As Trump slump hits investors, why does big business still love him?

The narrative around Donald Trump’s return to office was that no matter whether you loathed or loved him, he was meant to be good for Wall Street.

It’s early days, but you don’t hear Trump talking about the sharemarket any more as proof of his successful management of the US economy.

Instead, we’re seeing the Trump slump as he continues to rattle the economy.

The sharemarket is getting increasingly skittish around Donald Trump’s policies.Credit: Bloomberg

A recent graph of the US sharemarket movements reads more like an electrocardiogram (ECG) of someone experiencing massive heart palpitations.

Wall Street’s S&P500 index has been experiencing gyrations in response to the almost daily onslaught of wild and previously unthinkable policy decisions.

Overall, this benchmark is down more than 3 per cent since Trump’s inauguration and has lost almost 5 per cent over the past two weeks. The Australian market has followed its lead and its volatility.

You don’t hear Trump talking about the sharemarket much any more as proof of his successful management of the US economy.

Over the past four trading days alone, investors have reacted negatively to the unprecedented attack on Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky and his eviction from the White House, followed now by the pausing of US military aid to the war-torn country, plus the imposition of tariffs on Canada and Mexico that only a few weeks ago appeared to have been avoided.

Against this volatile and uncertain backdrop, it was curious to hear US captains of industry appear to take Trump and his rapid-fire and extreme policy pronouncements in their stride.

One of the biggest money managers in the US, Stephen Schwarzman – the chairman, CEO and co-founder of the $US1 trillion ($1.6 trillion) asset management giant Blackstone – displayed no sense of fear when he spoke at The Australian Financial Review’s business summit on Tuesday.

On the contrary, he sees the US economy in a Goldilocks position with zero risk of a near-term recession.

The billionaire puts the spooked market reaction down to the inevitable effect of the massive change and upheaval being unleashed by Trump.

Not even Trump’s reset of the tectonic plates of world trade appears to be fazing Schwarzman, even though he professes ignorance on where Trump’s trade policies will land.

There was a similar sense from other speakers at the event. Goldman Sachs chairman David Solomon stated that while observers around the world may view Trump’s decisions and policies as erratic, “I think he has a purposeful direction that he’s pursuing, and we should take him at his word that he’s going to pursue that direction”.

Like Schwarzman, he doesn’t seem unduly concerned by Trump.

Even AustralianSuper chief executive Paul Schroder, who just returned from a superannuation summit in the US, says the Trump administration has far greater clarity on its directions than it appears from abroad.

“From here, it looks like the administration has no plan, but I came away with the realisation that they have a very clear plan,” he told the AFR summit.

Solomon doesn’t think there is zero chance of recession, describing it instead as small, but argued that markets are a signal rather than a reflection of the economy.

And there is one issue that appears to have absolutely captivated business leaders about Trump – they love the government’s massive efficiency drive. For big business, there is no DOG in DOGE.

In some ways Trump’s move to slash costs out of the government plays to the business community’s fear of excessive government debt.

Of course, the breaking of regulatory shackles and cutting red tape works well for many businesses, particularly for those in industries such as finance and banking.

Schwarzman and Solomon also sounded energised and excited about the productivity turbocharging prospects that the ongoing implementation of AI will have for the global economy.

They aren’t suggesting that the revolution in artificial intelligence doesn’t come with risks, but that its productivity rewards are more profound.

That said, markets don’t seem to share this overall level of optimism. As always, they respond poorly to uncertainty – and Trump brings endless amounts of that.

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