Predictions: The run home across the remaining NTFL 2023-24 rounds
There’s just five rounds remaining in the 2023-24 NTFL season, and with the top sides so close, the top spots are anyone’s guess. We look at the run home and predict who will finish, where.
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The NTFL Men’s Premier League is quickly nearing finals, and with the closest top five in years there’s plenty of questions to be answered across the remaining rounds.
Save for a massive turnaround in fortunes the final five seems to be set, however with the double chance only going to the top three there’s still plenty to play for.
Nightcliff currently sit on top of the table on 32 competition points, but with Waratah, St Mary’s, Southern Districts and PINT the top three is anyone’s game.
Any match between these sides are genuine 50-50 calls at this stage making for an incredibly interesting run in, and even more interesting finals series.
But there will be some interest outside of the top sides with battles to determine percentage, and a surprising face-off for sixth position.
NIGHTCLIFF TIGERS
Tiwi (win), bye, PINT (win), Districts (win), Waratah (loss)
Current leaders Nightcliff have perhaps the hardest run in of any side with three top five opponents and a tricky face-off against Tiwi.
Add in a bye, where points are not up for grabs, and the Tigers’ grasp on the top spot becomes a little shaky.
However, this is a side that has performed against each of these opponents, and arguably have the best defence in the league.
Districts and Waratah are both 50-50 encounters, as is any game between the top five, so them tracking similar to last time is a fair shout.
On the best defence that will come down to skipper Ryan Nyhuis, who has been in fine form since his early season injury, alongside the likes of Nathan Brown, Lewis Rinaldi and Mitch Norton.
Further forward look out for dual Nichols Medallist Brodie Filo, Cooper Dahms and the side’s top goal scorer Brett Kennedy.
Expected: Top three (percentage decides)12-4
WARATAH
Bye, Wanderers (win), St Mary’s (win), Buffaloes (win), Nightcliff (win)
They’ve been on the wrong side of close games here and there, namely against PINT and Districts, but the reigning premiers are still the benchmark side.
They went into the mid-season break on top and have the talent to go all the way again particularly with what may come as a well-timed bye.
The bye will push them out of the top three spots temporarily, but it means their top players won’t be playing three games in a week with the rep game in store.
From there Wanderers and Buffaloes are two games coach Ryan Ayres will have already had in mind as wins, with just St Mary’s and Nightcliff to worry about.
Those sides make up the rest of the current top three, and though we have Waratah beating both these are genuine toss ups.
Waratah usually come good at this end of the season and will have Saints marked as a big occasions as part of the brewing rivalry, while Nightcliff is a side Tahs can take on at the defensive end.
Jayden Magro currently leads the goal kicking and will be looking for bags against the ‘easier’ opposition, with Dwyane Kerinauia and Anthony Munkara the x-factor players up front.
However, it’s the midfield where Tahs truly shine with Scott Carlin, Brodie Carroll, Lachlan Cassidy and Arnold Kirby among others all having massive seasons.
Expected: Top three (percentage decides)12-4
ST MARY’S
Wanderers (win), PINT (win), Waratah (loss), Palmerston (win), Buffaloes (win)
Unlike most of their top five opponents St Mary’s have already waited out their bye and have a strong run in ahead of finals.
Games against Wanderers, Palmerston and Buffaloes should net 12 points for the side which has this season’s longest win streak at eight games.
Then there’s the matter of PINT and Waratah, two tough matches which could either way and in the past two years generally have.
Waratah have the grinding game which can get the better of Saints on occasion including last year’s finals series, and with the pointy end of the season now here that will come into play.
And while PINT are solid they aren’t quite the big scoring side some of their rivals are, and Saints at full force can cause some real damage, particularly in the wet weather which is expected.
Skipper Dylan Landt will bring his A-game alongside Nate Paredes and Joel Garner who are great in the midfield, while Jackson Calder is still in the race for a third consecutive top goal scorer medal.
Expected: Top three (percentage decides)12-4
SOUTHERN DISTRICTS
PINT (win), Palmerston (win), Tiwi (win), Nightcliff (loss), bye
Districts won’t mind their run in towards finals one bit, getting one of their trickier games, PINT, at home and then two should-win matches against Palmerston and Tiwi.
Getting the Greenants out at Norbuilt Oval is crucial with the Crocs hard to beat on their home deck for any side, and it should tip the match in their favour.
Their only other big match is Nightcliff, which comes at Nightcliff Oval, where the Tigers will be hoping to perform in the lead in to finals.
Nightcliff haven’t always been the best side at home, losing to both PINT and Districts there, but they’ve looked a more dangerous beast late in the season.
In fairness, most sides in this top five, including Districts, have.
Districts are a side who once they get scoring find it hard to stop, with Jarrod Brander, Jonathon Ross and Jed Anderson all able to pile on the hurt when needed.
Anderson is one of the leading lights of the season, but he’s been heavily complimented in the midfield by Beau Schwarze, Matthew Johnston and dual rucks Wyatt Ryan and Matt Dennis.
Expected: Fourth - 11-5
PINT
Districts (loss), St Mary’s (loss), Nightcliff (loss), Tiwi (win), Palmerston (win)
If anything these tallies are a little unfair to PINT, who will play their first ever finals campaign this season.
The Greenants are the only top five side to have had a genuine slump this season, and looked as if they had played themselves out of finals as of Round 7.
However, they’ve done the hard yards since and have proven with wins against Buffaloes and Waratah they belong at this level.
Tiwi and Palmerston is a good run in to finals giving the side a good warm up and plenty of momentum leading into the knock outs.
Steven Motlop is key, playing in the back line, and brings his engine and experience to the fold in a defensive group including Brad Ryan.
Connor McDonald and Elliott Chalmers have been standouts in the midfield, and if the side can activate Matt Ryan and Liam Holt Fitz they will be on to something.
However, PINT are not a side with experience of late season pushes, and are not quite the high scoring side their major opponents can be.
But they’ve proved everyone wrong so many times in the past two years, why not do it again? They’ve got the talent after all.
Expected: Fifth - 10-6
TIWI BOMBERS
Nightcliff (loss), Buffaloes (win), Districts (loss), PINT (loss), Wanderers (win)
The Bombers won’t have to worry about any byes heading into the final few rounds instead getting to carry some momentum through the remaining rounds.
Tiwi have already outperformed many expectations with four wins to their name and upcoming fixtures against Buffaloes and Wanderers could lift that to six.
That’s a far cry from the side which won just once in three seasons, and is a sign of the Bombers being a potential force again in coming seasons.
The Bombers can get the better of Buffaloes and in doing so will jump to sixth by seasons end based on current percentage.
However, to complete that goal they will need to ensure matches against Nightcliff, Districts and PINT are not blowouts.
Expected: Sixth to Seventh 6-9
DARWIN BUFFALOES
Palmerston (win), Tiwi (loss), Wanderers (win), Waratah (loss), St Mary’s (loss)
Somewhere along the way it all went wrong for the Darwin Buffaloes this season, and it’s hard to pin point when that happened.
The Double Blues were pushing for finals footy early in the season and with big ins such as Baxter Mensch, Rhys Mathieson, Blake Coleman and Mitch Robinson it looked likely.
Then it didn’t. They’ve got a run in to make up for it and despite being three wins behind the rest of the competition there’s always a faint spark of fortunes being reversed.
In reality, Palmerston and Wanderers are their big shots at a win, then Tiwi is a topsy turvy scenario which we’ve the Bombers’ way based on recent form.
Waratah and St Mary’s are danger games for the Buffs, and the Double Blues need to ensure there is no repeat of their Districts slip against these sides.
Expected: Sixth to Seventh 6-9
WANDERERS
St Mary’s (loss), Waratah (loss), Buffaloes (loss), bye, Tiwi (loss)
It’s a rough run in for the Muk Muks who first have to take on two sides looking for big wins to further their goals of a doubles chance.
Then there are matches against Buffaloes, who have fallen back into the pack, and a newly rejuvenated Tiwi Bombers who just want to keep growing.
For the Eagles these are better prospects than the former matches, but they are still not games that will fall into their favour.
The Bombers are a quicker side and will be wanting a shootout, and the Buffaloes will be wanting to secure sixth.
PALMERSTON MAGPIES
Buffaloes (loss), Districts (loss), bye, St Mary’s (loss), PINT (loss)
Save a minor miracle Palmerston will receive the wooden spoon for the first time in four seasons, and more than likely go the remainder of the season without a win.
Buffaloes in Round 14 are their only real chance of breaking the winless run, considering recent performances.
Last time the sides met it was a close encounter save a massive opening to the third quarter from Buffaloes, if Palmerston can avoid that they could grab a rare win.
Otherwise from the remaining games it’s hard to see what will go their way, with all three sides in the hunt for percentage.
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