One in 10 say they’re unlikely to vote in Voice referendum

Millions of Australians are yet to commit to casting a ballot on the Indigenous Voice despite competing efforts from Yes and No campaigners to galvanise the community on the issue, with 10 per cent of voters saying they are unlikely to vote and another 9 per cent unsure about doing so.

The exclusive findings of a Resolve Political Monitor poll heighten the pressure on the rival campaigns to convince Australians to turn out at polling stations for the referendum later this year, with the contentious reform likely to stand or fall on the verdict from voters who remain unsure about the change to the Constitution.

But the survey shows that 58 per cent of voters back the Voice and only 42 per cent oppose the change when people are asked a Yes or No question without the option of saying they are undecided.

The findings show that support for the Voice is holding steady despite a blunt rejection of the draft proposal from Opposition Leader Peter Dutton, who dismissed the plan as a “Canberra Voice” and vowed to campaign against it because he wanted to see local and regional bodies set up instead.

In a sign of the divisions in the Liberal Party on the issue, Tasmanian Liberal Premier Jeremy Rockliff joined Prime Minister Anthony Albanese in Hobart on Monday to argue for the Yes case and launch a “run for the Voice” by former Liberal MP Pat Farmer.

The new survey was conducted by Resolve Strategic for The Age and The Sydney Morning Herald from Wednesday to Sunday, a period of intense media attention on Dutton’s argument against the Voice while he campaigned on Indigenous health and safety in Alice Springs.

The survey confirms the national majority in favour of the change, with no sign of momentum for the No case despite Dutton’s warning to voters, but it also highlights the uncertainty over the outcome when only 81 per cent of voters said they were likely to cast a ballot.

A “rolling track” of surveys over the past two months, using a larger sample size to allow a state-by-state breakdown, shows a majority in favour of the Voice in each state as well as nationwide.

“On the face of it, this majority support in a majority of states should give the Yes campaign some comfort,” said Resolve director Jim Reed.

“However, support is following a clear downward trajectory from the highs of 80 per cent a year ago, and the end result later this year is likely to be a close-run thing. The new ballot paper wording and the turnout figures are doing very little to bolster the Yes vote.”

The new findings on voter turnout come after No advocates launched an advertising campaign against the Voice, while supporters of the Yes case have begun election-style door-knocking campaigns.

Both sides are raising cash in the hope they can win the day with mainstream advertising blitzes, with Australian billionaire Anthony Pratt donating $1 million to the Yes side last month.

Australian Electoral Commissioner Tom Rogers urged people to enrol for the referendum and said his staff were working to make sure Indigenous Australians were able to cast their ballots.

“We are doing as much as we possibly can to remind people of their obligation but we [will be] doing even more once the date of the referendum is known,” Rogers told the ABC. Voting at a referendum is compulsory, as it is at an election.

There were 17.2 million people enrolled to vote at the last federal election, according to a tally by the Australian Electoral Commission on April 21 last year, and 94.8 per cent turned out to vote.

The 1999 referendum on a republic saw 95.1 per cent voter turnout but the new Resolve Political Monitor suggests this year’s referendum could fall below that level. Only 79.5 per cent of eligible Australians voted in the 2017 postal survey on marriage equality, which was not compulsory.

The new survey finds that 81 per cent of voters are likely to cast a ballot but that 10 per cent say they are unlikely to do so and 9 per cent are unsure about whether they will do so.

While 89 per cent of those in favour of the Voice said they were likely to cast a ballot, 87 per cent of those against the Voice said the same. Only 56 per cent of those who were undecided on the issue said they were likely to vote.

A decision by 10 per cent of voters to skip the referendum would cut 1.7 million ballots from the final count, highlighting the importance of “get out the vote” campaigns to shift the outcome.

In the first question on the issue, the latest survey presented voters with the most recent version of the government’s draft wording and found that 46 per cent were in favour of the change, 31 per cent were against and 22 per cent were undecided. This was largely unchanged from the results of the March survey.

In a subsequent question, the survey asked voters to indicate their position “even if it’s a leaning” and gave them no option to say they were undecided in order to match the Yes or No options in the actual referendum.

On the second question, 58 per cent said Yes and 42 per cent said No. The changes over the past month were within the margin of error, given the March survey found 57 per cent were in favour and 43 per cent were against. Importantly, the wording of the question changed in the most recent survey to reflect the latest draft from the government, issued on March 23.

The March 23 version of the amendment to the Constitution says: “The Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander Voice may make representations to the Parliament and the Executive Government of the Commonwealth on matters relating to Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander peoples.”

Liberal MP Julian Leeser, who quit last week as the Coalition spokesman on Indigenous Australians because he could not support Dutton’s policy, has decided to back the Voice at the referendum but will campaign for changes to the draft because he believes the power of the Voice should be put in legislation rather than the Constitution.

The draft amendment from the government also says: “The parliament shall, subject to this Constitution, have power to make laws with respect to matters relating to the Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander Voice, including its composition, functions, powers and procedures.”

Albanese has emphasised that this ensures parliament can determine the power of the Voice, but Liberal MPs including Keith Wolohan fear that activist judges on the High Court would one day expand the power of the group so it could demand advance notice of a government decision on any matter.

Liberals are at odds over their final position because they were presented with papers that set out the case for a national voice created by legislation when they debated their policy in a meeting in Canberra on April 5.

Dutton emerged from that meeting to call for regional and local voices instead, making no mention of the national voice put to the meeting.

“A bidding war by public servants for more bureaucrats sitting in Canberra or Darwin is not going to fix the problem in Alice Springs,” Dutton said alongside Coalition Senator Jacinta Nampijinpa Price, another critic of the Voice.

Albanese responded on Monday by declaring the Voice would ensure “recognition through consultation” because First Australians would have input into federal policies.

“This is an opportunity to change the nation for the better. This is an opportunity where every Australian can do their bit, to have their say and to advance reconciliation in the best way that they can,” he said.

In an interview on ABC’s 7.30 on Monday night, Albanese also confirmed the Attorney-General would release the Solicitor-General’s advice on the wording of the referendum question.

Rockliff, the most senior Liberal in government in Australia following the defeat of former Liberal premier Dominic Perrottet in the NSW election on March 25, said he would be “proudly voting Yes” in the referendum.

The Tasmanian premier made no criticism of Dutton but said a new approach was needed when Indigenous Australians suffered compared to others on measures such as education, incarceration, life expectancy and employment.

“Whichever way you cut it, we have failed as a nation in many respects in these areas. And it’s high time we took responsibility and found another way,” he said.

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