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Australia drops plan to use Kyoto credits to meet Paris climate target

By Bevan Shields and David Crowe

Prime Minister Scott Morrison will tell world leaders that Australia has abandoned a longstanding plan to use Kyoto carryover credits to achieve its emissions reduction targets, in a pledge that paves the way for a reset of his government's climate change policies.

The decision to drop the controversial Kyoto credits will be announced at a December 12 summit convened by British Prime Minister Boris Johnson, who has asked leaders for "ambitious" new commitments as a condition of speaking at the gathering.

Prime Minister Scott Morrison will announce a decision to drop Australia's use of carryover credits to meet climate targets.

Prime Minister Scott Morrison will announce a decision to drop Australia's use of carryover credits to meet climate targets.Credit: Alex Ellinghausen

Mr Johnson and United Nations secretary general Antonio Guterres are seeking stronger action ahead of the UN's major climate summit in Glasgow next year, with an agenda that seeks pledges from developed countries to reach net zero carbon emissions by 2050.

Mr Morrison's promise to reach Australia's 2030 target without using carryover credits is likely to be welcomed by other countries that have long criticised the accounting method, building goodwill for the Australian position going into the Glasgow summit.

The Prime Minister hinted on Thursday the government might not need to use the credits, telling Parliament he had "kept commitments and beaten commitments" in the past and would outline this in his speech to the British gathering.

The new stance will be a significant shift after years of government claims that Australia is entitled to use "surplus" units the country accumulated when meeting the Kyoto Protocol targets from 2008 to 2020 and count them toward the Paris targets from 2021 to 2030.

Kyoto credits explained

  • Australia's carryover credits come from its participation in an international climate agreement to reduce carbon emissions and curb global warming, known as the Kyoto Protocol.
  • The credits are the amount Australia exceeded its emissions reduction target for the first Kyoto period (2008-12) and the projected overachieved for Kyoto 2 (2013-2020). 
  • The Morrison government had planned to count the surplus towards Australia's commitment to the 2015 international agreement, the Paris accord, where Australia pledged to cut 2005-level emissions by 26-28 per cent by 2030.
  • Australia played hardball in negations over Kyoto targets. It was one of three nations - along with Norway and Iceland - permitted to increase its 1990 emissions by 2020 and was permitted to count savings from reduced land clearing, which has supplied almost all Australia's Kyoto "over-achievement".
  • Taken from 1990 to 2012 Australia's emissions from industry grew by about 28 per cent, but the reduction in emissions generated by land-clearing restrictions dragged Australia's emissions below the 8 per cent increase permitted. 

Nations from Senegal to Tuvalu used a United Nations climate conference in Germany last year to slam Australia's use of the credits.

The Climate Change Authority has estimated the approach effectively halved the country's promised cut, while former Australian climate negotiator Richie Merzian has called them a "dodgy" way to meet targets.

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Federal cabinet has not agreed on a final position but Mr Morrison is expected to use his speech to the British gathering, which he will deliver online, to go further than his most recent remarks on reaching the 2030 target without the credits.

"We will only use that carryover, though, to the extent that is required," he said in a speech to the Business Council of Australia on November 19.

"Let me be very clear. My ambition [and] my government's ambition is that we will not need them. And we are working to this as our goal, consistent with our record of over-delivering in these areas."

The latest figures on Australian greenhouse gas output showed the emissions fell to 513.4 million tonnes in the year to June, down from 529.5 million the previous year, an annual fall of 3 per cent and the lowest level since 1998.

The COVID-19 pandemic and recession have been major factors, with transport emissions falling to 19 million tonnes in the June quarter from 24.2 million in the March quarter due to social restrictions and a collapse in travel.

The official figures, released last Monday, came with an estimate that Australia would beat its 2020 target by 459 million tonnes including carryover credits and would beat it by 316 million tonnes without relying on those credits.

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The target for 2020 was to reduce emissions by 5 per cent from the level in 2000. The target for 2030, set by the Abbott government five years ago, is to reduce emissions by 26 to 28 per cent on the level in 2005.

Energy Minister Angus Taylor said on Monday the latest figures showed national emissions were already 16.6 per cent below the 2005 level, putting Australia on track to beat the Paris target.

Greenpeace responded by calling on the Morrison government to commit to "100 per cent renewables" and net zero emissions by 2040.

Britain's Conservative government has committed to net zero emissions by 2050, a target matched by Japan, South Korea, France and New Zealand.

Labor leader Anthony Albanese has pledged to deliver net zero emissions by 2050 if he wins the next election, but Mr Morrison has refused to offer a similar pledge despite arguing the target could be reached.

One government MP, Warren Entsch from the seat of Leichhardt in Queensland, argued in favour of a net zero target for 2050 in the Coalition party room on Tuesday, but the issue has the potential to revive years of Liberal and National division on climate targets.

Mr Morrison's plan to meet the 2030 target without carryover credits clears the ground for a stronger ambition on net zero emissions beyond his current stance of meeting the longer-term target some time after 2050 and before 2100.

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Mr Johnson, Mr Guterres, French President Emmanuel Macron, Chilean President Sebastián Piñera and Italian Prime Minister Giuseppe Conte sent Mr Morrison and other world leaders a letter in October calling for more action ahead of the December 12 meeting.

"There will be no space for general statements," the group said.

The letter said speaking slots at the gathering, to be held on the fifth anniversary of the Paris accord, would only be allocated on the basis of "ambitious" new commitments on emissions reduction, strategies to achieve net-zero emissions, new finance commitments or adaption plans.

Mr Johnson will this weekend announce the UK's new goal to cut 1990-level emissions by 68 per cent by 2030, up from the existing target of 57 per cent.

The new target would bind Britain to reducing its emissions by the fastest rate of any major economy to date, the Prime Minister said.

"But this is a global effort, which is why the UK is urging world leaders as part of next week's climate ambition summit to bring forward their own ambitious plans to cut emissions and set net zero targets."

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Original URL: https://www.smh.com.au/link/follow-20170101-p56ko3