This was published 8 years ago
Election 2016: Labor's odds blow out - but why?
By Michael Koziol and Nicole Hasham
Labor's odds of taking government on Saturday have blown out to $8.00 according to one betting agency, while the Coalition has narrowed to a near guarantee of $1.08.
Despite national polls remaining neck-and-neck in the final week of the campaign, the serious money has locked in behind the Turnbull government maintaining its majority.
"The longer the campaign has gone on, the more money that has come in for the Coalition," says Sportsbet spokesman Ben Bulmer. "Punters are telling us that the Coalition will win the election on Saturday."
For comparison, two days out from the 2013 election rout, the Coalition was paying $1.02 and Labor $12.00.
Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull and Opposition Leader Bill Shorten.Credit: Alex Ellinghausen
Thought this year's election was tighter than that? Well, you're right. Labor started the campaign at $3.25 – unlikely, but in with a shot. Those odds more likely reflect the closeness of the election, because they are based primarily on polling, marginal seat analysis and historical data.
Once the campaign begins and the betting ramps up, the odds are skewed by where punters are placing their money. And overwhelmingly, the serious money has favoured the government, boosted by a consensus among media commentators tipping the Coalition will hold.
"We've had three times the number of punters betting on Labor," Mr Bulmer says. "But the big money's coming for the Coalition. Three, four, five figure bets are coming in for the Coalition on a regular basis."
As this year's campaign has rolled on, it has become increasingly clear that while Labor may pick up in excess of 10 seats, it is unlikely to win the 19 seats it requires to form government.
That narrative is also reflected at Centrebet, where the Coalition has firmed to $1.10 and Labor has weakened to $7.00.
And it is evident in national polls – the most recent Fairfax-Ipsos poll showed 54 per cent of Australians think the Turnbull government will be re-elected.
But if the Brexit upset has taught us anything, it's that the polls, punters and pundits don't always get it right. Two days out from Britain's referendum, Sportsbet had "Leave" priced at $3.28 and "Remain" priced at $1.28. About three-quarters of the money in that market had backed Remain.
And on the day of last year's Queensland state election, the Liberal National Party was a $1.01 favourite to be re-elected – yet Labor pulled off a shock victory.
"It's becoming more volatile," Mr Bulmer says. "State governments are falling easily, prime ministers are being replaced at regular intervals and election results are becoming harder and harder to predict."
Labor has never been an odds-on favourite to triumph at Saturday's poll. Its high watermark came during Tony Abbott's leadership, paying even money with the Coalition at the time of the "empty chair" spill motion in February 2015.
Meanwhile, a survey of Fairfax Media readers in the final days of the campaign shows Mr Shorten is considered slightly more empathetic than Mr Turnbull, but the Prime Minister is ahead in perceptions of his capacity to lead.
The YourVote survey, in which almost 212,000 Australians have taken part, shows as of Wednesday this week users rated Mr Turnbull at about four out of 10 on empathy – slightly lower than in early June.
Mr Shorten was scored a little higher at almost 5.5 out of 10.
Around June 14, Mr Turnbull saw a dive in his perceived empathy and leadership qualities – coinciding with Labor's ramped-up criticism of the National Broadband Network, and a renewed push for the government to commit to a formal treaty with Indigenous Australians.
However his ratings soon bounced back, and leapt again in the four days following a Facebook leaders debate on June 17 – a contest the studio audience determined that Mr Shorten won.
As of Wednesday this week, Mr Turnbull's leadership rating was 5.6 out of ten, compared to Mr Shorten's score of 4.7.
Overall, the two men's leadership and empathy ratings remained similar to those at the beginning of June, among voters of all persuasions.