Run to the finals: The games that could flip NRLW on its head

It’s the last round of the NRLW but there’s still one spot up for grabs in the finals. We’ve calculated all the scenarios leading to glory for the five teams still in contention.

Five teams are vying for four spots in the NRLW.

Dally M medallist and Newcastle superstar Tamika Upton is the best player in the NRLW.

And the Knights desperately need her if they’re to defend back-to-back premierships over the next couple of weeks.

The 27-year-old is warming up to her best at the back end of the season after a try and two try-assists in Sunday’s grand final rematch on the Gold Coast.

Coming into the last round of NRLW, the Knights are clinging onto fourth spot on the ladder and need a win to ensure their spot in the finals with Parramatta nipping at their heels.

After landing the wooden spoon last year, the Eels have made a stunning turn around to get within a sniff of the top four.

While the Broncos, Roosters and Sharks are assured a spot in the finals, they’ll go to battle for the minor premiership across a big weekend of pre-finals football.

Dependent on results the venues for NRLW semi-finals are yet to be locked in, while first will play fourth, and second will play third for a place in the decider in just over a fortnight.

And after a season of twists and turns anything could happen.

We’ve crunched the numbers to see what needs to happen for the Eels to make the finals which could flip the competition on its head this weekend.

Sam Bremner continues to be the X-factor at the Roosters. Picture: Jason McCawley/Getty Images

1. ROOSTERS

Wins: 6, Losses: 2, Pts: 12, Pts differential: 96

Prediction: 2nd (7 wins, 2 losses, 14 pts)

The run home: Eels at CommBank Stadium (W)

Verdict: Much like the men’s team, the star-studded Roosters have been smacked with an injury crisis this season. Stars Corban Baxter (ACL), Jess Sergis (MCL), Tarryn Aiken (shoulder) and Shawden Burton (hamstring) are all sidelined, while Isabelle Kelly (ankle) also sent a scare through the side with an ankle injury in Sunday’s win over the Cowboys. But somehow they just keep winning. The Roosters are desperate for success this year after falling at the final hurdle in the past few seasons. The 2021 premiers have been knocked out of the semi-finals by the Titans and Eels in the past two seasons despite being pre-season favourites for the title. The only difference is they’re showing a tenacity that could get them there in 2024.

Gayle Broughton has been electrifying. Picture: NRL Photos

2. BRONCOS

Wins: 6, Losses: 2, Pts: 12, Pts differential: 86

Prediction: 1st (7 wins, 2 losses, 14 pts)

The run home: Dragons at Queensland Country Bank Stadium (W)

Verdict: It’s been a huge season for the Broncos who lost their opening two games to the Eels and Roosters only to bounce back over the next six weeks to become competition favourites for the title. The addition of Gold medal Olympian Stacey Waaka to the wing has been a game changer for the Broncos with six tries in six games. However, she suffered a suspected fractured leg in their last-minute win over the Sharks which comes as a big blow on the eve of the finals. Fullback Hayley Maddick is also having the season of her career with nine try assists and three tries, while five-eighth Gayle Broughton has managed return from a back injury with class. They’re neck and neck with the Roosters for the minor premiership which will be decided in Saturday’s double-header in Townsville.

Tayla Preston is key to the Sharks’ finals hopes. Picture: Chris Hyde/Getty Images

3. SHARKS

Wins: 6, Losses: 2, Pts: 12, Pts differential: 26

Prediction: 3rd (7 wins, 2 losses, 14 pts)

The run home: Tigers at PointsBet Stadium (W)

Verdict: Cronulla have been the surprise packet of 2024 and looked set for the minor premiership with six straight wins to start the season. However, the wheels have fallen off in the last few weeks with back-to-back losses to the Roosters and Broncos to put their premiership credentials in a hint of doubt. They lost fullback Jada Taylor early in the season, but have recruited ex-Rugby Sevens stars Dom du Toit and Sharni Smale to give the squad a boost. Halfback Tayla Preston has also been on fire with the boot with 16 goals for the season. The Tigers are bottom of the ladder and will get the wooden spoon this season, but after a surprise victory over the Dragons last weekend the Sharks can’t expect to win either. A loss will put them at risk of slipping out of the top four with the Eels and Knights within reach to leapfrog them.

Tamika Upton needs to be at her best. Picture: Brendon Thorne/Getty Images

4. KNIGHTS

Wins: 5, Losses: 3, Pts: 10, Pts differential: 74

Prediction: 4th (6 wins, 3 losses, 12 pts)

The run home: Cowboys at Queensland Country Bank Stadium (W)

Verdict: The two-time premiers have been below their best this season, impacted by an injury to representative forward Caitlan Johnston-Green which has wiped her out of the competition since round 2. They’ve lost three games since, to the Dragons, Sharks and Broncos, but bounced back last week with a 46-10 win over the Titans led by inspirational fullback Tamika Upton, the game’s best player. That points differential should be enough to land then fourth spot on the ladder, but they need to win. The Cowboys have been a bogey team for them in the past, and they have enough strike to be dangerous to the Knights’ chances. Especially star half Kirra Dibb, the former Knight who has one of the best kicking games in the competition.

Abbi Church has been strong for the Eels. Picture: Jeremy Ng/Getty Images

5. EELS

Wins: 5, Losses: 3, Pts: 10, Pts differential: -10

Prediction: 5th (5 wins, 3 losses, 10 pts)

The run home: Roosters at CommBank Stadium (L)

Verdict: It’s been a mighty season for the Eels who have been a danger team through the competition led by stars Abbi Church, Rachael Pearson and Elsie Albert. They sealed their finals chances with a two-point win over Canberra in round 8, but to make the top four they need not only to beat the Roosters, but they need other results to go their way. The Knights’ points differential of 74 means creates two scenarios for the Eels. They either need to win and for the Knights to lose to the Cowboys in Townsville, or they need the Knights to keep it to a narrow win and to beat the Roosters by more than 84 points. Obviously, one is significantly more realistic than the other. Either way it’s been a successful season for the Eels who have managed to go from wooden spoon to finals contender despite a truckload of injuries.

Out of contention: Cowboys, Titans, Raiders, Dragons, Wests Tigers

Originally published as Run to the finals: The games that could flip NRLW on its head