NRL Run Home: Best, and worst, finish for every top eight side and the four contenders in finals contention

Four unlikely finals contenders have emerged following St George Illawarra’s round 25 loss to Cronulla, as the race for the eight heats up. See every contender’s best and worst ladder finish.

The race to the top four, top eight and the wooden spoon are still wide open with just two games of the regular season to go.

St George Illawarra’s loss to Cronulla has revived the finals hopes of the Broncos, Dolphins, Knights and even the Raiders – after the green machine shocked three-time premiers Penrith last weekend.

The Panthers, after starting Round 25 in second place, are now clinging onto fourth spot and Canterbury are knocking on Ivan Cleary’s door.

We’ve crunched the numbers and found the teams with a big advantage to finish the season, those who won’t be so lucky and the teams who might just sneak into the finals after a wild ride.

MELBOURNE STORM

Current position: 1st (42 points, 18 wins, 4 losses, 3 byes, +213 points differential)

Kdouh’s prediction: 1st (46pts, 20 wins, 4 losses)

Run home: Cowboys (w), Broncos (w)

Best finish: 1st

Worst finish: 1st

Verdict: Coach Craig Bellamy is resting players en masse for the trip to Townsville given the five-day turnaround into Thursday night clash against the Cowboys. But Bellamy could use the Broncos clash at Suncorp Stadium as a finals preparation so the Storm should be close to full-strength. Star winger Xavier Coates will return before the finals series. Bellamy’s men should be too strong for both the Cowboys and Broncos.

SYDNEY ROOSTERS

Current position: 2nd (36 points, 15 wins, 7 losses, 3 byes, +269pd)

Kdouh’s prediction: 2nd (40pts, 17 wins, 7 losses)

Run home: Raiders (w), Rabbitohs (w)

Best Finish: 2nd

Worst Finish: 5th

Verdict: Enforcer Jared Waerea-Hargreaves has been whacked with a three-game ban for another high-shot. Naufahu Whyte is an option on the bench with Spencer Leniu to start at prop while Waerea-Hargreaves is out. Joseph-Aukuso Suaalii has avoided a serious shoulder injury and should be available against Canberra. But Trent Robinson has options in the outside backs with Junior Pauga back from a knee injury through NSW Cup, while former Wallaby Mark Nawaqanitawase was impressive again, scoring another try in his second game in reserve grade. The motivation of a second-place finish will get the Roosters home against the Raiders and South Sydney. The Tricolours could slide as low as fifth if they lose both games, the Bulldogs beat the Sea Eagles and Cowboys and either Sharks or Penrith win at least one of their finals two games.

Angus Crichton has been a huge part of the Sydney Roosters’ success this year. Picture: NRL Photos

CRONULLA SHARKS

Current position: 3rd (36 points, 15 wins, 7 losses, 3 byes, +204pd)

Kdouh’s prediction: 4th (38pts, 16 wins, 8 losses)

Run home: Warriors (w), Sea Eagles (l)

Best Finish: 2nd

Worst Finish: 5th

Verdict: Halfback Nicho Hynes (leg) is in line to return after a seven week lay-off. Jesse Ramien will miss the Warriors clash but should be boosted by the return of winger Sione Katoa (concussion). After four-straight wins, Cronulla have their eye on a top two finish but could ultimately miss out on points differential to the Roosters. But their points differential is still strong and will help the Sharks ward off both Penrith and Canterbury if they finish on the same points. The Sea Eagles are always a tough task at Brookvale and that round 27 clash is still a banana peel for the Sharks. If the Sharks lose both games, the Bulldogs beat the Sea Eagles and Cowboys and Penrith win at least one of their finals two games, the Shire club finish as low as fifth

PENRITH PANTHERS

Current position: 4th (36 points, 15 wins, 7 losses 3 byes, +158pd)

Kdouh’s prediction: 3rd (40pts, 17 wins, 7 losses)

Run home: Rabbitohs (w), Titans (w)

Best finish: 2nd

Worst finish: 5th

Verdict: Penrith are clinging onto fourth spot after a shock loss to Canberra. A second-place finish is possible but coach Ivan Cleary will need both the Roosters and Sharks to lose at least one game.Penrith should be too good for a depleted Rabbitohs side and the Titans, even with halfback Nathan Cleary (shoulder) sidelined and fullback Dylan Edwards hampered by a knee injury. Penrith did, however, miss Cleary’s long-kicking game and game management against the Raiders and will need Jarome Luai to step up in the final two rounds. Hooker Mitch Kenny returns from suspension. If the unlikely were to happen and Penrith lose both games they could finish as low as fifth.

Penrith could finish outside the top four. Picture: Mark Nolan/Getty Images

CANTERBURY BULLDOGS

Current position: 5th (34 points, 14 wins, 8 losses, 3 byes, +146pd)

Kdouh’s prediction: 5th (38pts, 16 wins, 8 losses)

Run home: Sea Eagles (w), Cowboys (w)

Best finish: 2nd

Worst finish: 7th

Verdict: Canterbury have got the job done before without their inspirational skipper Stephen Crichton and will have to do it again on Friday against Manly. Coach Cameron Ciraldo is likely to shift Jacob Kiraz into the centres and call-up Jeral Skelton on the wing as cover. Lock Kurt Mann suffered a collarbone injury against the Warriors with Bailey Hayward coming into the starting side. Forward Josh Curran (shoulder) is also a chance to return this week. If they beat the Sea Eagles and Cowboys, and either Penrith or Sharks lose one game, a top four finish will likely come down to points differential. The Bulldogs will fancy their chances against Manly at home, where they are seven from eight wins at Accor Stadium.

The Bulldogs are knocking on the door of a top four finish. Picture: Phil Walter/Getty Images

NORTH QUEENSLAND COWBOYS

Current position: 6th (32pts, 13 wins, 9 losses, 3 byes, +43pd)

Kdouh’s prediction: 7th (32pts, 13 wins, 11 losses)

Run home: Storm (l), Bulldogs (l)

Best finish: 5th

Worst finish: 7th

Verdict: The Cowboys have won both games coming off the bye this year but the Storm are just as good against a refreshed outfit too, winning all three games against sides coming off the bye. But if North Queensland can overcome a depleted Melbourne – and Manly beat Canterbury – it will set up a final round showdown against the Bulldogs that could determine who clinches fifth place on the ladder. Forwards Jason Taumalolo (cheekbone) and Jeremiah Nanai (concussion) should be back this week.

MANLY SEA EAGLES

Current position: 7th (31 points, 12 wins, 9 losses, 1 draw, 3 byes, +121pd)

Kdouh’s prediction: 6th (33pts, 13 wins, 10 losses, 1 draw)

Run home: Bulldogs (l), Sharks (w)

Best finish: 5th

Worst finish: 8th

Verdict: Manly can still finish as high as fifth on the ladder but will need to win both and need Canterbury drop their two final matches - as well as hope the Cowboys drop a clash, too. Brookvale Oval will host a home elimination final if the Sea Eagles win one game and the Cowboys lose both or if they jag wins and the Cowboys lose one match. Corey Waddell copped a two-match ban for a high shot and will miss the rest of the regular season, centre Tommy Talau is a chance of returning from a pectoral injury against the Bulldogs. The Sharks are flying but Manly will go into the final round filled with confidence at the home ground advantage at 4 Pines Park. If they lose both and the Dragons win both games, Manly could finish eighth.

Manly’s top four hopes ended in round 25. Picture: Jason McCawley/Getty Images

ST GEORGE ILLAWARRA DRAGONS

Current position: 8th (28 points, 11 wins, 11 losses, 3 byes, -120pd)

Kdouh’s prediction: 9th (30pts, 13 wins, 12 losses)

Run home: Eels (w), Raiders (l)

Best finish: 7th

Worst finish: Miss the top eight, 11th

Verdict: The Dragons couldn’t get the job done against Cronulla and the heavy defeat could damage the confidence of Shane Flanagan’s side. The Dragons need to win in two dangerous games, first against an Eels side that wants to avoid a wooden spoon and a Canberra team that could be playing for a finals berth. A loss against either will leave their destiny in the hands of the four teams below them on the ladder given their points difference is worse than the Broncos, Dolphins and Knights. If they win both they could finish as high as seventh.

BRISBANE BRONCOS

Current position: 9th (26 points, 10 wins, 12 losses, 3 byes, 2dp)

Kdouh’s prediction: 10th (28pts, 11 wins, 13 losses)

Run home: Dolphins (w), Storm (l)

Best finish: 8th

Worst finish: Miss the top eight, 11th

Verdict: Got the job done against Parramatta keeping their finals hopes alive. The Broncos are primed to make the most of the Dolphins’ mid-season fade out but the Storm could derail Kevin Walters’ hopes of a top eight berth if Craig Bellamy names a full-strength side in the final round. Will sneak into the eight if they win both and the Dragons lose to the Eels or Canberra. A top eight spot is still possible on the back of just one win but the Broncos will need the Dragons to lose both and Raiders to lose the Roosters, and the sides below them on the current ladder – Dolphins, Knights, Raiders – to win only one of their final two matches.

Reece Walsh (hand) and Payne Haas (foot) could be back in round 27.

Brisbane’s finals hopes are alive and kicking. Picture: Matt Roberts/Getty Images

DOLPHINS

Current position: 10th (26 points, 10 wins, 12 losses, 3 byes, -27pd)

Kdouh’s prediction: 12th (26pts, 10 wins, 14 losses)

Run home: Broncos (l), Knights (l)

Best finish: 8th

Worst finish: Miss the top eight, 12th

Verdict: After two straight losses the Dolphins are left with a must win clash against the Broncos in this week’s Battle of Brisbane showdown. Even then, Wayne Bennett’s men will have to beat the Knights in round 27 and hope the Dragons only win one more game if they are to steal the final spot in the top eight. A loss against Brisbane will leave the Dolphins relying on other results, like the Dragons losing both games, Canberra going down to the Roosters and Melbourne beating the Broncos. Hooker Jeremy Marshall King (foot) is in line to return this week but Kodi Nikorima (head knock) and Jesse Bromwich (head knock) are in doubt.

NEWCASTLE KNIGHTS

Current position: 11th (26 points, 10 wins, 12 losses, 3 byes, -70pd)

Kdouh’s prediction: 8th (30pts, 12 wins, 12 losses)

Run home: Titans (w), Dolphins (w)

Best finish: 8th

Worst finish: Miss the top eight, 12th

Verdict: With two very winnable games against the Titans and Dolphins, the Knights will rate their finals chances. But even with two wins under their belt, the Knights will need the Broncos to lose in the final round given their points differential is worse than Brisbane. Star centre Bradman Best (hamstring) could be back this week.

CANBERRA RAIDERS

Current position: 12th (26 points, 10 wins, 12 losses, 3 byes, -131pd)

Kdouh’s prediction: 11th (28pts, 11 wins, 13 losses)

Run home: Roosters (l), Dragons (w)

Best finish: 8th

Worst finish: Miss the top eight, 12th

Verdict: Just when it looked like Canberra had put the cue in the rack, they sprung a shock victory against premiers Penrith. Ricky Stuart’s men must win both games, starting with a very tough prospect against the Roosters. But if the Dolphins and the Knights win in round 26 Canberra’s chances are dealt a massive blow, regardless of the result against the Roosters, because those two sides play each other in the final round and the Raiders points differential is weaker than both.

The Raiders’ slim finals hopes remain. Picture: Mark Nolan/Getty Images

GOLD COAST TITANS

Current position: 13th (22 points, 8 wins, 14 losses, 3 byes, -140 pd)

Kdouh’s prediction: 14th (22pts, 8 wins, 16 losses)

Run home: Knights (l), Panthers (l)

Verdict: Very few sides have been as hot and cold as the Titans this season. The likes of Keano Kini and Jayden Campbell can cause some headaches in the final two rounds for their opposition. Des Hasler will want his side to finish on a high with at least one win, which is more likely to come against the Knights than Penrith.

WARRIORS

Current position: 14th (21 points, 8 wins, 14 losses, 1 draw, 2 byes, -64pd)

Kdouh’s prediction: 13th (23pts, 8 wins, 15 losses, 1 draw)

Run home: Sharks (l), bye

Verdict: Shaun Johnson’s emotional farewell wasn’t enough to spur the Warriors to a win in Auckland against Canterbury. The Warriors get one more shot to send off Johnson as a winner but his former side the Sharks are standing in the way and a win is unlikely to happen.

The Warriors have had a season to forget. Picture: Hannah Peters/Getty Images

SOUTH SYDNEY RABBITOHS

Current position: 15th (20 points, 7 wins, 15 losses, 3 byes, -158pd)

Kdouh’s prediction: 15th (20pts, 7 wins, 17 losses)

Run home: Panthers (l), Roosters (l)

Verdict: On top of missing Latrell Mitchell to the white substance scandal, South Sydney are facing the prospect of being without skipper Cameron Murray for the final two games of the season. He is fighting the grading of his high tackle charge on Tuesday night in the hope of getting a two-match ban downgraded to a fine. The Rabbitohs don’t have the cattle to trouble either Penrith or the Roosters. Cody Walker will provide a boost after he missed the Knights loss due to concussion.

PARRAMATTA EELS

Current position: 16th (16 points, 5 wins, 17 losses, 3 byes, -193pd)

Kdouh’s prediction: 17th (16pts, 5 wins, 19 losses)

Run home: Dragons (l), Tigers (l)

Best finish: 16th

Worst finish: 17th

Verdict: If the Eels can’t beat the Dragons this week, Trent Barrett’s men are left with no option than to beat the Tigers in round 27’s Spoonbowl showdown, which will help Parramatta avoid last place on points differential.

WESTS TIGERS

Current position: 17th (16 points, 6 wins, 17 losses, 2 byes, -253 pd)

Kdouh’s prediction: 16th (20pts, 7 wins, 18 losses)

Run home: bye, Eels (w)

Best Finish: 16th

Worst Finish: 17th

Verdict: Have the bye this week before they start preparing for Parramatta in the final round.

A win in Spoonbowl is about more than just about pride for the Tigers, it will springboard Benji Marshall’s rebuild into a new pre-season filled with promise. After knocking off the Sea Eagles in a shock win, the Tigers will be confident of getting one over western Sydney rivals Parramatta in front of what is tipped to be a sellout crowd at Campbelltown Stadium.

Originally published as NRL Run Home: Best, and worst, finish for every top eight side and the four contenders in finals contention