effect because it shows that Chinese foreign policy is hostage to a power struggle within the party.”

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