Nine-months out, new polling tips massive NT election upset

A leading national pollster is tipping a massive upset at next year’s Territory election. Read what he’s predicting.

The Territory Labor government is less than half as popular as its Country Liberal Party opponents according to new polling conducted nine months out from the next NT election.

Melbourne-based RedBridge surveyed more than 600 Territorians in Darwin, Alice Springs and some rural areas between November 16-18 and found the CLP opposition was more than twice as popular as the Labor government.

Asked how they would vote if a Northern Territory general election were held today, 40.6 per cent said the Country Liberal Party, 19.7 per cent said Labor, 14 per cent said an independent, 13.1 per cent said NT Greens, 9.4 per cent would vote for the Shooters and Fishers Party and 2.4 per cent for the Animal Justice Party.

RedBridge polling November 2023

Alarmingly for Natasha Fyles’ government, the poll showed just 11 per cent of voters aged 18-39 would vote Labor, compared with 40 per cent CLP and 16 per cent NT Greens and Shooters and Fishers Party.

Voters aged 60-plus are more likely to vote for one of the traditional parties with 44 per cent supporting the CLP, 27 per cent supporting Labor, 12 per cent backing the Greens and 11 per cent likely to support an independent candidate.

CLP leader Lia Finocchiaro during her 2022/23 budget. Picture: (A)manda Parkinson

Federally, the CLP leads Labor 40.4 per cent to 22.2 per cent, 18-months out from the next federal election.

There’s about a 5.6 per cent margin of error factored into the poll.

Pollster Kos Samaras, whose RedBridge group recently accurately polled the Voice referendum and Victorian state election, said while there was a narrow victory pathway, the government was “heading for a hiding”.

He estimated on a two-party preferred basis, the Opposition would be well in excess of 60 per cent.

Chief Minister Natasha Fyles. Picture: (A)manda Parkinson

“There is room for the government to turn around but they’re running out of tarmac,” Mr Samaras said.

“There’s a lot of electoral volatility in the Territory and brand loyalty doesn’t exist anymore.

“There’s no just CLP voters or Labor voters, that’s dead in the water.”

Mr Samaras predicted the bush results would reflect those in the city and said a key issue was the financial stress households were experiencing through cost of living and mortgage increases.

“Half the people in the NT with mortgages are suffering negative cash flow,” he said “Incomes are not keeping up with repayments, food and bills and so on, eating into savings, using credit cards and they’re having to cut things in a spectacular way and this is a manifestation of what’s happening on the ground.

“People think the NT government isn’t focusing on the right game.

Soaring crime levels contribute to an overall sense of voter frustration.

“What that does is compound the stress,” Mr Samaras said.

“It’s not a thing on its own but it’s definitely something that just makes things worse. Another thing to worry about.”

In response to the poll results, Chief Minister Natasha Fyles said her government was completely focused on creating jobs, tacjling cost of living pressures and making the Territory safe.

“Those are our priorities because those are Territorians priorities,” she said.

“While inflation is a national issue we have stepped in to make sure that the power price increases the rest of the country are being hit with haven’t happened here.

“You’ll never see CLP-style increases to power bills under Territory Labor.”

Next year’s NT election is scheduled for August 24.

Mr Samaras said he would conduct another poll in May and then closer to polling day.