Matty Johns’ ultimate NRL grand final prediction: Storm’s 25-minute window, Penrith’s keys to glory

A 25-minute window will be crucial to Melbourne’s success, while the Panthers must be wary of a new Storm tactic. Matty Johns reveals where the grand final will be won and lost.

We’re down to the two best teams, filled with superstar talent and led by two great coaches.

Sunday’s NRL grand final between Melbourne and Penrith is destined to come down to a moment, a play or a star player.

MATTY JOHNS puts himself in the coaches box of Craig Bellamy and Ivan Cleary to reveal where the game will be won or lost.

Storm vs Panthers. Matty Johns reveals where the grand final will be won and lost.

IF I’M CRAIG BELLAMY

WHY I’M CONFIDENT

In my opinion, our key individuals are in better form and, across the board, we are fresher.

Penrith’s preliminary final win over Cronulla last Saturday night was a far tougher contest than our victory over the Sydney Roosters. This will take more petrol out of their tanks.

We can beat Penrith at their own game; fast tempo, centralise our possession and fatigue Panthers starting big men James Fisher-Harris and Moses Leota early.

When these two key men go to the interchange, it provides us with a 25-minute window where we can accelerate the tempo and win the match.

Melbourne must capitalise while Moses Leota (left) and James Fisher-Harris (right) come off the field. Picture: Adam Yip

THE MAJOR THREAT

It’s obviously Nathan Cleary, but his performance isn’t single-handed. Penrith do a lot of things right to put Cleary in a position to dominate.

They defend aggressively, put a dent in you on early tackles on kick receptions and centralise their yardage game. All of these things feed into winning field position, and giving Cleary opportunity for attacking kicks.

These simple things bring Cleary to the fore, so you need to disrupt the formula. Force errors, nullify early yardage, do this and you lesson Cleary’s impact.

STOP DYLAN EDWARDS

Stop isn’t quite the right word, reduce his impact is more accurate.

I’d be surprised if Dylan Edwards hasn’t caused the most missed tackles and tackle busts this season. His stepping, bobbing, weaving and spinning burns out middle defenders. When the first man misses, it forces others to work, and if the next man misses, it compounds and takes a physical toll quickly.

Our goal is to surrender no more than three missed tackles on Edwards during the entire contest. He’s their best yardage player. If we can minimise his run metres, we are well on our way to victory.

Shutting down Dylan Edwards, not Nathan Cleary, is the key to victory for Melbourne. Picture: Getty Images

WHY WE WIN

I just don’t think the Penrith forwards have enough petrol left in the tank to stop our spine.

We don’t need to totally dominate yardage, just hold our own. Make consistent metres and produce fast play-the-balls, then our creative men will do the rest.

They will have enormous problems handling us if we can get Harry Grant out of dummy half regularly. Cleary’s dominance will be dramatically reduced playing behind tired forwards.

IF I’M IVAN CLEARY

WHY I’M CONFIDENT

A lot has been spoken of the threat and form of the Storm spine, which has taken focus off our creative players.

Dylan Edwards is the most consistent big game performer I’ve seen. At worst, he’s a 7.5 out of 10. At his best, he’s a 10. You don’t go broke backing Edwards for man-of-the-match awards in big games.

Isaah Yeo is close to the game’s most intelligent footballer. His decision-making through the centre field is a cornerstone of our success.

Jarome Luai is in the form of his career. His Origin success has given him a major boost in self belief. Nathan Cleary is the game’s best player and most reliable when the pressure is at its maximum.

In gambling terms, Cleary’s more comfortable in the high rollers room than he is on the pokies.

And Mitch Kenny is concrete tough.

Nathan Cleary is the best player in the game and thrives under pressure. Picture: Getty Images

THE MAJOR THREAT

It’s Harry Grant, Cameron Munster and Jahrome Hughes attacking our middle off fast play the balls. Once they start attacking through the centre, they won’t let up.

There is also a variation they are now using, which is recognising when the defence is a little tight and tipping the ball off to Ryan Papenhuyzen on a 45-degree sprint. His speed disrupts the defence formation and, last week, they carved up the Roosters’ left side with this play.

DEFENDING HUGHES AND MUNSTER

When these players call the football, we need to hold our nerve and our defensive formation. Don’t sit on our heels trying to buy time in decision-making. Hold form, move up aggressively and if they take two steps toward our defensive line, we close in, shutting the space and encouraging them to pass.

Better to present an opportunity on the edge, then one in tight around the ruck.

Fowards win big games and the loss of Nelson Asofa-Solomona is massive for Melbourne. Picture: NRL Imagery

WHY WE WILL WIN

Forwards win big matches and we have a stronger, more experience pack, particularly with Nelson Asofa-Solomona sitting in the stands.

Our middle men may not be as fresh as Melbourne’s, but our outside backs will alleviate that by dominating yardage and allowing our forwards to retain energy for the defensive task.

Our squad has played so much together that we can attack at high speed and produce few errors, due to our familiarity. And no player can dictate and dominate purely through kicking like Cleary.

Few errors, masterful kicking, aggressive, intelligent defence and we can’t be beaten.

Originally published as Matty Johns’ ultimate NRL grand final prediction: Storm’s 25-minute window, Penrith’s keys to glory