Raceday focus: Flemington tips, odds, betting analysis for Stakes Day

Herald Sun chief racing writer Leo Schlink expects Stakes Day to be fit for one particular queen, while form analyst Brad Waters settles on a very popular runner.

Herald Sun chief racing writer Leo Schlink expects Stakes Day to be fit for one particular queen, while form analyst Brad Waters runs the rule over the Mackinnon Stakes meeting.

TAB punting guru Nick Quinn also chimes in with his selections.

LEO’S BEST

BEST BET

ARCADIA QUEEN (Race 8, No 9, $3.10)

Massive performance to finish fifth in the Cox Plate after almost falling at the 1100m and also losing a plate in running. Tough race but the one to beat.

NEXT BEST

RIGHT YOU ARE (Race 4, No 5, $3.40)

Flies first-up, loves Flemington and unbeaten after two attempts at 1600m.

BIVOUAC (Race 6, No 3, $3.60)

Excels at Flemington where he has a win and a second at Group 1 level over 1200m. Huge run in The Everest.

PLAQUETTE (Race 9, No 15, $4.80)

Cost herself victory when slowly away at Randwick before charging home to just miss. Market support is significant.

THE TRAINERS

SIMON ZAHRA

ZOUTORI (Race 6, No 4, $11)

“Obviously going well, loves the straight, 1200m. He’s nice and fresh. Can’t fault him.”

ARISTIA (Race 7, No 8, $26)

“Back to Flemington where she’s never run a bad race. Blinkers on. Freshened on the farm since Cranbourne. Gains 6-7 lengths back at Flemington, looks awesome but has to bounce back to form.”

JAMES CUMMINGS

BIVOUAC (Race 6, No 3, $3.60)

“He’s come through The Everest in sparkling shape and that contest is the benchmark for spring sprint form. He looks exceptional and we’re confident he’s tuned up for a peak performance.”

QUADZILLA WITH BRAD WATERS

LEG 1: RACE 6

With the third and last legs of the quaddie being open affairs, it’s best not to go too wide in the earlier Flemington races, which feature less winning chances. Confident BIVOUAC (3) can win the first leg of the quaddie but NATURE STRIP (2) blew away his opposition in this race last year, which also needs to be kept in mind despite the sprinter going winless so far this spring. Happy to play those two alone in the first leg.

1ST LEG: 2, 3

LEG 2: RACE 7

The Matriarch Stakes is the second leg of the Flemington quaddie and there’s plenty of quality engaged. Going with a mix of established class and up and coming mares in this $300,000 race. VANNA GIRL (3) is the top pick after her Empire Rose Stakes run last Saturday TOFFEE TONGUE (2) was outgunned in the Caulfield Cup but her Turnbull Stakes run two starts back shows she must be respected. CHAILLOT (13) has only had five starts but shown plenty of promise and is also a must for Saturday’s quaddie. IN GOOD HEALTH (7) should again go forward and be in it for a long way.

2ND LEG: 2, 3, 7, 13

Arcadia Queen, ridden by William Pike, takes out the Caulfield Stakes last month.

LEG 3: RACE 8

Plenty of chances in the Mackinnon Stakes, which should be a great betting race for punters this year. FIFTY STARS (2) looks set to threaten in this race after a pleasing effort in the Cantala while MUGATOO (5) goes in after his game effort in the Cox Plate. SKYWARD (6) will be fitter for his Geelong Cup run while DALASAN (7) is worth throwing on his Turnbull Stakes run. MELODY BELLE (8) is back here after two NZ wins while ARCADIA QUEEN (9) is always a threat.

3RD LEG: 2, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9

LEG 4: RACE 9

Extremely difficult race to finish the Flemington quaddie on Saturday. Going wide again with another six runners, including the top picks ROCK PROPHET (18) and THE GAUCH (17), who are both emergencies and need scratchings to get into the field. If they miss out, EXPRESS PASS (3) and CAN’T BE DONE (5) are good backups along with the speedy METEORITE (11) and the Godolphin galloper PLAQUETTE (15). But the last is a real raffle.

4TH LEG: 3, 5, 11, 15, 17, 18

FIRST LEG 2, 3

SECOND LEG 2, 3, 7, 13

THIRD LEG 2, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9

FOURTH LEG 3, 5, 11, 15, 17, 18

Cost $100 for 34.7%

SKINNY QUADDIE

The skinny quaddie is almost impossible this week at Flemington with the last two legs featuring many winning chances. Therefore we’ll have to be brave and take BIVOUAC (3) one-out in the first leg. From there it gets harder but happy to play TOFFEE TONGUE (2), VANNA GIRL (3) and CHAILLOT (13) in the second leg. Scraping the Mackinnon Stakes back to FIFTY STARS (2) and ARCADIA QUEEN (9) and the last leg will be untouched because of its difficulty.

FIRST LEG: 3

SECOND LEG: 2, 3, 13

THIRD LEG: 2, 9

FOURTH LEG: 3, 5, 11, 15, 17, 18

Cost $100 for 277%

BRAD WATERS’ FOUR-PLAY $50 BETTING STRATEGY

FLEMINGTON

RACE 2 FLEMINGTON

SPRINGTIME STAKES (1400M)

$50 WIN TOMMY GOLD (2) at $2.80

Tommy Gold heads to Melbourne after a solid first-up outing in the Brian Crowley Stakes at Randwick last month. The colt did his best work late behind the speedy The Bopper fresh, indicating the step up to 1400m will suit him at Flemington. Trainer John O’Shea had a winning double on Oaks Day and Tommy Gold could add to his haul.

RACE 3 FLEMINGTON

NETWORK 10 CHATHAM STAKES (1400M)

$25 EACH-WAY REYKJAVIK (1) at $9/$2.50

Reykjavik wasn’t disgraced in Group 1 company in the Toorak Handicap at Caulfield at his last start but didn’t get a run in last Saturday’s Group 1 Cantala Stakes over the Flemington 1600m trip. Reykjavik is back to 1400m on Saturday but getting back to Flemington will be a major plus for the Lindsey Smith-trained galloper on Saturday.

RACE 5 FLEMINGTON

QUEEN ELIZABETH STAKES (2600M)

$50 WIN PONDUS (2) at $2.90

Pondus went close to a win at his Australian debut in the Bendigo Cup and will be primed to go one better at Flemington on Saturday. Damien Oliver replaces the suspended Damien Lane on the Joseph O’Brien-trained stayer. Connections will be desperate to win the Queen Elizabeth Stakes, which will qualify Pondus for next year’s Melbourne Cup and the son of Sea The Moon should go close.

RACE 6 FLEMINGTON

DARLEY SPRINT CLASSIC (1200M)

$50 WIN BIVOUAC (3) at $3.70

We’ll be trying to build a bank of profit in the earlier races to have a free shot at Bivouac, who looks a great chance to notch another Group 1 win in the Darley Sprint Classic. Bivouac went well when second in The Everest but he was a dominant winner of the Newmarket Handicap at his last run down the Flemington straight. He’s drawn to get the last crack at the leaders.

BRAD’S BEST BET

BIVOUAC (Race 6, No. 3)

VALUE BET

REYKJAVIK (Race 3, No. 1)

EARLY QUADDIE

1, 2, 4, 8/1, 4, 5, 8/2, 3, 5, 6, 7/1, 2, 3, 5

$100 flexi for 41 percent

BIG6

2, 3, 5, 6, 7/1, 2, 3, 5/2, 3/1, 2, 3, 13/2, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9/3, 5, 11, 17, 18

$100 flexi for 3.47 percent

QUADDIE

Race 6: 2, 3

Race 7: 1, 2, 3, 13

Race 8: 2, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9

Race 9: 3, 5, 11, 17, 18

$100 flexi for 50 per cent

Pondus is a great chance to notch his maiden Australian win at Flemington.

BRAD’S RACE-BY-RACE ANALYSIS

RACE 1: 12.25PM VERY SPECIAL KIDS PIN & WIN TROPHY (2000m)

Cool conditions are predicted for the final day of the Flemington carnival but there’s not much rain around, meaning the track will start as a good (4) and probably improve to a good (3) during the course of the meeting. Big field to start proceedings at Benchmark 80 level. Going to play the Andrew Noblet-trained GHODELEINE (9) each-way at the odds after a solid effort at Geelong last time out. She has a solid 2000m record and should get every chance from barrier four. Saving on the import ALMANIA (1) at his Australian debut. He’ll find this much easier than chasing champion mare Enable, which he did at his last run. VEGAS KNIGHT (5) was tough in his Caulfield win last time out and drops in grade while SOMERSET MAUGHAM (4) impressed in Adelaide last time out.

SUGGESTED BET: Ghodeleine each-way with a saver on Almania.

TAB MARKET MOVER: Almania $8.50 – $3.60

RACE 2: 1PM THE AMANDA ELLIOTT (1400m)

The favourite TOMMY GOLD (4) will be hard to beat based on his excellent first-up effort to finish second in the Brian Crowley Stakes in Sydney last time out. He’s a three-year-old that has taken time to develop but he gets his chance to notch a stakes win on Saturday. PIONEER RIVER (1) led throughout and kept giving at Cranbourne last time out. DEEP SPEED (2) was another that raced on the pace and impressed again at The Valley. SHELBY COBRA (8) could be unbeaten with any luck and was an easy winner at Sale at his second start.

SUGGESTED BET: Tommy Gold to win.

TAB MARKET MOVER: Tommy Gold $3.10 – $2.80

RACE 3: 1.35PM GROUP 3 NETWORK 10 CHATHAM STAKES (1400m)

Thought REYKJAVIK (1) was a sneaky chance in the Cantala last Saturday so thinking he’s a great hope in this Group 3 assignment. He wasn’t disgraced after getting back from a bad barrier in the Toorak Handicap at Caulfield last time out and he loves racing at Flemington. The man of the moment Jye NcNeil goes aboard. MORVADA (8) is racing in great heart and should again be in this for a long way. RIDDLE ME THAT (5) won well at Flemington two starts back and wasn’t suited in the on-pace dominated Crystal Mile at The Valley. MORRISSY (4) is another consistent performer that is worth including.

SUGGESTED BET: Reykjavik each-way.

TAB MARKET MOVER: Bold Star $9 – $6

Sydney trainer John O’Shea will run Tommy Gold at Flemington on Saturday.

RACE 4: 2.15PM NOVA100 TROPHY (1600m)

Difficult race at the unusual Benchmark 90 level but MR MONEY BAGS (6) might be ready to fire back on his favourite track at Flemington. He struggled at Caulfield second-up but improved sharply when running on well at Geelong. He’s a three-time winner at Flemington and the firmer the better for him. RIGHT YOU ARE (5) raced in great form as a three-year-old during the winter and should measure up to this first-up. WINNING PARTNER (2) is going well, claiming the Listed Balaklava and Murray Bridge Cups at his last two runs. AL PASSEM (3) is up in trip after contesting a 1200m race at The Valley last time out and can improve.

SUGGESTED BET: Mr Money Bags each-way.

TAB MARKET MOVER: Right You Are $4.60 – $3.80

RACE 5: 2.45PM GROUP 3 QUEEN ELIZABETH STAKES (2500m)

Ultra-competitive edition of the Queen Elizabeth Stakes with plenty of winning chances. PONDUS (2) created an excellent impression when an unlucky second in the Bendigo at his Australian debut and he can go one better on Saturday. LE DON DE VIE (1) was terrific when only nabbed late after leading nearly all the way in the Geelong Cup and will strip fitter. HAKY (5) improved significantly when not far away in the Bendigo Cup and is a winner over this track and trip. SHARED AMBITION (3) was solid in the Moonee Valley Gold Cup and will again be thereabouts here.

SUGGESTED BET: Pondus to win.

TAB MARKET MOVER: Pondus $3.40 – $3.20

RACE 6: 3PM GROUP 1 DARLEY SPRINT CLASSIC (1200m)

With the southerly wind likely to prevail, I’m looking for horses that will get cover down the straight on Saturday. BIVOUAC (3) perfectly fits the bill from his draw in the middle of the field. Glen Boss knows Bivouac well having won the Newmarket Handicap down the straight on the stallion in the autumn and riding the Godolphin sprinter into second in The Everest. NATURE STRIP (2) will be facing the breeze but he easily won this race last year after an unplaced run in The Everest so wary of him. TOFANE (8) is due for a bit of luck down the straight after a luckless run in the Gilgai Stakes two runs back. She’ll be better suited back at home. SANTA ANA LANE (1) will be fitter than his last two runs and might get the last crack at them here.

SUGGESTED BET: Bivouac to win.

TAB MARKET MOVER: Libertini $7.50 – $7

RACE 7: 4.15PM GROUP 2 MATRIARCH STAKES (2000m)

Solid edition of the Matriarch Stakes with a smart field engaged. Thought VANNA GIRL (3) was worth an each-way play after running on well at the end of last Saturday’s Empire Rose Stakes. She shaped as though the 2000m would suit at this stage. CHAILLOT (13) is another that is backing up after an excellent effort in the Empire Rose Stakes and must be respected. Forget TOFFEE TONGUE (2) ran in the Caulfield Cup and she’s a great chance if she repeats her Turnbull Stakes performance. PRINCESS JENNI (1) drops back from the 2400m of her fighting Bendigo Cup win but is a classy mare than should handle it.

SUGGESTED BET: Vanna Girl each-way.

TAB MARKET MOVER: Chaillot $5 – $4.20

Jockey John Allen and Fifty Stars will be out to repeat their Australian Cup triumph.

RACE 8: 5PM GROUP 1 SEPPELT MACKINNON STAKES (2000m)

Good, even Mackinnon Stakes field, which could provide a bit of value the punters good enough to find the winner. Looking to FIFTY STARS (2) as the fresh horse on the scene after only three runs this time in. He was excellent making ground in last Saturday’s Cantala and will be fitter again. The stable has followed the same pattern as in the autumn, running Fifty Stars over 1600m a week before a 2000m run. The strategy won him the Australian Cup. SKYWARD (6) wasn’t far away on the Geelong Cup and his overseas form is good enough. MUGATOO (5) was brave when enduring a tough run before running fourth in the Cox Plate and should go well again. ARCADIA QUEEN (9) will enjoy getting back onto firmer footing after her competitive Cox Plate effort.

SUGGESTED BET: FIFTY STARS each-way.

TAB MARKET MOVER: Arcadia Queen $3.70 – $3.20

RACE 9: 5.45PM SEPPELT DRUMBORG GRAND HANDICAP (1100m)

They’ve set us an extremely tough task in the last race of the Flemington carnival with a case to be made for most of the runners! Looking for a bit of each-way value with ROCK PROPHET (18) from the outside barrier. Rock Prophet was stiff when held up at Bendigo last time but wasn’t disgraced at Group 2 level down the straight two runs back. Playing him each-way. THE GAUCH (17) went down narrowly to the smart Ocular at Bendigo and should run well. CAN’T BE DONE (5) is lightly-raced but should run well fresh and EXPRESS PASS (3) is unbeaten over 1100m and has gone well at both straight runs.

SUGGESTED BET: Rock Prophet each-way.

TAB MARKET MOVER: Express Pass $7 – $4.40

QUINNY’S MAILBAG: FLASH HOME WITH BIVOUAC

TAB tipping expert Nick Quinn has cast his eyes over the final day of the Melbourne Cup Carnival at Flemington on Saturday and picked the best plays of the day for punters.

BEST BET

PONDUS (Flemington Saturday, Race 5, No. 2)

VALUE BET

REYKJAVIK (Flemington Saturday, Race 3, No. 1)

LAY OF THE WEEK

NATURE STRIP (Flemington Saturday, Race 6, No. 2)

Pondus will be hard to beat in the Queen Elizabeth Stakes. Picture: Getty Images

RACE 7: DARLEY SPRINT CLASSIC

Bivouac looks well placed to return to the winners’ list, he flashed home for second in The Everest last start. He loves the Flemington straight having had two starts at the track, the first time he was runner-up in the Coolmore behind Exceedance and the other was a stunning win in the Group 1 Newmarket in what has proved an excellent form reference, with Loving Gaby second and Gytrash third. The $3.70 on offer for Bivouac looks more than acceptable and I anticipate that he will firm and win.

Nature Strip has been a nightmare again this campaign for punters having been beaten at all three starts, including at $1.45 and $2.20 before being the first horse beaten in The Everest. Nature Strip won this race last year but is not racing well enough to win and looks way too short at $4.

SUGGESTED BET: BIVOUAC the win.

Bivouac won the Newmarket down the Flemington straight in March. Picture: Getty Images

RACE 8: MACKINNON STAKES

A mouth-watering edition with a clash between star mares Melody Belle and Arcadia Queen. Melody Belle had a disappointing two-start campaign in Sydney, running last in the Missile Stakes and 11th in the Winx Stakes. Any fears that she had lost her ability were quickly put to bed as she returned to Hastings with a gutsy win in the Winds Park Plate over 1600m before stepping up to 2000m and destroying her rivals with an effortless victory in the Livamol Classic. She has an excellent record over 2000m, having won three of her five starts, and any rain is a big tick. She has won 11 of her 17 starts on soft ground.

Arcadia Queen returned to her brilliant best two starts ago when going past Russian Camelot like he was standing still in the Caulfield Stakes. She was equally as impressive in the Cox Plate, running fifth when conditions didn’t suit. They should fight out the finish. Arcadia Queen has been backed from $3.70 into $3.10 and heads the market from Mugatoo $4.20 and Melody Belle $5. Mugatoo has been a model of consistency since coming to Australia. He comes into the race after finishing fourth in the Cox Plate and should be in the finish.

SUGGESTED BET: ARCADIA QUEEN the win.

Originally published as Raceday focus: Flemington tips, odds, betting analysis for Stakes Day