By Annika Smethurst and Rachel Eddie
Opposition Leader John Pesutto’s future could hinge on whether the Liberal Party survives a byelection in Melbourne’s outer north-east after he was blindsided by the resignation of a former minister who blamed the “negative tone of politics” for his sudden exit.
A messy preselection looms to replace Ryan Smith, who announced his resignation on Wednesday, in the seat of Warrandyte, which takes in the suburbs of Doncaster East, Donvale, Ringwood North, Warrandyte and Wonga Park.
Former Liberal member for Kew Tim Smith, who left politics after a drunken car crash in 2021, and his former staffer and political ally Caroline Inge – the party’s federal vice-president – have both declared an early interest in the seat.
Speaking from London, where he has been living since late last year, Tim Smith told The Age that his interest in rebooting his political career was driven by his ongoing “desire to remove the Andrews government”.
“It would be fair to say that the Liberals, in the past six months, have spent more time attacking each other than Labor,” he said. “Their attacks on the government, as Paul Keating once said, are like being flogged with a warm lettuce.”
Former shadow attorney-general Tim Smith is considering a return to politics.Credit: Paul Jeffers
Tim Smith’s potential candidacy comes as a blow to Pesutto, who said he would work with the Warrandyte membership and the organisational wing of the party to pick a strong candidate.
“I would very much like to see a woman in amongst the candidates,” he said.
“We’re going to throw everything at it. We know how important it is to retain the seat and to work very hard toward that end … We know this will be a challenge that we will throw ourselves into.”
Liberal Party member Sarah Overton, who lives in the area, has also been touted as a contender and is expected to receive strong support from senior women within the party. She declined to comment.
The Age spoke to eight women suggested as possible contenders by two dozen Liberal Party sources, speaking on condition of anonymity to discuss party matters, but Inge was the only woman to confirm she was considering running. Two ruled out joining the fray due to recent dramas in the party.
Tim Smith in 2021 with his then electorate officer, Caroline Inge. Credit: Justin McManus
Inge, who used to work for Tim Smith and was one of the first on the scene after his Hawthorn car crash in 2021, is also one of his closest political allies. She confirmed she was “strongly considering” a tilt and said she had the support of party members and senior MPs.
“The Liberal Party needs more bright and experienced women who will take the fight up to the Andrews Labor government,” Inge said.
Opposition education spokesman Matt Bach ruled out on Wednesday moving from the Legislative Council.
Angry supporters of Moira Deeming booed and heckled Liberal leader John Pesutto on May 20 at the party’s state conference in Bendigo.Credit: Penny Stephens
Liberal MPs speculated the byelection would present a new leadership test for Pesutto, who was booed and heckled by dozens of Liberal members in May over his support for the expulsion motion against upper house Liberal MP Moira Deeming.
Pesutto was dealt a second blow on Wednesday as Deeming told The Age she had sent the opposition leader a fresh defamation concerns notice.
“It’s a second notice, independent of the first,” she said.
A concerns notice is the first step in making a formal defamation complaint and potentially launching legal proceedings. In May, Deeming sent her first notice, relating to material distributed by the leader’s office prior to her expulsion from the party room.
Credit: Matt Golding
Three frontbench Liberal MPs told The Age Pesutto would face an immediate spill motion if the Liberal Party failed to retain the seat of Warrandyte.
“If we lose, he is gone,” one said.
A date for the byelection, which would be held in August or September, will be set once Ryan Smith vacates the seat on July 7. Smith is entitled to a payout of about $96,000 when he vacates the traditionally safe Liberal seat, which he leaves with a 4.2 per cent margin.
Pesutto, who paid tribute to Ryan Smith’s 16 years in public office, was not warned about the resignation.
“I learned about Ryan’s decision to resign this morning, when I read the statement like everybody else this morning,” he said on Wednesday.
Ryan Smith, a former Napthine government minister, flagged his intention to run for the Liberal leadership after last year’s election loss. He pulled out of the race and was then dumped from the Coalition’s frontbench.
He was facing a possible co-ordinated preselection challenge before the 2026 state election, as one of the 11 Liberal MPs who voted against the motion to expel Deeming.
In a statement, he said it had been a privilege to serve.
“My role as a community representative has brought me into contact with an amazing array of people throughout the electorate, and I have valued the opportunity to work with and for them all,” he said.
“However, amongst other reasons, I have become increasingly uncomfortable with the growing negative tone of politics, both internally and more broadly.”
Buoyed by the party’s unexpected win in the federal seat of Aston, Labor is considering whether to contest the byelection. One senior party source, speaking on condition of anonymity to discuss party matters, said the decision would be made within a fortnight.
The Labor figure said the party was inclined not to contest the byelection given the campaign could cost more than $200,000 and the Labor government was in its third term and had just handed down a budget to raise taxes that would hit aspirational outer-suburban families.
ABC election analyst Antony Green said some conditions for Labor’s upset win in Aston were not visible in Warrandyte, noting the Andrews government was in its ninth year and had just handed down a tough budget that might not be popular in the electorate.
Even if Labor does not contest, Green said it could become problematic for the Liberals if internal tensions played out during preselection.
“If the preselection ends up as a proxy battle over the party’s direction and the party’s leadership, then it’s bad news for the Liberal Party,” Green said.
“A week and half after a budget, when attention should be on the government, this perhaps puts the attention back on the opposition.“
With Sumeyya Ilanbey
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