Trump has hurt one of America’s most lucrative industries

Donald Trump has inflicted enormous long-term damage on America’s defence export industry, a lucrative earner worth $US320 billion ($500 billion) a year in all its forms. Foreign defence sales are 10 times greater than US exports of liquefied natural gas.

First in line for collective repudiation is Lockheed Martin’s F-35 fighter jet. Mark Carney ordered a review of Canada’s order for 72 of these advanced aircraft within hours of becoming prime minister. It will determine whether “other options could better meet Canada’s needs”.

Donald Trump has inflicted enormous long-term damage on America’s $500 billion-a-year defence export industry.Credit: AP

Nuno Melo, Portugal’s conservative defence minister, says the F-35 is no longer considered a safe choice to replace his country’s ageing F-16s. “We have to know that an ally will be on our side whatever the circumstances,” he told Publico.

“The world has changed. This ally of ours, so predictable over the decades, could limit the use, maintenance, components, and everything needed to ensure that the aircraft are operational in all scenarios,” he said. Portugal is looking at a European alternative. Germany may be next.

“Nobody needs to buy an F-35,” said Tom Enders, ex-Airbus chief and now head of the German Council on Foreign Relations. He said Germany’s contract for these fighters was a misguided attempt by Angela Merkel to “appease” Trump during his first term. It should be cancelled forthwith.

Europe does not strictly need the US Patriot missile defence system either. The upgraded Franco-Italian SAMP/T rival is more or less “equivalent”.

“It is absolutely imperative that we free ourselves of dependence on US systems as far and as quickly as possible. We can’t simply close our eyes to the fact that this American government has become an adversary,” Enders said in an explosive interview with the Frankfurter Allgemeine.

He said Trump was likely to blackmail and coerce Europe in much the same way as he has coerced Ukraine. “No one believes any more that he will stand by Article 5 if Putin invades the Suwałki Gap,” he said.

One should be cautious of reading too much into share price movements. But it is striking that Lockheed Martin’s stock has dropped 23 per cent since late October, while Dassault Aviation has almost doubled in dollar terms on talk of more orders for the Rafale fighter aircraft. French missile maker Thales is up 90 per cent.

The European defence sector has seen an explosive rise over the last month, pushed even higher by Germany’s coalition deal for €1 trillion ($1.7 trillion) of rearmament and infrastructure – to be ratified this week by a constitutional amendment to the debt brake.

Enders, a no-nonsense parachute officer and ex-head of European defence group EADS, said the US has access to the operating system of F-35s. “We know the Americans can shut the thing down whenever they want. We are totally dependent,” he said.

Lockheed Martin’s stock has dropped 23 per cent since late October.Credit: George Frey

Experts disagree over what the Pentagon can or cannot do remotely to paralyse an F-35.

“There is no explicit kill switch. It’s not something that can be turned off on any given day,” said Justin Bronk, an aviation specialist at the Royal United Services Institute.

But the fact that this discussion is even going on in the highest circles of European defence and foreign policy exposes the complete collapse of confidence in the US military alliance. In my view, it is irreversible.

Enders has just launched Germany’s “Sparta” project, drafted by leading figures calling for immediate and massive German rearmament. It clearly has the backing of incoming chancellor Friedrich Merz.

Rather than trying to catch up with Russia in tanks and aircraft, Germany and Europe should together seek “asymmetric superiority” by building a drone wall on NATO’s eastern flank, according to Enders. This could be done very quickly and at a fraction of the cost. “We need tens of thousands of smart robots on the battlefield,” he said.

A few dozen people can make a thousand combat drones for less than it costs to make a Leopard 2 tank shell. “These drones can knock out enemy systems that cost several million with great precision,” he said.

Europe should also move fast to escape the clutches of Elon Musk’s Starlink. Enders said Eutelsat’s OneWeb could do much of the job if buttressed by the medium-orbit satellites of SES.

The focus should be on the “sharp end” of defence. Some of the weapons should be in the field in six to 12 months, but none beyond five years. “We’re not interested in a new arms system that takes 20 years,” he said.

Tom Enders, former Airbus chief and now head of the German Council on Foreign Relations.Credit: AP

Sparta includes a dash for “cloud-combat” hypersonic weapons, a European missile shield, as well as a joint nuclear deterrent in co-ordination with France and the UK that span the escalation ladder from tactical nukes to strategic missiles.

There have always been restrictions on how US weapons exports can be deployed, but the rules were clear. Trump has turned every form of vulnerability into a means of extortion.

He has shown that he will not hesitate to cut rough with military kit to get his way – in Ukraine’s case to force capitulation on Kremlin terms – or “dividing up certain assets” as he put it.

Those terms will probably be close to the Istanbul Protocol: neutrality, a skeleton military like Germany in the 1920s, Russian control over four annexed (but unconquered) oblasts, cultural re-Russification of Ukraine, plus a Vidkun Quisling-like figure to replace Volodymyr Zelensky.

Europe faces serious dangers trying to extricate itself from US dependency.

“If European politicians provoke Trump, we could get into an even more precarious position, setting off a vicious cycle,” said one expert from a NATO state helping the Ukrainian military. But it cannot go on as before either.

“The US has complete lockdown and ownership of our security architecture. Long-range fires and potentially the Patriot missiles and some intelligence systems could stop working if somebody in Florida or Washington presses ‘no’ on a computer. You couldn’t keep the show on the road,” he said.

The Stockholm Institute says the US cornered 43 per cent of global weapons exports over the last five years. This cannot last. Japan, India, Latin America, and the Middle East will all be wary of locking into complex defence systems that could be used as leverage by the White House at any time and for any purpose.

It is no protection if suppliers are private companies: Trump compels corporate leaders to kiss the ring and execute his agenda. He is proactively imposing his ideology on capitalist America. Even the Washington Post has bowed to pressure, refusing to publish views that flout MAGA nostrums.

Two of the irresistible selling points of US arms exporters have long been that a) the dependency would not be abused and b) countries were implicitly coming under the US security umbrella by aligning their fortunes with America.

Neither has currency in Trump’s Hobbesian world.

Telegraph, London

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