What Australia’s win over Japan means for direct World Cup qualification, how Saudi Arabia can leapfrog the Socceroos
The Socceroos 1-0 win over Japan in Perth took us one step closer to direct World Cup qualification, but it isn’t guaranteed. What would it take for Saudi Arabia to leapfrog the Aussies? We take a look at the state of play.
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Saudi Arabia must score at least five goals against Australia in Jeddah next week to have any hope of denying the Socceroos guaranteed 2026 FIFA World Cup qualification.
The Socceroos have all but sealed a spot in next year’s World Cup in the United States, Mexico and Canada after beating Japan 1-0 in Perth on Thursday night.
However, the Saudis still have a mathematical chance to grab the second automatic qualifying berth in Group C of the AFC’s third-round of qualifiers at Australia’s expense following their 2-0 win over Bahrain on Friday morning (AEST).
With the top two from each of the AFC’s three third-round qualifying groups to be guaranteed a World Cup spot, Japan has already secured qualification from Group C, with the Samurai Blue – who have 20 points from nine matches - unable to be displaced from first place.
The Socceroos are in second spot in Group C with 16 points from nine games and with a goal difference of plus eight, having scored 14 goals and conceded six.
Saudi Arabia remains within striking distance of Australia with 13 points, but has a goal difference of zero, having scored eight goals and conceded eight in its nine games.
Should the Saudis beat the Socceroos in Jeddah on Wednesday morning (AEST) they will draw level on points with Australia in the battle for second spot.
However, the scoreline in the match would then determine which of the two nations would then join Japan as automatic Group C qualifiers.
If the Saudis prevent the Socceroos from scoring and find the back of the net at least five times they would qualify ahead of Australia thanks to a superior goal difference.
However, if the Socceroos can score, Saudi Arabia will need to score at least six goals to stop Australia qualifying.
Meanwhile, Socceroos coach Tony Popovic admitted to thinking potential World Cup qualifying hero Riley McGree was struggling just before his moment of magic on Thursday night.
The Middlesbrough midfielder entered the match at the start of the second half, and having been plagued with injury over the past two seasons, there were fears his entry into the game was a bit premature.
However, he provided the 90th-minutes assist that Aziz Behich scored from to secure the Socceroos their 1-0 win.
Popovic said McGree did a wonderful job.
“Riley came on. He’s had very limited game time,” Popovic said.
“In all honesty, I was actually worried about him.
“With about 15 to go, I thought he was really looking fatigued, but then Riley shows that bit of quality that he has, which we really want to harness and getting fully fit that he can show that over a long period of time.
“Because, yeah, he’s done that in the 90th minute. It’s probably 20 to 30 minutes too long for him tonight, but he did a wonderful job.”
Popovic also introduced Patrick Yazbek into the midfield at the start of the second-half in a move the coach was extremely happy about.
The Socceroos managed only one shot in the first half, but added five more in the final 45 minutes.
Yazbek’s class made a difference, completing all 14 of his passes with 100 per cent accuracy.
Popovic said Yazbek provided the spark that his side needed.
“You’re always hoping for the players that come on to have an impact,” he said.
“We felt at half-time we needed to change. We needed to get a little bit better in retaining the ball, but also better physicality in midfield.
“And I thought Patrick did a very good job. He was just quick to the challenge, quick to the ball, move the ball quickly.”
The win was the Socceroos first over Japan since 2009 in a 2010 World Cup qualifier at the MCG. They lost six and drew four games against the Samurai Blue in the subsequent 10 matches between the teams since then,
Behich’s goal was the first since 2014 against the Samurai Blue in open play since 2014.
Thursday’s loss was Japan’s first since Iran beat them 2-1 in February 2024. It broke a 12-game streak without a loss.
Popovic said it was a special moment.
“They’re on a wonderful run, and there’s a reason for that, so they are the best, and we want to challenge them to be the best,” he said.
“We shouldn’t shy away from that, and hopefully today we take a big step forward, knowing we can beat Japan.
“They’d be very satisfied. They know they’ve done something that hasn’t been done for quite a while. The part that we keep telling them is there is a lot more growth and we need to get better if we want our expectations to be high ... but tonight’s a special night for Australian football.”
Originally published as What Australia’s win over Japan means for direct World Cup qualification, how Saudi Arabia can leapfrog the Socceroos
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