Ray Thomas’s Rosehill Inside Mail for Saturday: Why punters must be wary of these David Payne-trained roughies

One of his three city winners this season was a $41 longshot … and David Payne is poised to do it again at Rosehill on Saturday. Get Ray Thomas’ best bets and quaddie picks for the 10-race card.

The maestro David Payne is trying to mastermind a monumental feature race double with two outsiders, Rag Queen and Navajo Peak, at Rosehill Gardens on Saturday.

Payne has faith in the emerging staying ability of Rag Queen, the only filly in the field for the Group 3 $500,000 Gloaming Stakes (1800m), and rated a $41 chance.

Navajo Peak has been struggling to find his best form this year but Payne believes there are encouraging signs from the six-year-old gelding who is at $34 for the Group 2 $2 million Hill Stakes (1900m).

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The champion trainer only has a small team in work at his Rosehill stable base these days but retains a knack of producing long-shot winners.

Payne’s three Sydney winners this season have been Shohisha at $13, Fox Fighter at $41 and last week with State Of America at $10.

Rag Queen seems to have the task ahead of her in the Gloaming as the last filly to win the race was Constant Flight in 1993 – although few fillies have contested the race in the modern era.

“I feel she is looking for this trip now,’’ said Payne after Rag Queen’s last start effort when she was doing her best work on the line when sixth to Watch My Girl at the Warwick Farm midweeks.

“This is a test for her to see if I set her for the (VRC) Oaks so she has to perform well.

“But I do like the filly. She is by D’Argento who won a Rosehill Guineas and was a very good horse, and she should get over ground.’’

Trainer David Payne. Picture: Jeremy Ng / Getty Images

Navajo Peak won the Group 2 Chelmsford Stakes at weight-for-age last year but has not managed to even place in eight starts since.

Payne said Navajo Peak “wasn’t himself” during the autumn but after a good spell the gelding seemed to have regained his enthusiasm for racing.

Navajo Peak indicated as much when resuming in the 7 Stakes and although he ran sixth, he was just over three lengths behind the outstanding mare Fangirl.

“When you finish that close to Fangirl, it’s a very good run,’’ Payne said.

“The horse looks a picture, I feel he is back to the form that won him the Chelmsford last year, and he will be competitive.’’

• EXPERT TIPS: James Molony’s race-by-race tips, analysis for Rosehill on Saturday

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ROSEHILL BIG BETS, MARKET MOVERS
Race 1: Alabama State $4.60-$3.10, Apollo Mission $11-$9
Race 2: Hulu $8-$6.50, Egyptologist $15-$9
Race 3: Medatsu $6-$5.50
Race 4: Swiftfalcon $2.80-$2.60 with big bets of $6000 at $2.70 and $5000 at $2.70, Henlein $3.60-$3.50, Tenbury Wells $6-$5.50
Race 5: Spirit Of Wealth $6-$3.70 including a bet of $2285 at $4.80, Gatsbys $6-$5.50
Race 6: Snack Bar $6-$4.60, More Territories $8-$6, King Of Roseau $15-$9, Mayne $11-$9
Race 7: Kovalica $4.60-$4.40 with a bet of $1500 e/w at $4.50/$1.70, Golden Path $8-$5.50
Race 8: Gringotts $4.60-$3.90 with a bet of $2000 at $4
Race 9: Peace Treaty $15-$6
Race 10: Pharari $1.90-$2-$1.95, Dollar Magic $15-$9.50, Kreon $26-$11

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EARLY QUADDIE
Race 3: 6,8,9
Race 4: 1,2,5
Race 5: 1,2,4,11
Race 6: 2,5,6,12

QUADDIE
Race 7: 1,2,4,6
Race 8: 9,10,11,16
Race 9: 2,3,4,9
Race 10: 9,10,13

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PRICE CHECK
SWIFTFALCON (race 4) is on the quick back-up after his win in the Dulcify Stakes last week and if money talks, then the big bets on the boom three-year-old to win the Gloaming Stakes speaks volumes. TAB Fixed Odds has taken bets on Swiftfalcon of $6000 at $2.70 and $5000 at $2.70.

🦅 Swiftfalcon flies and wins the Listed Dulcify at Randwick for Team @HawkesRacing!@aus_turf_clubpic.twitter.com/FXosYtX96N

— SKY Racing (@SkyRacingAU) October 5, 2024

• MARKET MOVERS: Two Rosehill roughies well backed

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TRIAL POINTERS
SWITZERLAND (race 5) disappointed first-up in the Run To The Rose but he has been freshened with five weeks between runs and impressed in a recent barrier trial when third to Remarque at Rosehill. Switzerland settled back in the field, staying on the rails the zoomed home without being pressured by his rider to be beaten a half length into third place. If this trial is any indication, the colt is going to be hard to beat in the Roman Consul Stakes.

Black Caviar's grandson Keysborough (out of Oscietra) leads all the way to win a Rosehill trial on Tuesday over @godolphin pair Red Card and Kallos. Todman Stakes winner Switzerland ran fourth. @tabcomaupic.twitter.com/4O46pW8wb5

— Racing NSW (@racing_nsw) August 19, 2024

IKNOWASTAR (race 8) always trials well but this was something else at Warwick Farm on September 30. He flew the gates, led by more than 10 lengths at the 600m and streaked home nearly 12 lengths clear of his rivals in a 1207m heat. Although Iknowastar has never won first-up previously in five attempts, he is trained up for his return in the Alan Brown Stakes.

⭐️⭐️⭐️⭐️⭐️
A five star win!

Iknowastar leads all the way at Randwick, giving @RachelK11 a double!@[e-mail]/0uj4oiEWKe

— SKY Racing (@SkyRacingAU) May 25, 2024

• Ray & Duff’s Rosehill tips, analysis: Snack Bar to provide a feast for punters

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SECTIONAL STARS
GOLDEN PATH (race 7) ran into two in-form gallopers in Eliyass and Ceolwulf when third in the Kingston Town Stakes last start. Golden Path stuck to his task gamely with a final 600m of 33.88s and 200m closing sectional of 11.66s – impressive splits at the end of 2000m. The form out of this race is outstanding with Eliyass finishing third in the Group 1 Turnbull Stakes, Ceolwulf winning the Group 1 Epsom Handicap and Land Legend coming off an unplaced Kingston Town Stakes turn to win the Group 1 The Metropolitan.

Yasss!

A great finish to the G3 Kingston Town Stakes, with Eliyass adding another win to his impressive record! Bring on the Metrop!@clarkyhk | @GaiWaterhouse1pic.twitter.com/NGW067HC04

— SKY Racing (@SkyRacingAU) September 21, 2024

GRINGOTTS (race 8) was held up for a run in the straight but when finally clear charged home to just miss reeling in McHale in the Bill Ritchie Handicap. Despite having an interrupted run, the Ciaron Maher-trained Gringotts was timed to run his final 600m in 33.76s with a final 200m of 11.31s.

A total thriller in the G3 Bill Ritchie Handicap, with the outsider Mchale victorious by the narrowest of margins for @RachelK11 and @cwallerracing! 🙌 pic.twitter.com/7jlz2ZWOVt

— SKY Racing (@SkyRacingAU) September 21, 2024

• Hayes confident Here To Shock can deliver in Alan Brown

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BEST BET
BEAR ON THE LOOSE (race 3) was having his first start for over two months in a Randwick 1600m event three weeks ago and led most of the way before finishing second to Floating. Bear On The Loose ran a slick 11.4s 200m sectional from the 400m as he tried to break clear of his rivals only to be collared near the line by race-fit Floating when resuming. A Rosehill 1800m winner during winter, Bear On The Loose will be fitter for that recent run and is the one to beat.

Floating gives @ZacLloydx a Randwick double with a win in the Shoot Out Mile!@mcsmithracingpic.twitter.com/eQkvb3PfoA

— SKY Racing (@SkyRacingAU) September 21, 2024

• Who was better: Octagonal or Lonhro? Trainer John Hawkes reveals his pick

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VALUE
BLANC DE BLANC (race 9) has produced two excellent efforts in defeat since resuming, chasing home the exciting Briasa and then beating all but Ostraka, both races over the Rosehill 1100m. The Michael Freedman-trained Blanc De Blanc has drawn a little awkwardly but if she gets even luck in running, she will go close in The Nivision. She is at generous odds of $11.

Ostraka from near last motors home to win the final race at Rosehill, giving Jason Collett a winning double as well as @ANeashamRacing! pic.twitter.com/rluLGDJsf0

— SKY Racing (@SkyRacingAU) September 14, 2024

Originally published as Ray Thomas’s Rosehill Inside Mail for Saturday: Why punters must be wary of these David Payne-trained roughies