‘Can’t get much lower’: Pesutto’s Coalition sinks to new low in polls

Support for John Pesutto’s Victorian Liberal-National Coalition has slumped to a fresh low as Daniel Andrews’ third-term government maintains a powerful lead, ahead of a crucial byelection in the seat of Warrandyte.

An exclusive survey conducted by Resolve Strategic for The Age puts Labor’s primary vote 15 points clear of the opposition due to a dramatic drop in support for the Victorian Liberal Party, which has recorded a primary vote of just 23 per cent.

Victorian Premier Daniel Andrews and Opposition Leader John Pesutto.Credit: Monique Westermann

While Labor’s support has decreased just 1 point in the past two months, the Coalition’s primary vote is now 26 per cent, down from 30 per cent in April and 34 per cent at the November election.

The findings follow the Liberal Party’s state council meeting in Bendigo in May, at which Pesutto was heckled and booed by dozens of Liberal members who staged a walkout as tensions flared over the decision to expel upper house MP Moira Deeming from the parliamentary party.

The poll was also conducted during a difficult period for Labor following the release of a scathing report by the corruption watchdog, which found the government improperly awarded a $1.2 million contract to a Labor-affiliated union.

It also included the release of the state budget, which introduced billions of dollars of new taxes, public service cuts and delays to major infrastructure projects.

The Liberal Party currently holds just 19 of 88 seats in the lower house, 11 of which are held by a margin of less than five per cent.

Resolve Strategic director Jim Reed said while it is still early in the election cycle, the fall in the party’s primary vote would make it hard for MPs in marginal seats to retain them if a similar result were replicated at the next election.

“The Coalition’s vote, and that of the Liberals in particular, can’t get much lower,” Reed told The Age.

“The West Australian Liberals and Nationals won just six out of 60 seats in the 2021 election from a primary vote of 25 per cent, and that’s about where their colleagues are in Victoria right now. It’s not a pretty benchmark.”

As part of the government’s plan to repay soaring debt, the May budget also removed a payroll tax exemption on some high-fee private schools, which the opposition has vowed to repeal if elected, driven by concerns it will force up fees at independent schools.

But the budget measure, which has since been watered down by the state government, has support among voters. Forty per cent of respondents backed the broad payroll tax changes that also included a 0.5 per cent tax increase for businesses with payrolls over $10 million, and an additional 0.5 per cent for businesses with wage bills above $100 million.

Only 26 per cent of respondents opposed to the tax hike, while one third were undecided.

But a new levy on property investors that will mean landlords get hit with an average tax increase of $1300 a year – based on someone with landholdings with a value of $650,000 – was less popular.

The research shows the measure, which will hit about 860,000 Victorians, is opposed by 39 per cent of respondents while 33 per cent support the additional land tax levy. A further 28 per cent of respondents were undecided.

Reed said while Labor’s debt repayment measures were not overwhelmingly popular, they were not enough for people to desert the government for the opposition.

“Andrews and Labor have obviously judged that picking on those with investment properties and kids at private schools does not unduly eat into the loyal constituencies they have built up. This is data-driven democracy, and it’s impressive to watch in a way,” he said.

Andrews has also held on to his strong lead over Pesutto as preferred premier. He leads the opposition leader by 23 points, representing a slight widening of the gap compared with the April result.

Dr Zareh Ghazarian, a senior politics lecturer at Monash University, said the findings suggested the problems facing the Liberals extended beyond the party’s leadership and indicated a deeper brand problem, which could make for a “dangerous byelection”.

“There is something that really isn’t working in the Victorian division. There have been windows of opportunity for the party to present itself as a strong alternative, but instead they have let it slip through their fingers while they talk about themselves,” Dr Ghazarian said.

“There is no evidence the Liberals are recovering, and that should make them nervous about Warrandyte because if they continue in this cycle, it will be a dangerous byelection.”

Pesutto told the Melbourne Press Club on Wednesday that the Warrandyte byelection would be a tough fight. “Party members understand we’ve got a lot of work to do,” he said.

“Reform was never going to be easy, and we’ve come off three election losses, so we’ve got a lot of work to do.”

Labor is still deciding whether to run in the byelection, to be held in August or September, which was triggered by the resignation of Liberal Ryan Smith, who holds the seat by a 4.2 per cent margin.

The Liberal Party’s preselection for Warrandyte will be held on June 18.

As part of its research, Resolve Strategic asks Victorians to explain the reasons they support either party. The latest findings indicated Andrews’ COVID leadership and longevity in office are driving his support.

“They’ve been in power for a long time now, and proven that they can provide good leadership,” one voter said.

Voters who supported other parties were primarily concerned about the state’s rising debt and cost blowouts on infrastructure projects.

“Although the Libs are few and dispirited, I think they’re still a better choice of the state and the economy,” another voter said.

The survey was conducted in two stages in May and June.

Get the day’s breaking news, entertainment ideas and a long read to enjoy. Sign up to receive our Evening Edition newsletter here.