The NRL Run Home: Fixtures, predicted ladder for NRL finals
Tough upcoming games for the Rabbitohs, Eels and Wests Tigers could shuffle the bottom of the table as they desperately try to avoid the spoon. See how the season could finish for your team.
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The minor premiership has all but been decided but the race to the least wanted honour – the wooden spoon – is well and truly wide open.
A surging Manly Sea Eagles is set to threaten Cronulla’s place in the top four spot with only three remaining round games in the regular season.
St George Illawarra will go into the home run as the masters of their own finals destiny after reclaiming 8th spot over the Dolphins this weekend.
But their finals berth is far from guaranteed with the Dolphins and Broncos refusing to go away.
We’ve crunched the numbers and found the teams with a big advantage to finish the season, those who won’t be so lucky and the teams who might just sneak into the finals after a wild ride.
MELBOURNE STORM
Current position: 1st (40 points, 17 wins, 4 losses, 3 byes, +171 points differential)
Kdouh’s prediction: 1st (46pts, 20 wins, 4 losses)
Run home: Dolphins (w), Cowboys (w), Broncos (w)
Verdict: A win against Penrith last week has guaranteed the minor premiership. The talking point now for the Storm is whether Craig Bellamy rests his troops ahead of the finals but the coach has expressed some fears about losing momentum. Even with stars rested, the Storm are likely to be too strong for the three Queensland teams. Will be boosted by the returns of Xavier Coates and Christian Welch from injury.
PENRITH PANTHERS
Current position: 2nd (36 points, 15 wins, 6 losses 3 byes, +162pd)
Kdouh’s prediction: 2nd (42pts, 18 wins, 6 losses)
Run home: Raiders (w), Rabbitohs (w), Titans (w)
Verdict: Halfback Nathan Cleary (shoulder) is gone at least for the regular season. The loss against Melbourne last week is hardly ideal but Jarome Luai should deputise for Cleary with ease. Penrith have won four from five with Luai at halfback this year. Liam Martin returns from suspension this week, while hooker Mitch Kenny will miss the Raiders clash for a high tackle ban. Even without Cleary, Penrith should win every run home game.
SYDNEY ROOSTERS
Current position: 3rd (34 points, 14 wins, 7 losses, 3 byes, +243pd)
Kdouh’s prediction: 3rd (40pts, 17 wins, 7 losses)
Run home: Titans (w), Raiders (w), Rabbitohs (w)
Verdict: It’s a favourable three weeks for the Roosters, boosted by the return of enforcer Jared Waerea-Hargreaves (suspension), the availability of Nat Butcher (ribs) and Michael Jennings (suspension). Defensive issues have been the Roosters biggest concern in recent weeks but managed to keep the Eels to just 14 points last weekend. Have the chance to go into the finals with huge momentum on the back of six-straight wins to finish the regular season.
CRONULLA SHARKS
Current position: 4th (34 points, 14 wins, 7 losses, 3 byes, +176pd)
Kdouh’s prediction: 5th (36pts, 16 wins, 10 losses)
Run home: Dragons (l), Warriors (w), Sea Eagles (l)
Verdict: Cronulla will be buoyed by the return of Braydon Trindall (hamstring) which will push Blayke Brailey back to hooker after being named at halfback in recent weeks. The Sharks are on a three-game winning streak after the Newcastle golden point victory but face two banana peel sides in Dragons and Sea Eagles. The losses will see Cronulla slip out of the top four. But the return of halfback Nicho Hynes (ankle) will increase the side’s chances of victory this week and in the final round.
CANTERBURY BULLDOGS
Current position: 5th (32 points, 13 wins, 8 losses, 3 byes, +130pd)
Kdouh’s prediction: 6th (36pts, 15 wins, 9 losses)
Run home: Warriors (w), Sea Eagles (l), Cowboys (w)
Verdict: A 20-point margin in last weekend’s win against the Dolphins has helped improve Canterbury’s points differential but it won’t be enough to hold onto 5th place. They have only conceded 20 points in the last two games but the Sea Eagles and Cowboys will test the side’s defensive steel. The bigger test of the two clashes is Manly at Accor Stadium in round 26 and even their win record at the venue (seven from eight this year) might not be enough to overcome a surging Sea Eagles.
MANLY SEA EAGLES
Current position: 6th (31 points, 12 wins, 8 losses, 1 draw, 3 byes, +129pd)
Kdouh’s prediction: 4th (37pts, 15 wins, 8 losses, 1 draw)
Run home: Tigers (w), Bulldogs (w), Sharks (w)
Verdict: We’ve predicted Cronulla to slip against the Dragons, which will open the door wide for Manly to finish in the top four with the one-point advantage from the round six draw against the Warriors to be the difference. But that will still require a round 27 win against the Sharks. Manly’s recent form, especially that of influential fullback Tom Trbojevic, and the home ground advantage though should get the side over the line.
NORTH QUEENSLAND COWBOYS
Current position: 7th (30pts, 13 wins, 9 losses, 2 byes, +43pd)
Kdouh’s prediction: 7th (32pts, 13 wins, 11 losses)
Run home: bye, Storm (l), Bulldogs (l)
Verdict: After leaking 72 points against Brisbane and the Tigers, the Cowboys have shored up their defensive structures to keep Canberra to one try on the weekend. While they were also rampant in attack against the Raiders, the Storm and Bulldogs are a level above and will trouble Todd Payten’s men. The bye should get them to the magic 32 number, and a top eight berth. Jake Clifford’s injection will give them an edge a the right time but Jason Taumalolo (cheekbone) won’t be back until next week.
ST GEORGE ILLAWARRA DRAGONS
Current position: 8th (28 points, 11 wins, 10 losses, 3 byes, -92pd)
Kdouh’s prediction: 8th (32pts, 13 wins, 11 losses)
Run home: Sharks (w), Eels (w), Raiders (l)
Verdict: After a gritty win against the Titans, the Dragons are in control of their finals destiny. They have struggled for consistency but Shane Flanagan can build on the tough over the weekend to get his side up for the local derby against the Sharks The Raiders are a bogey team and have only beaten the green machine 13 times from 38 attempts. Kyle Flanagan’s regular season is over (biting suspension) but Jack Bird got the job done against the Titans, in first NRL game since round 19.
DOLPHINS
Current position: 9th (26 points, 10 wins, 11 losses, 3 byes, +15pd)
Kdouh’s prediction: 9th (28pts, 11 wins, 13 losses)
Run home: Storm (l), Broncos (w), Knights (l)
Verdict: With everything to play for, the Dolphins couldn’t get the job done against Canterbury in Bundaberg. That loss, and the Dragons’ win, has seen them slip out of the top eight. The Storm could be depleted if Bellamy opts to rest players but a win is more probable against Brisbane at Suncorp Stadium than Newcastle at McDonald Jones Stadium. Hooker Jeremy Marshall-King (foot) is set to return this week at hooker pushing Max Plath to lock, where the duo can form a one-two punch through the middle.
BRISBANE BRONCOS
Current position: 10th (24 points, 9 wins, 12 losses, 3 byes, -4dp)
Kdouh’s prediction: 11th (26pts, 10 wins, 14 losses)
Run home: Eels (w), Dolphins (l), Storm (l)
Verdict: Reece Walsh (hand) has joined Ezra Mam (ankle) and Payne Haas (foot) in the casualty ward. While the club has refused to rule the fullback out for the season, he’s in serious doubt to line-up against the Eels. But Parramatta, who were uninspiring against the Roosters on the weekend, are still a winnable proposition. Could finish with 30 points but Wayne Bennett and Craig Bellamy are poised to outsmart the Broncos in the final two rounds.
NEWCASTLE KNIGHTS
Current position: 11th (24 points, 9 wins, 12 losses, 3 byes, -90pd)
Kdouh’s prediction: 10th (28pts, 11 wins, 13 losses)
Run home: Rabbitohs (w), Titans (l), Dolphins (w)
Verdict: The golden-point loss against Cronulla hasn’t buried Newcastle mathematically but threatens to bury them psychologically. A South Sydney side without Cody Walker this week is very beatable but the Titans are patchy and can ambush most sides on their day.
The Knights need to win every game and hope the Dolphins, Broncos and Dragons fumble every game on their respective home runs to be a shot of snatching a top eight spot. Star centre Bradman Best (hamstring) could be back in round 26.
CANBERRA RAIDERS
Current position: 12th (24 points, 9 wins, 12 losses, 3 byes, -135pd)
Kdouh’s prediction: 12th (26pts, 10 wins, 14 losses)
Run home: Panthers (l), Roosters (l), Dragons (w)
Verdict: After three-straight losses to Bulldogs, Sea Eagles and the Cowboys – and conceding 110 points in the process – the Raiders have all but put the cue in the rack this season. Canberra is unlikely to be able to keep up with three-time premiers Penrith and a red hot Roosters side. But they can finish the season with some pride against the Dragons in what has historically been a winnable game – Canberra have won the past three clashes.
GOLD COAST TITANS
Current position: 13th (22 points, 8 wins, 13 losses, 3 byes, -114 pd)
Kdouh’s prediction: 13th (24pts, 9 wins, 15 losses)
Run home: Roosters (l), Knights (w), Panthers (l)
Verdict: Mo Fotuaika (suspension) will return this week but the Titans are unlikely to trouble the Roosters this week. Des Hasler’s men can turn it on and the Knights clash is winnable if the likes of Keano Kini, Jayden Campbell and David Fifita fire. But Titans can also falter, like they did against the Dragons, where all the possession and territory was in their favour but could not find the points when it mattered most.
WARRIORS
Current position: 14th (21 points, 8 wins, 13 losses, 1 draw, 2 byes, -48pd)
Kdouh’s prediction: 14th (23pts, 8 wins, 15 losses, 1 draw)
Run home: Bulldogs (l), Sharks (l), bye
Verdict: Not even the return of veteran halfback Shaun Johnson was enough to stop the Warriors from slumping to three-straight losses after going down to Manly last weekend. Johnson will get his farewell in front of a home crowd at Go Media Stadium but the Bulldogs are poised to spoil the retirement party.
SOUTH SYDNEY RABBITOHS
Current position: 15th (20 points, 7 wins, 14 losses, 3 byes, -138pd)
Kdouh’s prediction: 15th (20pts, 7 wins, 17 losses)
Run home: Knights (l), Panthers (l), Roosters (l)
Verdict: If missing Latrell Mitchell to the white substance scandal wasn’t enough, Ben Hornby will also be without playmaker Cody Walker (concussion) against the Knights and will likely turn to Dean Hawkins at halfback. It’s turned a winnable game against Newcastle into a real tough challenge and now the Bunnies are staring down the barrel of finishing the season with seven-straight losses. Incoming coach Wayne Bennett has his work cut out for him in 2025.
PARRAMATTA EELS
Current position: 16th (16 points, 5 wins, 16 losses, 3 byes, -187pd)
Kdouh’s prediction: 16th (18pts, 6 wins, 18 losses)
Run home: Broncos (l), Dragons (l), Tigers (w)
Verdict: Parramatta’s performance against the Roosters felt like the side had little left in the tank after giving their all in the Penrith loss the week before. Brisbane fresh off the bye at Suncorp Stadium will be a tough ask so will the Dragons, who will approach every one of their last three games with a must-win finals like intensity. Dropping both games sets up Spoon Bowl in round 27 against the Tigers.
WESTS TIGERS
Current position: 17th (14 points, 5 wins, 17 losses, 2 byes, -261 pd)
Kdouh’s prediction: 17th (16pts, 5 wins, 19 losses)
Run home: Sea Eagles (l), bye, Eels (l)
Verdict: With a bye up their sleeves, the Tigers can avoid the wooden spoon if Parramatta loses against the Broncos and Dragons, and then of course take down the Eels in the final round. The Tigers will rate themselves a chance in round 27 at Campbelltown Stadium – the venue where two of their five paltry wins have come this year.
Originally published as The NRL Run Home: Fixtures, predicted ladder for NRL finals
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