‘Risk has changed dramatically’: All of south-west should consider shot

Younger south-west Sydney residents should consider receiving the AstraZeneca vaccine, NSW’s peak medical bodies say, after 84 new COVID-19 cases were detected in the region on Monday.

There were a total of 112 new cases reported across Sydney, as modelling by medical research organisation the Burnet Institute claimed a Melbourne-style stage four lockdown was needed to bring case numbers down.

Premier Gladys Berejiklian said people in their 40s and 50s could now receive the AstraZeneca shot at state clinics as Sydney’s case numbers climbed.Credit: James Brickwood

It was the highest number of daily cases NSW had recorded since April 2020. There have now been 678 local cases since June 16, more than were recorded in the Crossroads Hotel or Avalon clusters last year.

Premier Gladys Berejiklian announced people in their 40s and 50s were now eligible for the AstraZeneca shot at NSW Health clinics, with new mass vaccination hubs at Macquarie Fields and Fairfield Showground in Sydney’s south-west to open this month.

“Until we get the extra doses we have to prioritise ... over 40s but of course if younger people want to access the AstraZeneca they should go to their GP,” she said.

Chief Health Officer Kerry Chant said NSW Health had decided to administer AstraZeneca to younger people and encourage people to bring forward their second dose to the six-to-eight week mark because “the current risk situation has changed dramatically”.

More than 10,000 teachers in the Fairfield, Liverpool and Canterbury-Bankstown local government areas will be eligible to receive their vaccinations at the showground.

“Everybody in that region needs to be considering the benefits of being vaccinated,” said Royal Australian College of GPs NSW/ACT chair, Dr Charlotte Hespe.

Dr Hespe said, while the health advice remained that Pfizer was the preferred vaccine for under 60s, south-west Sydney residents of any age should assess their risk and talk to a GP.

“No answer is best for everybody. It’s about saying: Who are you? What’s your work? And what are your family circumstances? Do you live with someone vulnerable?”

She agreed the risk of catching COVID-19 in Sydney, particularly in the south-west, had increased significantly over the past three weeks, advising unvaccinated people in their 40s and 50s to visit NSW Health clinics for the AstraZeneca shot as local GP appointments fill up.

“It’s a no-brainer – you should go to one of the newly set up hubs and get a vaccine,” Dr Hespe said.

There are 63 hospitalised COVID-19 patients in NSW. Twenty-five are under the age of 55, including 14 under the age of 35.

AMA NSW president Danielle McMullen agreed anyone over 60 should be booking for their shot immediately, and those under 60 should be having a conversation with their GP about whether they should get vaccinated now, particularly if they live in a hot spot area.

“There’s a preference for Pfizer, but we don’t know when Pfizer is coming,” she said, noting a change in the dose interval and community transmission may shift the risk equation for some young people.

Federal Health Minister Greg Hunt, who has previously encouraged under-60s to follow national advisory group ATAGI advice and wait for Pfizer, said NSW’s decision was “a particular response” to Sydney’s outbreak.

“That is in line with the ATAGI advice which has always been that those who are below the threshold in age may seek access on the basis of informed consent,” he said.

According to modelling released by the Burnet Institute on Monday evening, Sydney will need to move to Melbourne’s “stage four” restrictions to bring a halt to the spread of the Delta variant.

The mathematical modelling, which is yet to be peer reviewed, compared the likely outcomes of the Delta outbreak when using Victoria’s stage three restrictions, similar to Greater Sydney’s lockdown, and stage four.

It suggested that, while the state’s stay-at-home orders had averted a significant number of infections, it would not be effective enough to contain the outbreak, instead causing a plateau of about 30 infections a day, while stage four restrictions were projected to bring cases down within six weeks.

Director of the Burnet Institute in Melbourne Professor Brendan Crabb said the modelling suggested NSW’s existing restrictions would not be enough.

“What’s at stake here is a growing Delta epidemic in a highly unvaccinated population and clearly nobody wants to tolerate that,” Professor Crabb said.

“The modelling suggests that the hard and fast method is the best bet. You either snuff it out as quickly as you can or you take the longer road to do it. They are choices and the longer road is the riskier road.”

Under stage four restrictions, big retailers not providing essential goods would be closed, a nightly curfew would be implemented and a five kilometres limit on how far people can travel would be enforced.

However, Professor Catherine Bennett, Deakin University’s Chair in Epidemiology, said harsh measures like a nightly curfew and kilometre limit might not be required in NSW.

“I do think that the routes of transmission that they’re seeing in NSW should guide the interventions, not just putting things in place because they’ve been used elsewhere,” she said.

Asked if she would consider mandating non-essential retail stores to close if her government offered a wage subsdidy program, Ms Berejiklian said she did not want to “delve into hypotheticals”.

“But what I have said very clearly is, given where the numbers are, it is not likely, in fact, almost impossible for us to get out of lockdown on Friday,” she said.

University of Sydney clinical epidemiologist Fiona Stanaway said she believed, although the transmission risk in a shop was low, the issue was optics.

“If you have shops open where browsing is the main thing you do, it makes the message more complicated,” she said.

Sixteen cases on Monday were from south-eastern Sydney district, seven were from western Sydney and five were from Nepean-Blue Mountains.

Dr Chant said Fairfield, Smithfield, Bossley Park, Fairfield Heights, Fairfield West, Wakeley, Bonnyrigg, Glenfield and West Hoxton in south-west Sydney were seeing particularly high number of cases but she remained concerned about spread of the virus across the city.

On Monday evening, a number of new close contact venue alerts were issued for locations in Sydney’s west and east. They included 99 Bikes in Bondi Junction on Saturday between 12.45 and 2.45pm, Ware Street Medical Practice in Fairfield on Thursday from 2.40pm to 3.40 pm, Westpac Fairfield on Thursday between 1.20pm and 1.40pm, Mr Shawarma in Greenacre on Saturday between 8.30pm and 8.45pm, Cedar Valley Meats in Yagoona on Saturday between 1.30pm and 2pm and Priceline in Green Valley on Friday from 2.30pm to 3.15pm.

Close contact alerts were also issued for a number of bus routes in inner city, inner-east, north shore and south-west suburbs. They include the 170X bus between Sydney and Neutral bay, 438X Bus between Ultimo and Haymarket, 309 Bus between Redfern and Beaconsfield and 817 Bus between Fairfield Heights and Fairfield. A number of train routes between July 4 and July 10 were also added to the casual contact list.

COVID-positive residents of a 29-unit apartment block in Bondi have been moved to Special Health Accommodation after eight cases were recorded across five households.

The Premier said people had performed essential work or visited healthcare facilities with symptoms instead of getting a COVID-19 test.

Three of Monday’s cases were linked to a medical centre at Fairfield Heights and recent exposure sites in the area included multiple healthcare facilities as well as two immigration offices in Fairfield.

The state’s first 24-hour testing clinic will open at Fairfield West’s Endeavour Sports Park on Tuesday.

Victoria recorded four new COVID-19 cases linked to Sydney’s outbreak on Monday, just hours after it instigated a hard border closure with NSW.

The cases were two removalists who worked in Victoria and South Australia and a family of two who had been in Sydney in early July.

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