The Run Home: How many wins every team needs as the race to the finals heats up

We’re at the halfway point of the 2025 NRL season, and the top eight race is still wide open. We reveal how many wins your team needs to play finals, who will miss out and who will make a late surge.

The race to the NRL finals series is wide open and with the season at its halfway point, we crunch the numbers on how many wins your team needs to lock in a September spot.

Taking into account the finish to the last three regular seasons, teams needed at least 30 points to scrape into the top eight.

A top four finish, which almost a must-need ingredient for a trophy, needed at least 36 points on average.

We take a look at how many wins your side needs to be playing finals footy, where on the ladder they are likely to finish, and which teams are primed for a finals charge.

Even if Lachlan Galvin’s arrival poses teething issues for Cameron Ciraldo, the Bulldogs can drop six of their remaining 13 clashes and still be in the frame for a top four finish. Only have one bye in hand and three danger games against the lowly-placed plucky Eels and Panthers, who will be desperate to keep their finals hopes alive. Forward Jacob Preston is back on deck from suspension in Round 15 but Sitili Tupouniua (hamstring) is out for an extended period.

VERDICT: 2nd – On track to finish with 42 points and in the top four for the first time since 2012.

Only a devastating bout of complacency can undo Canberra’s surge to the finals. Youngsters Owen Pattie, Kaeo Weekes, Ethan Strange and Savelio Tamale just get better with each game. Won’t travel outside of Canberra in July, which will only help freshen up the side for the run home. Keeping veteran halfback Jamal Fogarty (groin) healthy is key. Only other major injury is to backrower Matty Nicholson, who is not back until round 23.

VERDICT: 1st – With three byes in hand a pretty soft run that includes only the Dragons and Manly from the current top eight teams, Canberra should be heading for a top two finish.

Two of the Warriors’ three losses have been away games against top four opposition, making clashes against the Sharks and Bulldogs in Sydney real danger games. The loss of hardman Mitch Barnett (ACL) for the run home is huge, but it opens the door for exciting forwards Tanner Stowers-Smith, Jacob Laban and Leka Halasima.

VERDICT: 3rd – They should win at least four from the five home games, which include Penrith, Dragons, Titans, Dolphins and Tigers, keeping them in the hunt for a top four finish.

Melbourne’s top four charge could be undone with a trying final month of the season. They take on a desperate Panthers side, ladder leaders Bulldogs, a Roosters side that can’t be taken lightly, before a trip to Suncorp to take on Brisbane. Have a tricky away trip to Townsville with no Origin stars in Round 18 but the Cowboys will be in a similar predicament.

VERDICT: 4th – Melbourne need to address their inconsistency or it could cost them a top four spot, they have not won back-to-back games since April.

Sharks have to face three out of the current top four sides, including Warriors at home and the Storm and Bulldogs on the road. They upset Melbourne in Round 11 but dropped games against the Roosters and Tigers they should have won. Will also take on fierce local rivals Dragons, who are vastly improved in 2025, twice.

VERDICT: 5th – Even with two byes in hand, won’t pick up enough wins to finish in the top four given a number of tricky clashes against the Roosters and Cowboys.

The Cowboys will be boosted by the injection of veteran Jason Taumalolo (calf) from Round 15. But they have to face the Storm twice, starting with a tough road trip to Melbourne this week before back-to-back Sydney games in August against the Sharks and Eels.

VERDICT: 13th – Can come home with a wet sail with a favourable final four weeks of the season against the Knights, Tigers and Broncos before a bye in Round 27.

The only consistent thing about the Sea Eagles this season has been their inconsistency. They have shown they can beat anyone on their day and if they are there when the whips are cracking at the end of the year, they will likely have Taniela Paseka back on deck.

VERDICT: 6th – The Sea Eagles have a pretty good run home with two games against the Wests Tigers as well as games against Newcastle, the Gold Coast, Souths and the Roosters.

The Dragons have lost some close contests and had they been able to win those, they would be entrenched in the top eight. As it stands they have done well to put themselves back in the mix.

VERDICT: 12th – The Dragons have a tough run home with two games against the in-form Raiders and two against the Sharks. They also have games against the Bulldogs, Cowboys and Warriors.

The Rabbitohs have battled injuries all season but coach Wayne Bennett has done a remarkable job to keep them in contention for the top eight. They are starting to get bodies back now and will have Brandon Smith for the run home. Dangerous.

VERDICT: 10th – The Rabbitohs have a tough few weeks coming up with games against Canberra, the Bulldogs and Melbourne. Provided they can stay in touch with the top eight, they have an easier run home and could make a late charge.

The Dolphins have flashed their potential at times this season but they haven’t been consistent enough to string together a series of wins. Injuries have hurt – Tom Flegler’s career remains in doubt as he deals with a nerve issue and Tom Gilbert will miss the rest of the season.

VERDICT: 11th – The Dolphins have a mixed run home but they have a couple of byes in hand and have the ability to make a run at the top eight if they can get their mojo on.

The Broncos started the season in reasonable touch but have hit an ugly slump which has heaped pressure on everyone. The return of Reece Walsh should help but they need a spark.

VERDICT: 7th – The Broncos face the Storm twice in the final five weeks but those games aside, their draw over the closing two months isn’t overly difficult. If they can stay in the mix, they could come home strongly.

The Roosters were expected to undergo a rebuild this season but they remain in finals contention and the return of Sam Walker should be a significant boost heading into the back end of the season.

VERDICT: 9th – The Roosters have six of their final eight games against sides currently in the top eight, including a pair of meetings against Melbourne. They need to win some games in coming weeks to ensure their season doesn’t fizzle out.

Equal second worst defence in the competition highlighted by some heavy defeats to Melbourne and Brisbane but overall have shown improvement this year. Fonua Pole will return within the next month and Latu Fainu will get a shot in the halves. Even Jarome Luai’s premiership prowess won’t be enough to spark a finals surge.

VERDICT: 15th – Have to play Penrith twice before the end of the season. They also face a tough back end of the draw where four of their final five games are against top eight teams.

An unimaginable start to the season and will have to carefully navigate the Origin period without the luxury of extended breaks for some of their stars including an away game against the Warriors after Origin II. No long-term injuries, which helps. Will need Nathan Cleary’s masterclass against the Eels in Round 13 on repeat during their last-ditch finals charge.

VERDICT: 8th – Have a crucial period where they play five consecutive games against teams outside the top eight. Need to win four of those to make a charge up the ladder.

Have had a horrid run with injury but in the next couple of weeks will eventually welcome back Jacob Saifiti, Leo Thompson, Greg Marzhew, Tyson Gamble and Bradman Best. They also have Dom Young coming in two weeks but Adam Elliott may have played his last game for the club.

VERDICT: 16th – A mixed run home which features Canberra twice and three of the top four teams. Have left their run too late despite being able to make the finals from similar spots in recent years. Won’t happen this year.

With six games against teams outside the top eight, the Eels will fancy their chances of making a late run. They will spend a large chunk of time in Sydney with only three road games to Canberra, Brisbane and New Zealand to finish the year. No superstars on the sideline but get boom rookie Sam Tuivaiti (ankle) back in round 19.

VERDICT: 14th – Have shown significant improvement, which is natural given Mitch Moses missed a large chunk of the start of the season, but not enough to be in the finals mix.

David Fifita’s availability still remains up in the air while the Titans are hopeful Keano Kini will have a chance of getting back on the field at the back end of the season.

VERDICT: 17th – Seemed destined for a wooden spoon unless they can overcome the Broncos twice. They also play New Zealand twice before the end of the year. Five of their final six games are either on the Gold Coast or in Brisbane.

Originally published as The Run Home: How many wins every team needs as the race to the finals heats up