Matty Johns: Every 2022 NRL premiership contender’s real odds
It’s the home straight and the premiership contenders are emerging, including the team MATTY JOHNS says poses the biggest risk to Penrith’s title defence.
NRL
Don't miss out on the headlines from NRL. Followed categories will be added to My News.
There’s only one team who can stop Penrith going back-to-back, and that’s the Panthers themselves.
They’re a better team than last year, the individuals have improved, some such as Viliame Kikau have improved dramatically as far as consistency.
Isaah Yeo continues to develop as far as tactical IQ, and Nathan Cleary, along with Cameron
Munster, is the best player in the comp.
This season they’ve blown teams completely off the park, but on other occasions beaten top
quality sides when they’ve been less than their mighty selves.
At the moment the bookmakers are offering around $2 to go back-to-back, that’s
generous. I’d have them at $1.70.
Only a spate of injuries or an off-field implosion can see them come back to the field and allow a team with momentum and X factor, like the Bunnies, to come rushing home and pip them at the post
Who is their most serious challenger?
It’s very hard to work out when you lay out position on the ladder, form, injuries, experience and superstars.
Stream every game of every round of the 2022 NRL Telstra Premiership Season Live & Ad-Break Free During Play on Kayo. New to Kayo? Start your free trial now >
STORM
They’ve hit the kind of flat spot we rarely see from Melbourne, with their defensive application as bad as I’ve seen through the Bellamy years.
They are struggling to control the tempo of the game and even struggling to control their own attacking tempo. In last week’s loss to Canberra they started at a furious speed but then couldn’t find the breaks to compose themselves.
The loss of Ryan Papenhuyzen is a significant blow, injury wise they’re on a knife’s edge.
They’ll refocus and recalibrate, but enough to threaten Penrith?
MATTY’S TITLE ODDS $7.50*
SHARKS
A really well balanced team who have won six of their last seven.
After their win over North Queensland, the Cowboys’ Scott Drinkwater described them as a side who are very difficult to attack against, an essential ingredient in winning a title.
Their pack’s strong, and the backline has so many aspects to it, creativity, speed, power and metreage.
Their playmakers are having great seasons and the bigger the game the more Dale Finucane’s leadership will come to the fore.
My knock on them is that when they’re down a little on energy and intensity, their performance drops significantly, but a lot of upside.
MATTY'S TITLE ODDS $7.50
ROOSTERS
The bookies had them at around $26 going into last week’s win, that was way overs and they still are great value. Okay, first things first, they need to break into the eight, but if they do, they are very capable of flashing home.
Look at the quality of their roster and the quality of their last performances.
They are finding their formula.
Joseph Manu at six has been a revelation, he and Tedesco are terrorising centrefield defences in combination.
Luke Keary has been named at five-eighth in his return and how the Roosters integrate him into the team without lessening Manu’s impact could define their season.
A serious concern is like last year, an injury crisis. They can’t afford any more.
MATTY'S TITLE ODDS $14
RABBITOHS
Maybe my opinion of the Roosters’ and Souths’ title chances are inflated but it’s on the back of star quality and potential.
Sure, potential gets coaches sacked and sends punters broke, but the return of Latrell Mitchell, his form, his condition and his mindset, has lifted my opinion of Souths’ chances enormously.
Throughout rugby league history we’ve seen individuals go on amazing runs of form which carry a team to, or close to a title. Two examples are Ellery Hanley with the Tigers in 1989 and Jarryd Hayne with Parramatta in 2009.
If Latrell can stay on the field, watch the Bunnies continue to fly.
MATTY'S TITLE ODDS $12
COWBOYS
They are the team which have shocked me the most, I had them bottom four.
Todd Payten has them super fit, playing with their own brand of football, not a watered down
version of someone else’s.
Chad Townsend has proved a masterful buy, Tom Deardon has realised his potential and his Origin performance will deliver another heavy dose of confidence.
On top of that, Jason Taumalolo’s returned to his former self and some of the game’s best young talent have emerged.
Jeremiah Nanai is a phenomenal talent, he did things at the most crucial moments of Origin III, that very few players can do, let alone a 19 year-old.
MATTY'S TITLE ODDS $10
EELS
Cowboys and Broncos are far more consistent than the likes of Souths and the Roosters but the two Sydney clubs make up for it in star power.
Here’s another of those, Parramatta. When in the right headspace the Eels have shown they can beat them all, but impossible to follow.
I’m sorry, they were impossible to follow, now their form is very consistent. For the most part this season a very good performance is followed by a stinker.
They’ve just had back to back wins, but over the Tigers and Warriors.
Regardless of their talent I need to see a month of strong showings to even consider them title contenders.
MATTY'S TITLE ODDS $16
BRONCOS
What a transformation, amazing what an experienced number 7 does for the confidence of a team and its players.
Adam Reynolds has enhanced his reputation as a playmaker enormously with how he rejuvenated this once powerhouse club, suddenly the Broncos look like a great place to be.
And what a crop of youngsters!
They aren’t serious contenders just yet, my gut feel is they’ll reach week two of the Finals, and then be in line for a tilt at the title this time next season.
MATTY'S TITLE ODDS $21
SEA EAGLES
Manly’s got a decent run home which will put a lot of pressure on the Roosters to make the eight.
Manly’s pack is strong, Daly Cherry-Evans looks set for a big end of season, and Kieran Foran is enjoying his best year in almost a decade. Put Tom Trbojevic back in this team and they are top four.
Manly will give some cheek, second week of the finals would be a fine season.
MATTY'S TITLE ODDS $26
DRAGONS
They’ve had little stretches of good form but never really escaped mediocrity.
Their form continues to dip
MATTY'S TITLE ODDS $201
RAIDERS
After a slow start they had a patch of good football mid-year, but then fell into inconsistency. Last week’s great win over the Storm once again showed what they’re capable of.
What could’ve been.
MATTY'S TITLE ODDS $81
*Matty Johns’ betting market odds
REBUILT MITCHELL CAN CARRY RABBITOHS TO GLORY
The Souths Sydney Rabbitohs haven’t spent money more wisely than sending Latrell Mitchell to Philadelphia’s world-renowned sports rehabilitation guru, Bill Knowles.
For Mitchell it’s beginning to look like a career-defining decision.
I watched the documentary this week on Mitchell’s journey to the United States and the training methods Knowles uses on the Bunnies champion, and it’s astounding.
Knowles doesn’t just rehab Mitchell’s hamstring, he redesigns his movement, starting with changing the way he walks, his ankle flexion, his body position, his hip movement.
He uses a hula hoop to strengthen Mitchell’s core and then moves into more sophisticated exercises. He makes Mitchell conscious of how his body works and how to best use it.
But day by day you not only see the transformation in how Mitchell moves, you see his mindset transform.
On Day one Mitchell turns up in a light, jovial mood, laughing, enjoying all the new surrounds.
Knowles himself is initially relaxed, easy going, welcoming.
As the intensity of each session increases, Knowles becomes tougher, he’s more blunt in explaining what he wants, he corrects Mitchell in a far more direct manner, he compliments less.
And Mitchell responds.
The more Knowles challenges, the more Mitchell focuses.
It’s clear Knowles isn’t just reconditioning the body, he’s reconditioning the mind.
Then the moment comes. It’s a comment which shows the penny has dropped. Through having a greater understanding of his body, Mitchell has a greater understanding of his game.
“I used to think, yep I’m powerful, sweet. Now I’m thinking I’ve got to slow down a bit and actually think about what I’m doing….”
On his return to the playing field you’ve seen him put that straight into practise.
When the Bunnies sent Mitchell to Knowles they’d hoped he’d return and be able to get back to his best. He’s better … and it’s only three games into his return.
In his first game back against the Knights, Mitchell’s pulse rarely got over 60 beats per minute, he was so relaxed.
That comment, “Now I’m thinking I’ve got to slow down a bit and actually think about what I’m doing.”
You see this is it, when we hear, “slow down,” we think physically, take the foot off the gas.
Mitchell’s moving faster and better than ever, he’s slowed down his thinking.
Last week Mitchell was catching those towering Matt Burton bombs like his arms were a velvet basket. When he ball plays, his touch on the ball is even more silky, his pass selection perfect as a result of giving himself more time.
But then he can flick the switch, as we saw with his powerful surges over the top of Burton.
The manner in which he took the challenge to Burton indicated that Mitchell probably believed, even if he had made himself available for Origin III, they would’ve gone with Burton.
Mitchell’s crucial try in the 60th minute of that game showed all the weapons in his arsenal. After bumping off several defenders, he glided over the ground until Josh Addo-Carr stood between him and the try line.
NRL 2022: Latrell Mitchell earns lavish praise from US trainer Bill Knowles, eyes return for Blues
Mitchell’s fend into Addo-Carr’s chest looked like a gentle push, only Addo-Carr being sent hurtling backwards made you realise the power of the push.
Rugby league has many examples of individuals, seemingly putting their team on their shoulders and carrying them to, or close to, a title.
Ellery Hanley with the Balmain Tigers in 1988. Terry Lamb with the Bulldogs in 1995. Jarryd Hayne with the Eels in 2009. Tom Trbojevic last season with Manly.
A month ago there were serious doubts whether Souths were going to play finals football, but Mitchell has completely changed that.
In sport the best players excel week in, week out. But a very rare few have the ability to make all those around them better.
On return, Mitchell is already doing that.
More Coverage
Originally published as Matty Johns: Every 2022 NRL premiership contender’s real odds
Join the conversation
The VIP lunch that could deliver a new Blues captain
At a special lunch on Friday, Ricky Stuart pulled up a seat next to Nathan Cleary. What happened next could change the course of history for NSW, writes DAVID RICCIO.
Read more
The South Sydney contract call that infuriated Matt Lodge
Matt Lodge was confident that he was headed to South Sydney for a Wayne Bennett reunion, but one brief call blew up that plan and forced the NRL enforcer to make a surprising career pivot.
Read more