Dai Le, the perfect female Liberal candidate - rejected by NSW Liberals

Ahead of the 2015 state election, then NSW premier Mike Baird had one task for two of his most junior ministers. They were to secure the preselection of Vietnamese refugee Dai Le to the upper house Liberal ticket.

After her unsuccessful, but strong, tilts as a Liberal lower house candidate in the safe Labor seat of Cabramatta, Baird wanted Le in the upper house. He directed ministers Jai Rowell and Matthew Mason-Cox, from the party’s right faction, to make it happen. Instead, the duo picked a man who remains among the most low-profile MPs in the NSW parliament.

The new independent MP for Fowler, Dai Le.Credit: Peter Rae

Lou Amato is best known for being one of three MPs who launched a failed leadership spill motion against former premier Gladys Berejiklian during the 2019 abortion decriminalisation debate.

Dai Le, the newly elected federal member for Fowler, was identified by Baird as exactly the sort of candidate the Liberals must get into parliament, but factionalism within the Liberal Party prevailed. Now she is off to Canberra as an independent and Amato is a Liberal MP who has flirted with defecting to One Nation. (Baird ultimately dumped Mason-Cox and Rowell from cabinet for their actions.)

The Liberals’ federal result on Saturday was nothing short of disastrous, largely because of the unpopularity of Scott Morrison but also a monumental failure in candidate selection.

After watching the teal wave roll in, Premier Dominic Perrottet is acutely aware that picking strong, suitable candidates is critical if his ageing state government has any chance of success in the state election next March. But knowing and delivering are very different things.

The Liberals’ track record with preselection is not good. There is a well-documented under-presentation of women in state parliament; state Liberal MPs in both houses number 44, of whom only 12 are female. The two most recent Liberal vacancies in the upper house were handed to men.

Of course, tokenism is not the answer. Katherine Deves’ selection for Warringah, and Morrison’s unwavering support for someone who readily spouted inappropriate views that in no way advanced policy debate, demonstrated that candidates – male or female – must be thoroughly vetted and electable.

Labor has had better success in choosing good candidates, as shown in recent state byelections. Well-known South Coast obstetrician Michael Holland, who had long links to the community, seized Bega from the Liberals while Jason Yatsen-Li, a second generation Chinese-Australian, held Strathfield for Labor.

Of course, Labor does not always get it right. You need no more proof than Le’s win in Fowler in the federal election on Saturday. Kristina Keneally, the former premier who led NSW Labor to a crushing defeat in 2011, was parachuted into Fowler to sort out Labor’s internal squabbles over the party’s Senate ticket. The voters saw straight through Labor and turned to the local candidate who was far more representative than Keneally of the diverse community. The result? Labor lost a safe seat to an independent (who the Liberals had failed to keep).

Labor may have a slight edge in picking suitable candidates but its path to victory in March is far more complex than simply choosing good representatives. The federal result also reveals an ominously low primary vote for Labor in the area – too low, if it translates to the state election, for the party to win in western Sydney, where it will matter.

Federal Labor went backwards in Lindsay, which encompasses the ultra-marginal state Liberal seat of Penrith, and the result in Fowler spells disaster for the newly created state seat of Leppington, which is notionally Labor but by a wafer-thin margin.

There were mixed results for Labor in Banks on Saturday, and in what would worry party strategists, the ALP took a hit in booths in East Hills and Revesby – exactly in the areas where it needs to be picking up votes, not losing them, if it has any hope in the state election.

The federal election showed that the rule book has been rewritten – for both the Liberals and Labor. Votes have fragmented, and with an optional preferential system in NSW, primary votes have never been more important. The task ahead is huge for Perrottet and Labor leader Chris Minns.