Penalties, possession or position – what are the statistical areas that determine rugby league results

We’ve crunched the data from every regular season game of 2024, looking at 10 key statistics - and can now reveal those that had the biggest impact on the final result and those that didn’t.

What are the stats that really matter in the NRL?

At the end of the day, the only statistic that really matters in rugby league is the one shown on scoreboard at full-time.

That’s a statement that you can’t contest.

However, accepting it at face value also makes for a rather short and boring story, so let’s dig deeper.

Is rugby league a game of possession? Or is it one of position?

We all know that ‘wrestling is ruining the game’ – but will it ruin your team’s chances of winning? And how about the referees – did they really cost your team that game?

To answer these questions and more we have tracked how the winning team fared in ten key areas across all 203 regular season NRL games of 2024* in a bid to discern the stats that have the biggest say when it comes to winning in rugby league.

* NB the round six match between the Warriors and Sea Eagles finished in a draw after extra time and had been excluded.

RUN METRES

There’s a reason that props are the best paid forwards by position (see below) – they make the hard metres – and as you can see above, ‘Run Metres’ is arguably the most reliable measure of a team’s likelihood of winning. In 74% of 2024 regular season games the winning team also won the ‘run metres’ statistic. Further enhancing ‘run metres’ claim as a premier statistical category is the fact that seven of the teams that played finals finished in the top eight for average run metres per game. The outliers are the Warriors who finished third for average run metres but failed to finish the season in the top eight, and the Roosters who finished 11th for average run metres but finished inside the top four.

LINE BREAKS

If metres are king, then linebreaks are arguably the path to the throne because there’s no better way to make ground then busting a line with ball in-hand. This is another stat which bears a strong correlation with success with 68% of winning teams winning this area and seven of the eight finalists finishing in the top half of the league for linebreaks per game.

POSSESSION IS KEY

The more you hold the ball the more chances you have to score. Possession also gives your forwards a break from the defensive grind. In only 28% of games did the team that lost this stat go on to win the game in 2024.

COMPLETION RATE

Every coach loves their team to cherish the pill and now we know why. This winner of this stat went on to win the match 68% of the time in 2024 and so it profiles as arguably more important than ‘possession’ above. However, completion rate on its own can also be a poor measure of a team’s likelihood of success. In 2024 the Warriors topped the stat while the Titans ran them a close second. The Wahs finished the season in 13th place while the Gold Coast finished 14th. But before you go shoving this article in your conservative coach’s face, consider that the grand finalists Penrith and Storm finished a close third and fourth in this stat, with fellow top-eight finishers the Roosters and Knights not far behind, so clearly there’s value to be had in making sure you get to your kick.

TACKLE BREAKS

The winner of ‘tackle breaks’ had a slightly higher winning rate (69.5%) than linebreaks above, but it had a rather lower correlation with team success as only five of the eight finalists did well in the area while top eight teams the Cowboys (11th for TBs), Sea Eagles (14th for TBs) and Bulldogs (17th for TBs) all achieved overall success despite not excelling in this area.

KICK METRES

To paraphrase Monty Python, every metre is sacred, every metre is great, but if a metre is wasted Craig Bellamy won’t get quite so irate – so long as the metre in question was a kick metre that is. The winning team ‘lost’ the Kick Metre stat in over 43% of games last year and none of the top three teams (Storm, Panthers or Roosters) finished in the top half of the league for average kick metres per game. I have a theory why. Better teams have made more metres with ball in hand than the lesser teams. As a result when they get to their kick the better teams are placing shorter attacking kicks whereas teams with less effective running games are putting in long kicks to gain some ground.

ERRORS

Speaking of Craig Bellamy, it’s one of rugby league’s guilty pleasures to watch the Storm play waiting on an error and then hope that the cameras pan to the coaching box. Because, should that sequence of events come to pass, we the viewer will be gifted the sight of Bellamy smashing tables, kicking chairs and swearing like a sailor. But, maybe Craig should chill a little. Because while errors are never good, they are rarely fatal in rugby league. A team that loses, or ties, when it comes to total errors has an almost 50% chance of winning the match. And the three teams who committed the least errors in 2024 (Titans, Warriors and Dolphins) all failed to make the eight. Then again, Craig may have a point because the three teams who made the most errors per game (Broncos, Dragons and Eels) all failed to make the top eight too. Maybe there’s a sweet spot where teams make just enough errors to avoid giving their opponent a leg up but also play enough attacking, and risky, football to avoid playing it too safe.

PLAY THE BALL SPEED

This one surprised me as I really thought it was an area of the game that would have a more significant impact on a result. As my family – and neighbours – will attest, I am convinced that every team that plays my Roosters is ‘LAYING ALL OVER HIM’ and also that ‘THE WRESTLE IS RUINING THE GAME’. But, having learnt that in 112 of 203 games (or 55%) the winner of the match LOST the play the ball contest, perhaps it’s time I change my tune. Or at least tone it down a little.

PENALTIES

Speaking of yelling at the television I’ll admit that on the odd occasion I have sprayed the whistleblowers convinced that this call or that call cost my team. However, while there’s no doubt that a crucial penalty at a crucial time can impact the result the stats don’t lie. Teams have pretty much an equal chance of winning the match regardless of whether they win or lose the penalty count so I probably owe quite a few referees an apology. Five of the most penalised teams (Roosters, Sharks, Panthers, Bulldogs and Sea Eagles) finished in the top eight while none of the three referees pets (Titans, Dragons and Titans) managed to finish in the eight.

RUCK INFRINGEMENTS/SIX AGAINS

Remember the good old days when the Roosters gave away penalty after penalty and backed themselves to win anyway? I certainly do and I can’t help but feel that a number of teams are now abusing the six again system especially early in the set when the punishment is less severe. The other thing that really jumped out at me here was the surprisingly large number of games (22.7%) in which the count was tied. It may be a case of the referees squaring up, it may just be a coincidence – either way these stats suggest that winning or losing this stat is not going to decided the game either way.

Originally published as Penalties, possession or position – what are the statistical areas that determine rugby league results