Sydney Roosters v St George Dragons | Melbourne Storm v NZ Warriors: NRL Round 8 ANZAC Day betting preview

It’s a massive NRL ANZAC Day double-header as Sydney takes on St George-Illawarra and Melbourne hosts New Zealand. Who do the odds like?

Jared Waerea-Hargreaves of the Roosters runs with the ball during NRL round seven. Picture: Matt King/Getty Images

Not a lot beats the NRL’s ANZAC Day double header, but let’s be real - are the Dragons any chance of keeping this thing close against the Roosters?

The Roosters created big headlines midweek, dropping rising star half Sam Walker. Let’s see what kind of ramifications it has.

Meanwhile, the Storm are riding a 13-game win streak against the Warriors: does New Zealand have a chance in 2023?

SYDNEY ROOSTERS: $1.23 (via bet365)

ST GEORGE-ILLAWARRA DRAGONS: $4.65 (via Betr)

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There’s probably a conversation to be had as to whether a Dragons club doing so much wrong off the field deserves to keep getting such a big annual game.

But we’re here to find good value and backing the Dragons’ opponent pays off most weeks.

• Total Points - Over 41.5: $1.80 (via TopSport)

CHOOKS CHASE A RESPONSE

Coach Trent Robinson will be looking for a response, after making a huge midweek statement and sending Sam Walker back to the twos.

Brandon Smith of the Roosters celebrates after scoring a try. Picture: Matt King/Getty Images

Joey Manu is an excellent replacement option in the halves and we can expect more possessions and more ball-running from one of the best players on the planet.

Even without Walker, with all the weapons at its disposal like Brandon Smith, James Tedesco and Joseph Sua‘ali’i, this Roosters side are capable of going big here.

• Sydney Roosters Total Points - Over 25.5: $1.77 (via Ladbrokes)

Jaxson Paulo has also gotten in for multiple tries twice already this season: against this Dragons defence, he’s not a bad look to do so again.

• Jaxson Paulo - 2+ tries: $5.40 (via Ladbrokes)

DRAGONS IN FOR A DRUBBING?

Assessing this roster against the Roosters, it’s tough to wrap your head around how a similar amount of money has been spent on each.

It’s the most uninspiring roster in the comp, that very heavily relies on creation and production from Ben Hunt.

• Ben Hunt - anytime try scorer: $4.50 (via Betr)

The Roosters should make short work of the Dragons, having beaten them on seven straight occasions at home, plus Sydney has covered the line in seven of their last nine home games.

THE PICK: Sydney Roosters -12.5, $1.91 (via bet365)

Cameron Munster of the Storm during NRL round seven. Picture: Cameron Spencer/Getty Images

MELBOURNE STORM: $1.28 (via bet365)

NEW ZEALAND WARRIORS: $4.15 (via Betr)

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It would appear as though odds-setters are leaning heavily into the historical evidence, over recent form.

Because while Melbourne has won each of its last 13 games against the Storm, the Warriors haven’t looked this competent for a long time.

Interestingly, the last four Melbourne games have gone under the total points line.

• Total Points - Under 42.5: $1.91 (via bet365)

STORMING HOME

Melbourne are always the home team in this game, which has undoubtedly skewed the ANZAC game numbers even more firmly in their favour.

But in spite of that, they can expect the biggest challenge this fixture has seen in years.

Admittedly, Melbourne has also displayed proficiency in spades throughout this season already and amazingly Justin Olam has scored a try in four straight games against the Warriors.

• Justin Olam - anytime try scorer: $2.75 (via Betr)

Warriors celebrate a try to Josh Curran during NRL round seven. Picture: Andy Jackson/Getty Images

WARRIORS’ BEST CHANCE IN YEARS

The Warriors are a rank outsider here, but make no mistake - they can win this game.

First-year coach Andrew Webster has the group playing more organised and confident footy, with way higher defensive standards.

Tohu Harris is back in the mix, leaving this side a little closer to full strength. Wayde Egan’s absence at hooker may hurt them, though.

Expect this group to put up a hell of a fight.

• New Zealand Warriors - Total Points - Over 14.5: $1.92 (via Ladbrokes)

A lot of that fight? It might come from Edward Kosi. He’s scored a try in four of the last five Warriors games.

• Edward Kosi - anytime try scorer: $2.61 (via TopSport)

FIRST TRY SCORER

The Storm’s Xavier Coates doesn’t mind getting in first and has been the first try-scorer in two of his last three games against the Warriors.

• First Try scorer - Xavier Coates: $8 (via Betr)

The Storm might have won 13 straight over the Warriors, but in 12 of the last 16 games they’ve won as favourites, Melbourne hasn’t covered the line.

THE PICK: New Zealand Warriors +12.5: $1.90 (via TopSport) 

[all odds as of April 23]

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Originally published as Sydney Roosters v St George Dragons | Melbourne Storm v NZ Warriors: NRL Round 8 ANZAC Day betting preview