The run home: Round 27 of the NRL, where does your club finish?

The last round of the NRL season comes down to a shootout for eighth spot, a fight for home finals and the all-important ‘spoon bowl’. Strap in for THE RUN HOME.

NEWCASTLE, AUSTRALIA - SEPTEMBER 01: Kalyn Ponga of the Knights kicks the ball during the round 26 NRL match between Newcastle Knights and Gold Coast Titans at McDonald Jones Stadium, on September 01, 2024, in Newcastle, Australia. (Photo by Scott Gardiner/Getty Images)

What a masterstroke of scheduling.

The last round of the NRL season comes down to a shootout for eighth spot, a fight for home finals and the all important ‘spoon bowl’.

Hollywood could not have scripted it better.

The Knights and Dolphins will play off for a spot in the finals in the last game of the round. while the Roosters have been smashed with a landslide of injuries and suspensions all at the wrong time.

The Panthers are clinging onto second spot on the ladder but have a fight on their hands with teams in pursuit.

With all things considered, everything is at stake this weekend.

We’ve crunched the numbers and found the highest and lowest possible finish for each team as well as the advantages and hurdles to either get them there or send them skidding at the finish line.

MELBOURNE STORM

Current position: 1st (42 points, 18 wins, 5 losses, 3 byes, +205 points differential)

Prediction: 1st (44pts, 19 wins, 5 losses)

Run home: Broncos (w)

Best finish: 1st

Worst finish: 1st

Verdict: Coach Craig Bellamy is set to name a close to full strength outfit against the Broncos after resting 11 players for last weekend’s clash in Townsville. Star fullback Ryan Papenhuyzen is in doubt with bone bruising but should be fit for week one of the finals, where the Storm will likely host either the Roosters or Cronulla.

Cameron Munster’s Storm won’t move on the table, win or lose. Picture: Ian Hitchcock/Getty Images

PENRITH PANTHERS

Current position: 2nd (38 points, 16 wins, 7 losses 3 byes, +180pd)

Prediction: 2nd (40pts, 17 wins, 7 losses)

Run home: Titans (w)

Best finish: 2nd

Worst finish: 4th

Verdict: The Panthers have made it battered and bruised to the finish line without skipper Nathan Cleary for most of the season, but he’s crucial to a premiership win for the three-time champions. Coach Ivan Cleary has indicated he won’t be mass resting players against the Titans while still on the hunt for a home qualifying final, saying he wants to hit next week in form after putting together a good performance. A win against the Titans will lock in a top two spot, but a loss will leave them at mercy of the Roosters, who would need to beat the Rabbitohs.

SYDNEY ROOSTERS

Current position: 3rd (36 points, 15 wins, 8 losses, 3 byes, +267pd)

Prediction: 3rd (38pts, 16 wins, 8 losses)

Run home: Rabbitohs (w)

Best Finish: 2nd

Worst Finish: 4th

Verdict: Even with season-ending injuries to Sam Walker (ACL) and Brandon Smith (ACL and MCL) and Victor Radley (shoulder) fighting to get back on the park this year, the Roosters still have enough class to defeat arch rival South Sydney. A top two finish, which will secure a home final at Allianz Stadium, is still possible if Penrith lose to the Titans. Trent Robinson’s men could slip to fourth if the Rabbitohs can upset the injury-ravaged side and Sharks beat Manly. That would leave the Roosters with a huge challenge against the Storm at AAMI Park. Already without Jared Waerea-Hargreaves, who is out suspended, the forward pack suffered a double blow against the Raiders with Radley and Nat Butcher (concussion) unavailable for the Rabbitohs clash. Sitili Tupouniua is an option in the back row and Siua Wong is in line to earn a call-up from NSW Cup. So is Sandon Smith, who can cover at hooker and in the halves. Joseph-Aukuso Suaalii will return from a neck injury.

The Sharks will have to fight hard to keep their top eight spot. Picture: Cameron Spencer/Getty Images

CRONULLA SHARKS

Current position: 4th (36 points, 15 wins, 8 losses, 3 byes, +204pd)

Prediction: 4th (36pts, 15 wins, 9 losses)

Run home: Sea Eagles (l)

Best Finish: 2nd

Worst Finish: 5th

Verdict: A loss against the Warriors at home cost the Sharks a top two spot, but there’s still an outside chance they can land a home final. For that to happen they would need to beat Manly at Brookvale and have both Penrith and the Roosters lose to finish second. However, if they both win, the Sharks’ result is irrelevant to the finals makeup and they’ll face Melbourne in week one. Jesse Ramien (suspension), Ronaldo Mulitalo (knee) and Siosifa Talakai (calf) are all expected to be available this week. Nicho Hynes made his return last week just in time for a push into September where they will be desperate to win at least one game. They haven’t won a finals match since 2018.

CANTERBURY BULLDOGS

Current position: 5th (34 points, 14 wins, 9 losses, 3 byes, +134pd)

Prediction: 5th (36pts, 15 wins, 9 losses)

Run home: Cowboys (w)

Best finish: 4th

Worst finish: 7th

Verdict: A win against the Cowboys will secure a home final from the winner of the Dolphins and Knights clash in week one. The Bulldogs will have to get the job done without Bronson Xerri (suspension), Matt Burton (concussion) and potentially flyer Josh Addo-Carr (ankle). A home final at Accor Stadium is still possible but will rely on Cronulla toppling Manly at 4 Pines Park. The Bulldogs could slip as low as seventh if they can’t overcome the Cowboys and Manly win on Sunday.

The Cowboys could secure a home final if they beat the Bulldogs. Picture: Ian Hitchcock/Getty Images

NORTH QUEENSLAND COWBOYS

Current position: 6th (34pts, 14 wins, 9 losses, 3 byes, +51pd)

Prediction: 7th (34pts, 14 wins, 10 losses)

Run home: Bulldogs (l)

Best finish: 5th

Worst finish: 7th

Verdict: An ugly win over Melbourne assured them a finals spot, but it highlighted some scrappy defence that needs sorting out across the next week or two. The only issue now is where they finish. They can land as high as fifth with a win over the Bulldogs on Saturday, which would have them face either Newcastle or the Dolphins in week one in Townsville. They beat the Knights by a field goal in round two, but have played the Dolphins twice this season for a win and a loss each.

MANLY SEA EAGLES

Current position: 7th (33 points, 13 wins, 9 losses, 1 draw, 3 byes, +133pd)

Prediction: 6th (35pts, 14 wins, 10 losses, 1 draw)

Run home: Sharks (w)

Best finish: 5th

Worst finish: 7th

Verdict: Manly will play at 4 Pines Park in the second elimination final to host the loser from the Bulldogs and Cowboys clash, if they take down Cronulla on Sunday afternoon at Brookvale Oval in front of what will be a sellout home crowd. Lehi Hopoate and Tolu Koula are in the running to replace superstar fullback Tom Trbojevic (AC injury) in the No.1 jumper. Anthony Seibold insists Trbojevic will be back in time for the finals but flyer Jason Saab (ankle) is facing season ending surgery. The best case scenario for Saab is a return in time for week two of the finals.

Wayne Bennett is on the cusp of finals with the Dolphins. Picture: NRL Photos

DOLPHINS

Current position: 8th (28 points, 11 wins, 12 losses, 3 byes, +7pd)

Prediction: 9th (28pts, 11 wins, 13 losses)

Run home: Knights (l)

Best finish: 8th

Worst finish: Miss the top eight, 9th

Verdict: Wayne Bennett loves nothing more than beating his former teams, but ending the Knights’ finals hopes would be the cherry on top for the master coach. The Dolphins are on a high after thumping Brisbane over the weekend, and simply need to win for a maiden finals berth. Jesse Bromwich is expected to be available.

NEWCASTLE KNIGHTS

Current position: 9th (28 points, 11 wins, 12 losses, 3 byes, -48pd)

Prediction: 8th (30pts, 12 wins, 12 losses)

Run home: Dolphins (w)

Best finish: 8th

Worst finish: Miss the top eight, 9th

Verdict: It’s do or die for the Knights. A win will sew-up the final spot in the top eight and book a week one finals date with either the Bulldogs or the Cowboys. Adam O’Brien will receive a boost in the forward pack this week with Tyson Frizell (concussion) to retain and prop Jacob Saifiti (calf) likely to be available for selection.

Newcastle will pack out the stadium for the final round. Picture: NRL Photos

 ST GEORGE ILLAWARRA DRAGONS

Current position: 10th (28 points, 11 wins, 12 losses, 3 byes, -124pd)

Prediction: 11th (28pts, 11 wins, 13 losses)

Run home: Raiders (l)

Best finish: 8th

Worst finish: Miss the top eight, 12th

Verdict: The Dragons held destiny in their hands but threw it away in a shock loss to Parramatta over the weekend, ending any realistic chance they will make finals this season. For the big dreamers, there’s the smallest of chances they can make it. They would need to beat the Raiders at Kogarah and have the Knights and Dolphins’ game finish with a draw after 90 minutes on Sunday afternoon. Stranger things have happened.

CANBERRA RAIDERS

Current position: 12th (28 points, 11 wins, 12 losses, 3 byes, -129pd)

Prediction: 10th (30pts, 12 wins, 13 losses)

Run home: Dragons (w)

Best finish: 8th

Worst finish: Miss the top eight, 12th

Verdict: Canberra kept their faint mathematical chances alive with a win against the Roosters on the weekend. The only way the Raiders can sneak into the top eight is if they defeat the Dragons and if the clash between the Dolphins and Knights ends in a draw. English Super League bound stalwarts Jordan Rapana (jaw) and Elliott Whitehead (suspension) won’t be available for the trip to Netstrata Jubilee Oval on Saturday.

They would need a miracle but the Raiders are still in the hunt. Picture: Cameron Spencer/Getty Images

BRISBANE BRONCOS

Current position: 12th (26 points, 10 wins, 13 losses, 3 byes, -32dp)

Prediction: 12th (26pts, 10 wins, 14 losses)

Run home: Storm (l)

Best finish: 8th

Worst finish: Miss the top eight, 12th

Verdict: It’s been a disappointing fall from grace for the Broncos, who have gone from a grand final to missing the play offs altogether within the space of a year. A tough 40-6 loss to the Dolphins ended their finals hopes for good and it just gets tougher from here. They face a close to full-strength Melbourne side at Suncorp Stadium to finish off a dreadful season.

WARRIORS

Current position: 13th (23 points, 9 wins, 14 losses, 1 draw, 2 byes, -62pd)

Prediction: 13th (23pts, 9 wins, 14 losses, 1 draw)

Run home: bye

Best finish: 13th

Worst finish: 14th

Verdict: The Warriors finish the regular season on a bye. Currently 13th on the ladder, the Warriors could finish as low as 14th if the Titans can spring a shock upset against reigning premiers Penrith on Saturday night. After a top four finish last year, and generating a huge wave of support in New Zealand, the Warriors have been on the big disappointments in 2024.

GOLD COAST TITANS

Current position: 14th (22 points, 8 wins, 15 losses, 3 byes, -162 pd)

Prediction: 14th (22pts, 8 wins, 16 losses)

Run home: Panthers (l)

Best finish: 13th

Worst finish: 15th

Verdict: They found a patch of form there for a while to spark finals chat, but have lost their past four games in a tough finish to the season. It doesn’t get much harder than facing Penrith in Penrith to end the year.

SOUTH SYDNEY RABBITOHS

Current position: 15th (20 points, 7 wins, 16 losses, 3 byes, -180pd)

Prediction: 15th (20pts, 7 wins, 17 losses)

Run home: Roosters (l)

Best finish: 14th

Worst finish: 16th

Verdict: It’s been a horrible season for Souths who are missing 10 regular first-graders from the squad to end the year. A final round clash with the Roosters would typically be a blockbuster finish to the season, but the Rabbitohs have lost their last six games and all they can do now is act as a banana peel for their arch rivals.

The Wests Tigers and Eels will battle to avoid the spoon. Picture: Matt King/Getty Images

PARRAMATTA EELS

Current position: 16th (18 points, 6 wins, 17 losses, 3 byes, -189pd)

Prediction: 17th (18pts, 6 wins, 18 losses)

Run home: Tigers (l)

Best finish: 16th

Worst finish: 17th

Verdict: They shocked the Dragons with a wild 44-40 win on Saturday, but they’re still in danger of the wooden spoon. They have the thrill of being one side of the ‘spoon bowl’ on Friday night against the Wests Tigers at Campbelltown Stadium. While they’re coming off a win, the Tigers are coming off a bye after two wins, so form is evenly matched. The winner avoids the game’s highest dishonour.

WESTS TIGERS

Current position: 17th (18 points, 6 wins, 17 losses, 3 byes, -253 pd)

Prediction: 16th (20pts, 7 wins, 18 losses)

Run home: Eels (w)

Best Finish: 16th

Worst Finish: 17th

Verdict: To borrow an overused phrase, the ball is in their court to end a run of two straight wooden spoons. Back-to-back wins over the Souths and Manly heading into the bye have put them in the perfect spot to avoid last place with a win over Parramatta at Campbelltown on Friday night. It’s simple. Lose and they land their third consecutive last-place finish.

Originally published as The run home: Round 27 of the NRL, where does your club finish?