By Judith Ireland
- Liberal leadership live: Stephanie Peatling blogs live from Parliament
- Malcolm Turnbull to challenge Tony Abbott
- Malcolm Turnbull's statement in full
- Poll points to Coalition win in Canning but Abbott may face snap challenge
- Analysis: Full Liberal focus shifts to Turnbull
The polls have been terrifying for Tony Abbott for as long as anyone can remember. He survived a "near death" leadership spill in February, only to face a conga line of inexplicable and dud moves since.
From eating a raw onion, to the Bronwyn Bishop chopper stopper and same-sex marriage party room chaos.
Then came the most recent eruptions: reports of devastating swings against the government in the seat of Canning ahead of the byelection and an incendiary hit list of ministers who would lose their jobs in a cabinet reshuffle.
But on Monday morning, Abbott's message as he faced down reports there were moves against him was: NOTHING TO SEE HERE. In Adelaide at a traffic management centre, he swore black, blue and aubergine that he was fine.
Mr Abbott and Mr Turnbull in Parliament on Monday.Credit: Alex Ellinghausen
"I am not going to get caught up in Canberra gossip," he said.
"I'm not going to play Canberra games. I know that sometimes the media particularly like to play the Canberra game but I'm just not going to get involved in it."
Canberra games, of course, have nothing to do with playing frisbee at Questacon. They relate to leadership speculation, which everyone knows journalists make up just to pass the time of day in boring Canberra.
Or do they?
Prime Minister Tony Abbott with Girl Guides at Parliament House in Canberra on Monday September 14, 2015.Credit: Andrew Meares
The signs from Abbott's colleagues were certainly ominous on Monday. While Finance Minister Mathias Cormann was out on the radio talking determinedly about jobs and the economy, both Bishops - Julie and Bronwyn - refused to re-endorse Abbott's leadership when doorstopped.
That's his deputy leader and ideological love mother.
Meanwhile, Social Services heavyweight Scott Morrison innocently said he had "no idea" what his colleagues were up to.
All this gave way to a subdued question time, with just a few jibes from Labor about Abbott's lack of frontbench support. But the opposition was surplus to requirements here, because by afternoon tea, the Prime Minister's leadership was visibly crumbling.
Malcolm Turnbull simply informed the media he would be "make a statement" at 4pm. It would not be to talk about the government's commitment to jobs and growth.
Soon, the ex-communications minister emerged into the balmy sunshine - with that talk show host grin - to announce that he had challenged Abbott for the leadership.
"This course of action has been urged on me by many people over a long period of time," he declared.
Abbott might have refused to buy into the "gossip" and dismissed the Canberra game, but it didn't matter.