Australia’s emissions fell 5 per cent during first year of coronavirus pandemic

Australia’s greenhouse gas emissions fell 5 per cent during the first year of the coronavirus pandemic, fuelling federal government claims that it will beat its climate change pledges while it considers a bigger commitment.

Emissions fell sharply in transport and electricity in a trend that took annual output to its lowest level in decades, according to official figures that will intensify an internal Coalition debate on whether to commit to net zero emissions by 2050.

Melbourne’s Bourke Street Mall almost empty during lockdown. Credit: Justin McManus

At 494.2 million tonnes, the emissions in the year to March were the lowest since 1990, according to government figures that put the second-lowest figure at 508 million tonnes in 1995.

Energy Minister Angus Taylor will release the figures on Tuesday with a claim that emissions have fallen 20.8 per cent below the levels of 2005 in a trend that confirms the government can “meet and beat” its target for 2030 under pledges at the United Nations.

With other national leaders promising much deeper cuts, Prime Minister Scott Morrison is attempting to reach an agreement with Nationals leader and Deputy Prime Minister Barnaby Joyce to confirm the net zero target in time for a UN climate summit in Glasgow in November.

While several Nationals MPs oppose the idea of more ambitious targets, the latest federal figures suggest emissions fell over the year to March as the economy recovered from last year’s recession.

The Quarterly Update of the National Greenhouse Gas Inventory shows that emissions were 494.2 million tonnes in the year to March, which was 27.8 million tonnes or 5.3 per cent lower than in 2020. The figures have been released publicly since 2009 on a federal government website.

The government will use the figures to claim emissions were 3.2 per cent lower in the March quarter compared to the same period last year, even when the economy was 1.1 per cent larger over the same time.

Mr Morrison’s stated policy is to reach net zero “preferably” by 2050, but he is pressured to set a hard date for the target and to upgrade the government’s pledge to cut emissions by 26 to 28 per cent by 2030.

United Kingdom Prime Minister Boris Johnson, who will host the Glasgow summit, used a conversation with Mr Morrison on August 19 to ask him to set ambitious targets for net zero, while United States President Joe Biden has sent a similar message.

Jonathan Pershing, the deputy to Mr Biden’s climate envoy John Kerry, said last month the target of a 26 to 28 per cent reduction of emissions by 2030 had “been overtaken by events” and that Australia should present a “more ambitious effort” at Glasgow.

Mr Taylor has dismissed calls from other governments on the grounds that Australian emissions have fallen more steeply since 2005 than those in Canada, Japan, New Zealand and the US – a claim borne out by figures from those governments.

Opposition climate spokesman Chris Bowen has pledged stronger targets under a Labor government, saying a commitment to net zero by 2050 is the “essential starting point” of good climate policy.

Greens leader Adam Bandt highlighted the divide on climate in Parliament on Monday by attacking Labor and the Coalition for not stopping the developing of further coal and gas exports.

“People are worried, people are angry, no-one wants a gas-fired country or their future held to ransom – they want renewables, they want a healthy environment today, tomorrow and for generations to come,” Mr Bandt said.

The government figures show emissions from electricity generation fell 5.6 per cent in the year to March 2021, while transport emissions fell by 13.2 per cent.

The figures are also likely to intensify the government’s support for carbon capture and storage technology to bury emissions from resource projects.

The government estimates “fugitive emissions” from fossil fuel projects declined 8.3 per cent in the year to March, due in part to CCS at the Gorgon project developed by Chevron in Western Australia.

Stay across the most crucial developments related to the pandemic with the Coronavirus Update. Sign up for the weekly newsletter.