SuperCoach NRL Fix My Team: Round 11

IN this week’s edition of SuperCoach NRL Fix My Team resident demi-guru Rob Sutherland identifies a gun who has to go, one who needs to stay and a cow being slaughtered too early.

IN this week’s edition of SuperCoach NRL Fix My Team — brought to you by hipages — resident demi-guru Rob Sutherland identifies a gun who has to go, one who needs to stay and a cow being slaughtered too early.

ANALYSIS: SuperCoach winners and losers form Round 11 teams

It's time for NRL SuperCoach Fix My Team presented by hipages.

WHAT TO DO WITH SJ?

The good

The frustrating thing for Shaun Johnson owners, and non-owners to be honest, is that when he’s on the field he plays so well. Six games, one poor score (35) and then 86, 82, 74, 82 and 81 ... yes I know it seems counterintuitive that owners would find a player performing well to be frustrating but stick with me and I’ll get to that.

The bad

The exasperating thing for owners, as a non-owner I’ll admit I kind of like it, is that SJ is on the field so erratically.

Ten rounds and just the six games played so far.

On top of that the Warriors halfback will miss this week due to his ankle injury and there’s no guarantee he’ll be right for round 12.

Then the Warriors have a bye in round 13.

The pain does not end there for Johnson owners, with Warriors coach Stephen Kearney stating that any of his players that feature in the June 23 Test match against England in Denver will not be considered for selection for the round 16 match against the Sharks.

Now assuming we can take Kearney at his word, a stretch when it comes to selections I know, in the next six games Johnson will at best be available for just three games, two if he’s not fit for round 12.

And here lies the rub for the 29,500 who have ridden the SJ rollercoaster thus far — when he’s on the field there is no halfback who can hold a candle to him. Daly Cherry-Evans is the only other halfback averaging over 60 PPG to have played over two games — and SJ’s average is more than 20% higher than DCE’s.

No player is dominating their position by such a margin, though Damien Cook is giving it a nudge at hooker.

In between bossing it on the field there’s been a fair bit of this from Shaun Johnson.

The question

And that, I imagine, is every SJ owners dilemma. Can you continue to carry a player who has only played 60% of available games, and will miss between 4, or at best 3, of the next six games?

Well I suppose it all depends on who your other HFB is doesn’t it? Plenty of people are dealing with Ryley Jacks (yeah I’m one) and if you’re trading one half you probably don’t want to be trading both.

If you are trading out your other half it really needs to be someone who covers round 13, and as I have mentioned in previous weeks there are question marks galore over the usual suspects who do so (JT below his best, DCE may lose goalkicking with Hodkinson joining Manly, Adam Reynolds injury risk, Ben Hunt Origin etc).

The answer

I think there’s only one half other than Johnson worth owning for the run home and that’s Nathan Cleary.

And even Cleary has his knocks, with Origin a possibility and the Panthers on a bye in round 13. On top of that, Cleary has a massive BE due to his injury impacted last game so ideally you would not buy him until after round 12, and thanks to that round 13 bye Cleary would not play for you until round 14. So pencil that trade in.

In the meantime look for a half who can cover you through rounds 11-13 inclusive, who should make money and potentially score you reasonable points over the span. With the knocks on those listed above in mind I’m going a little left field this week with Newcastle’s Brock Lamb.

Brock Lamb of the Knights could be a useful 3-4 week pick-up if you need a HFB.

Lamb, are ewe kidding?*

No I am not kidding. I am sorry for the horrible pun though.

I appreciate that at first glance it may appear strange to recommend a player who currently ‘boasts’ a 23 PPG average. But I would argue that you should discard Lamb’s first six games of the season as he was either playing reduced minutes and/or playing very much second fiddle to Mitchell Pearce.

Lamb was brought back into the Knights starting squad for round 10 replacing Jack Cogger as coach Nathan Brown wanted to improve his team’s kicking game. Lamb rewarded his coach with two forced drop outs, two goals from two shots and more metres per kick than the Panthers. More importantly for SuperCoach purposes, Lamb broke the Penrith defensive line and put Kalyn Ponga over for a try, scoring 65 points all told.

In 2017, Lamb played 21 games scoring five tries and 15 try assists to average 47.8. Not exactly the most electrifying runner, Lamb is solid in defence and a reliable goalkicker so he has a decent floor for a half. He can also fill his boots when the going is good as he showed when he scored triple figures in consecutive weeks in 2017.

With a reasonable draw in the next four weeks — Titans (away), Sharks (home), Eels (away) and Roosters (home) — Lamb is forecast to make $100K profit if he can average 48 over that span.

I’m not suggesting Lamb is a lock and load half for the rest of the season, but if you, like me, are looking for someone to get you through the next few rounds who is available at a price that won’t leave you feeling fleeced then he might be a good fit.

* And I’ll take this opportunity to issue an apology to George Wilson for advising against getting Lamb last week on the FB Fix My Team post. All I can say is that was a quick reaction, this is my more considered opinion. Then again I was all in on TKO in the pre-season so ...

Cameron Smith of the Storm now covers round 17.

CUTTING CAM SMITH LOOSE

At the time of writing this Cam Smith is the third most sold player with over 2000 coaches no longer believing in unicorns.

With Smith suspended for round 11 following his attack on former teammates Kevin Proctor’s groin and then (what people thought was) his certain Origin selection, the SC great was set to miss three of the next six games and play reduced minutes over that span too.

Hit that reverse button

And then the biggest of big NRL bombshells dropped at around 12:15pm on Tuesday with the news that Smith had retired from representative football with immediate effect.

Sooo now C Smith looks a whole lot more appealing doesn’t he? Sure he’ll still miss this week due the dodgy tackle. And the Storm miss round 13 with the bye. But after that Smith becomes pure gold. Round 17 bye coverage is hard to come by and Smith and the Storm will be playing a severely depleted Dragons team (with at least four Dragons looking locked in to Origin teams and a couple more on the fringe) that round.

Smith is now a strong hold for mine. However I wrote the below few paragraphs when he was the second most sold player for the round, and there looks to still be a few of you pulling the trade lever so if you are selling please read on:

I’m selling anyways

The most popular pick up for Smith is Damien Cook and while the South Sydney rake looks set to miss two of the next six as the origin selection whispers become a roar he is dominating the hooker position and I have no argument with that trade.

The second most popular acquisition in place of Smith is Manly hooker Api Koroisau.

Koroisau presents with an attractive mixture of attacking flair and base stat reliability with the most try assists of any hooker along with the third most tackles, as a result he currently has the second most points at his position and a 3RA of 61.0. With Origin selection hopes faint Api will be the best hooker available in the round 13 bye and with a BE of 11 this is the week to get him.

I’m not sure I would make the move, and as a result of having other problems to deal with it’s not an option I need to agonise over. As I have said a few times on the podcast I just don’t see how people can field a full 17 in round 13 and then do the same in round 17 (not and leave yourself a reasonable number of trades for the run home) and as such I think I’ll probably end up running without a hooker in round 13.

Is Anthony Griffin really going to punt Viliame Kikau to the bench?

TIME TO PUNT BILLY KIKS?

Anyone think Penrith coach Anthony Griffin is just messing with us by naming Corey Harawira-Naera as a starter and Viliame Kikau on the bench?

So far this year Kikau has:

* made more tackles than CHN (and missed less),

* broken three tackles for each of CHN’s one

* made two offloads for each of CHN’s one

* made one more linebreak and linebreak assist than CHN, and

* made 60 more hit-ups with 62 per cent of his hit-ups over 8m as compared to CHN’s who surpasses that mark just 44 per cent of the time.

I understand we’re not comparing apples and apples exactly as CHN spent a bit more time in the centres than Kikau did over the past few weeks, but regardless I think the numbers show that Kikau is currently a better option in the 2RF than CHN.

That said, even if Hook does start Kikau off the bench I’m expecting the big fella to make an immediate impact off the bench against a tiring defence 20 minutes into the first half.

Despite the Tigers being one of the better defensive teams when it comes to points against 2RF I’m prepared to give Kikau at least a week to see how he goes. With a BE of 56 you won’t lose much money even if he puts in a stinker and I’d need to see a stinker before being prepared to part ways with a player who is posting borderline keeper numbers in the FRF and who covers the tricky round 17 bye.

Originally published as SuperCoach NRL Fix My Team: Round 11