Australia’s average summertime temperatures set to soar

A frightening picture of Australia’s future has emerged with new analysis showing average summer temperatures soaring by as much as 2C.

New analysis has painted a frightening future for Australians if the world does not get emissions down before 2050 with average summer temperatures soaring by as much as 2C in about 30 years.

The research provided to news.com.au exclusively by the Monash Climate Change Communication Research Hub has allowed Australians to see how conditions could change in almost every local government area (LGA) across the country by 2041-2060, compared to average simulated temperatures in 1986-2005.

The research is part of news.com.au’s partnership with the Monash Climate Change Communication Research Hub for the Time Is Now series, looking at the impacts of climate change across Australia by 2050.

If no action is taken on emissions reduction until after 2050 and the world waits until 2100 to reach net zero, then summer temperatures are predicted to rise by an average of between 0.9C and 2.2C across all LGAs analysed. An interactive map representing the data provides an alarming visual, with Australians able to see how much temperatures could increase in their area.

The data is based on climate simulations from the NSW and ACT Regional Climate Modelling project, also known as NARCliM1.5, led by the NSW Government. It includes forecasts for a medium emissions scenario called RCP4.5, which the United Nations’ Intergovermental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) developed to understand how our future would look if a certain volume of greenhouse gases was emitted.

Even worse, if the world takes a higher emissions pathway (RCP8.5) with no action to reduce emissions, then average summer temperatures could rise by 1.4C – 2.7C by about 2050, with increases in most capital cities of about 2C. Sydney would be the most impacted area with an average 2.2C rise.

However, policies are already beginning to move us away from this scenario indicating it could be avoided.

Dropping to a medium emissions scenario would see temperature increases fall to between 1.3C and 1.9C.

Even under this pathway, Greater Perth would still see an average temperature rise of almost 2C (1.9C), followed by Adelaide (1.7C), Melbourne (1.5C), Sydney (1.4C), Brisbane (1.4C), Hobart (1.3C) and Darwin (1.3C).

This would see temperatures rise to an average of 31.8C in Perth during summer, 34.7C in Darwin and 30.9C in Brisbane.

Climate researcher and data scientist James Goldie, who compiled the Monash data, said 2050 was in many ways an inflection point.

“Between 2040 and 2060, some of the worst impacts of doing nothing will start kicking in and we’ll start to see a different future emerging,” he said.

“This is when we start to see quite a large difference in doing nothing, and taking action.”

Dr Goldie said a lot of work was needed in the next couple of decades to ensure the world got to net zero by 2050, which would give it a chance to keep temperatures around 1.5C and put it on a low emissions pathway.

“Unlike my homework in the past, we can’t leave it to the last minute, it needs to be done early.”

Hover over the map to find your LGA or search in the table below

Average temperatures to rise by 2.2C

As the map shows, the impacts of global warming increase even further outside of the capitals.

Areas to the north east of Perth are expected to see the highest rises in Australia, with summer temperatures under a medium emissions scenario expected to increase by an average of 2.2C in the LGAs of Cue, Yalgoo, Morawa, Murchison, Perenjori and Greater Geraldton.

South Australia’s Yorke and Mid North region is also expected to experience average temperature increases of 2C including in Northern Areas (north of Adelaide), Orrorroo/Carrieton and Peterborough LGAs.

The Bulloo shire in south west Queensland could also see an increase of 2C.

Australian National University Professor Mark Howden said a 2017 study published in Nature Climate Change had predicted almost every day could become a heat stress day in northern Australia. Heat stress days occur when the combination of temperature and humidity is more likely to cause heat-related deaths.

“Clearly that’s going to have an impact on liveability,” he said.

“That doesn’t mean it’s not liveable because people are already living in areas of high heat stress but it would impact the desirability of northern Australia as a location.”

In NSW, the highest temperature rise would be in the western town of Bourke, which could see a 1.9C increase.

Temperatures in Bourke could rise by 1.9C by about 2050.

In the Northern Territory, LGAs in the south of the state, MacDonnell and Central Desert, are set to experience average temperature rises of 1.9C, with Alice Springs on 1.8C.

Victoria’s Pyrenees, in the state’s west, and Towong, on the Murray River in the north east, would see a rise of 1.8C, while Tasmania’s Flinders, which includes Flinders Island, could see a 1.7C rise.

The Australian Capital Territory, which is not broken up into LGAs and is referred to as “unincorporated ACT” in the data, would see an increase of 1.7C. There is no separate figure for Canberra.

We must act to keep warming down

Scientists have urged authorities to follow a lower emissions path that would keep average global temperatures increases to around 1.5C but this would require a net zero by 2050 target at a minimum.

The latest IPCC report, released in August, confirmed Australia had already warmed by 1.4C — much higher than the global average of 1.1C.

This has already led to more hot extremes and less rainfall during winter in southern Australia, as well as many other impacts. It also locks in certain irreversible changes to sea level rise, ocean warming and the melting of glaciers.

United Nations secretary-general Antonio Guterres said the internationally agreed threshold of 1.5C was “perilously close”.

“We are at imminent risk of hitting 1.5 degrees in the near term,” he said.

“The only way to prevent exceeding this threshold is by urgently stepping up our efforts, and pursuing the most ambitious path. We must act decisively now to keep 1.5 alive.”

Prof Howden, who worked on the IPCC report, said there was no physical or biological reason the world could not avoid warming of more than 1.5C.

“It’s entirely up to how quickly we can reduce greenhouse gas emissions globally,” he said.

Prof Howden said it was important not just to have a long term goal, such as committing to net zero by 2050, but also to have short term goals consistent with keeping emissions within a carbon budget that would keep temperatures down.

“(The most recent report) shows that differences in emissions trajectory start being felt very quickly and in particular, they play out in a very significant way further out in time, if you look at the end of the century,” he said.

How temperatures in Australia have already changed. Source: Bureau of Meterology

Australia has not yet committed to a net zero by 2050 target or a more ambitious 2030 target. It’s still unclear whether Prime Minister Scott Morrison will attend the Glasgow Climate Change Conference, starting on October 31, where countries are expected to confirm their commitments.

It comes as the Business Council of Australia did an abrupt about-face last week, announcing its support of a net zero target and a more ambitious 2030 emissions reduction target of between 46 to 50 per cent below 2005 levels.

It released a blueprint for net zero that it says would position Australia to reap an economic dividend of $890 billion and 195,000 jobs over the next 50 years.

“Preparing for the future means Australia must be more ambitious in the short term, and we can be because we’re already on track to meet our interim targets,” Business Council chief executive Jennifer Westacott said.

The BCA noted that Australia’s biggest trading partners were already making the transition as were global capital markets and local businesses. It said acting now could leave average Australians $5000 better off per year, and those in the regions would gain the biggest economic benefit.

Meanwhile Reserve Bank analysis released last week revealed climate change could lead to a fall in house prices and increased insurance costs.

As news.com.au recently reported, climate change impacts are not being made clear to many homeowners.

Originally published as Australia’s average summertime temperatures set to soar