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Ten graphs that show the rise and fall of Victoria's COVID-19 second wave
By Craig Butt
The last time, until Monday, that Victorians celebrated a day of no new coronavirus cases, was on June 9, more than four months ago.
Back then, there had been a total of 1687 cases confirmed in Victoria, but by this stage most of those infected had long since recovered. There were 64 active cases, seven people were in hospital because of the virus and 19 people statewide had died from it.
But from that day onwards, the daily case numbers kept rising. On July 6 there was a then-record number of 127 new cases, surpassing the biggest daily case increase from the first wave. That record didn’t last nearly as long - the next day there were 191 new cases. Over the next few weeks, another seven days were described as having the highest daily case increase until August 6, when 725 new cases were confirmed.
You can see how the numbers shot up in the first half of this graph, reaching a 14-day average of more than 450 in early August.
It’s in the second half of the graph that case numbers start to get under control. You can see some of the key milestones marked as dotted lines on the graphic.
As of October 27, the 14-day average has fallen to three, there are 87 active cases and five people in hospital because of the virus.
No new coronavirus cases have been confirmed for two consecutive days - the last time this happened was on March 5 and 6. Back then there were no lockdown restrictions in place in Australia and there had been 10 COVID-19 cases in total confirmed in Victoria, all of them returned travellers from overseas.
But in 139 days between those two days of zero cases, more than 18,000 people have contracted the virus and almost 800 of them have died.
This interactive map condenses the state’s second wave into a short animation. When you press the play button, you can see how active case numbers have risen and fallen in local government areas since June.
A large chunk of the map is unblemished in early June, but it doesn’t take long for areas in Melbourne’s north and west to start turning an ominous shade of burgundy as a result of the virus leaking out of hotel quarantine and taking hold in households.
The darkest shade on the colour scale is jet black, denoting when area had more than 200 active cases. Melbourne’s central business district is the first to pass this threshold, but 11 additional areas soon follow suit.
Now there are no municipalities with more than 20 active cases and 54 of the state’s 79 municipalities have no known active cases.
At the height of the second wave, there were 7181 active cases in metropolitan Melbourne and 484 in regional Victoria; now there are 85 active cases in Melbourne and two in regional Victoria.
You can see how the number of active cases has changed in your municipality using the graph below:
The drop in daily case numbers and active cases has also been accompanied by a drop in the number of people in hospital because of the virus.
In the middle of August the number of people in hospital because of the virus reached 675, and 47 intensive care beds statewide were occupied by people with severe COVID infections.
In Victoria, nobody has required intensive care treatment because of the virus for more than two weeks, and as of October 27 there are no ICU beds nationwide occupied by coronavirus patients.
But it’s worth noting that a net drop in hospital admissions and people needing intensive care carries a mixed message - it can be a sign that patients have made a full recovery and have been discharged, but it can also be a sign that people have succumbed to the virus.
This graph shows how far more deaths have been recorded in the state's second wave than its first:
Back when Victoria’s roadmap for reopening was outlined in early September, it might have seemed unlikely that the targets to ease restrictions set by the Andrews government would be met.
Regional Victoria was the first to meet its main reopening targets of a 14-day average under five and five or fewer mystery cases (infections that cannot be traced to a known cluster and which suggest the virus is circulating in the community) on September 16:
Metropolitan Melbourne easily met its initial target of a 14-day average between 30 and 50, driving that metric down to 20.3 by the September 28 target date.
The city’s next goal of getting the 14-day average under five and recording no more than five mystery cases in the lead-up to the planned reopening date proved a bit more elusive.
On October 19, the earliest day the city could move to its next step of lowered restrictions, the 14-day average was 7.7 and there had been 15 mystery cases over the previous fortnight.
The 14-day average fell below five on October 25:
As for mystery cases, there have been six recorded over the previous fortnight, but this tally will likely drop below five on Wednesday, in time for when Melbourne moves to its next stage of reopening.
If Wednesday does indeed turn out to be the third consecutive day of no new cases - a triple donut day - Melburnians will be able to commemorate it with a donut and a coffee at their local cafe.
Bonus 11th graph, added October 28. The number of active cases in regional Victoria dropped to zero on October 28: