Higher vaccination targets for older Aussies before nation opens up

Australia’s plan to end COVID-19 lockdowns and begin reopening state and international borders will rely on at least 75 per cent of over-70s getting vaccinated but a lower proportion of younger Australians will need to have had the jab.

The Sunday Age and The Sun-Herald have learnt there will be no move from phase one to phase two of the plan – which the government hopes to achieve by the end of 2021 – before the number of over-70s who are fully vaccinated has passed at least 75 per cent and probably higher. Currently, 72.9 per cent of people over 70 have had at least one jab.

Vials of the AstraZeneca COVID-19 vaccine.Credit: Alex Ellinghausen

The number of people who will have to be fully vaccinated in younger cohorts is expected to be broken down into three age groups – potentially 50-70-year-olds, 40-50-year-olds and 18-40 -year-olds – which broadly reflects the current age groups of the rollout.

Vaccination thresholds for younger Australians will be lower than for the over-70s before the move to phase two but will still be high.

Under the four-phase plan to reopen Australia agreed by the state and federal governments, phase two – dubbed the “post-vaccination stage” – would ease restrictions on vaccinated residents, mean lockdowns were imposed only in extreme circumstances, restore inbound traveller caps for unvaccinated people and allow more vaccinated travellers to return.

The federal government has asked the Doherty Institute to provide modelling on vaccination targets and that work is expected back at the end of July.

Health Minister Greg Hunt told The Sunday Age and The Sun-Herald that “Australians are getting vaccinated and they realise it takes some time”.

“Opening up is likely to be a graduated staircase, a series of steps. The message is clear – we have to ease off carefully and open up carefully,” he said.

“Access to vaccines for the 40-59 group is about to open up significantly. And then we have a big population, about 7 million people, between 20 and 40 years of age and then about 1.3 million people between 16 and 20.”

Mr Hunt would not comment on what the vaccination targets for different age groups would be, pointing out the Doherty Institute work had not yet even been finalised. Several other members of the ministry contacted by The Sun-Herald and The Sunday Age were also shy given the sensitive nature of the work.

One minister, who asked not to be named, speculated the required vaccination rates could be 80 per cent for the vulnerable groups and over-70s, then 70 per cent and 60 per cent for lower-risk groups – but cautioned “that’s a guess”.

As well as protecting over-70s, who are more likely to become seriously ill or die from COVID-19, the tiered approach is expected to set higher targets for people who are immuno-compromised and Indigenous Australians, for example.

Epidemiology chair at Deakin University Catherine Bennett, Professor Sharon Lewin, who is director of Melbourne’s Doherty Institute but not involved in the government modelling, and Burnet Institute infectious diseases expert Suman Majumdar all backed the move to ensure higher vaccination rates for older and vulnerable Australians before reopening.

Lieutenant-General John Frewen, who is leading the vaccine rollout, signalled last week that under-40s would finally be able to access Pfizer jabs from late September or early October as the number of doses arriving in the country rises to 1 million a week in late July and then up to about 1.2 million a week in August.

COVID-19 taskforce commander Lieutenant General John Frewen.Credit: Alex Ellinghausen

The final decision on what the percentage vaccination targets should be, however, will ultimately be a decision taken by state and federal leaders and will take account of not just the Doherty modelling but also the impact of closed borders and lockdowns on the economy and society more broadly.

The federal government is increasingly confident that every Australian will have had a chance to be vaccinated by the end of 2021 as supply of the Pfizer vaccine ramps up and as Moderna and then Novavax vaccines arrive onshore.

Professor Lewin said higher vaccination targets for older Australians “makes a lot of sense”.

She suggested that reaching a high vaccination target for vulnerable groups could even be enough for Australia to progress to a new phase of the government’s road map out of COVID-19 restrictions.

Professor Lewin said there were two reasons for vaccination – to stop transmission and achieve herd immunity, and to protect the vulnerable and stop people getting sick.

“But the most important thing is protecting those most vulnerable, with very high vaccination rates of people over 60,” she said.

“I think that achieving that target alone could allow for movement between the phases, I don’t think it’s as simple as just getting to 60 per cent across the whole population, so I do think that the age-adjusted uptake of vaccination could well inform these phases.”

Professor Bennett said it made sense not only to have different vaccine targets for different ages, but also particular at-risk cultural groups and occupations, such as security guards and cleaners who moved between workplaces, aged care staff and meat workers.

“I think a lot of us have fielded the questions saying, ‘What’s the magic number?’,” she said. “It’s probably not going to be one. And it shouldn’t be one.”

Dr Majumdar backed higher targets for priority groups most at risk of getting very sick from COVID-19, as well as front-line and essential workers.

He said the highest priority group, most at risk of dying from COVID-19, would need to include those aged 70 or above, but should not be solely based on age and might also include people with suppressed immune systems and Indigenous Australians.

Dr Majumdar said for this group the goal should be a vaccination rate of 90 to 95 per cent, though he said the government should focus on ensuring access to vaccinations.

Australia reached the 9 million jab milestone on Saturday and it’s expected 10 million jab mark will have been reached within another 10 days. However, only a little over 10 per cent of people are fully vaccinated.

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