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Ray Thomas and Ron Dufficy’s tips, analysis for all 10 races at Randwick

Ron Dufficy has zeroed in on a promising two-year-old for his best bet at Royal Randwick tomorrow – but it’s not Storm Boy. He joins Ray Thomas in analysing the 10-race card.

Racenet
9 min read
March 1, 2024 - 10:52AM
Form experts Ray Thomas (left) and Ron Dufficy.
Form experts Ray Thomas (left) and Ron Dufficy.

The Daily Telegraph racing editor Ray Thomas and Sky Thoroughbred Central’s form expert Ron Dufficy discuss all the big-race chances on a bumper Group 1 meeting at Royal Randwick on Saturday.

DUFF’S SUGGESTED BETS

RANDWICK BEST BET
Race 6 No.1 MANAAL

RANDWICK VALUE BET
Race 1 No.8 VINDICATION

RACE 1: TAB Midway (1100m)

Ron Dufficy: I quite like VINDICATION (8) here. I think his recent trial was a real eye-catcher. He has got very good fresh form and the map looks perfect for him, so happy to have something on him at odds. MAD DARCEY (14) caught the eye charging home last start and the 1100m appears to suit her much better here. MOONLIGHT GRACE (7) is a mare I have always liked. I was taken with her recent trial so I am anticipating she comes back well here. MARTIAL MUSIC (6) won landing good bets there first-up but just has to stretch it out to 1100m here and while he’s got a poor record at the distance, he could well be stronger this prep.

Ray Thomas: I’m going wide with MOONLIGHT GRACE (7). She is resuming after a long spell but has had two recent barrier trials to ready her for a comeback to racing. Her most recent trial she ran a closing third to Reggie’s Boy at Gosford. Moonlight Grace is a smart mare with a good first-up record, nicely drawn and over the odds around $19. MARTIAL MUSIC (6) is obviously the one to beat. He won the Midway over 1000m here two weeks ago in good time when resuming, will strip fitter and is advantaged drawing the rails barrier. VINDICATION (8) had good Midway form when last in work and usually sprints well fresh. SUPER BRIGHT (5) returned to winning form at Warwick Farm last start and will be hard to beat here.

Vindication (red cap) represents good value in the opener at Randwick on Saturday. Picture: Bradley Photos
Vindication (red cap) represents good value in the opener at Randwick on Saturday. Picture: Bradley Photos

RACE 2: James Squire Hcp (1200m)

Dufficy: I know MORAVIA (2) had every hope the other day but I want to give him another chance. I think it was a strong race and I think he is much better off here just down that little bit in grade so I’ll lean his way to beat the flying OUR KOBISON (3) who has been kept fresh since settling the track alight winning last start. He’ll be obviously hard to beat with barrier one and James McDonald but he is very short. TINTOOKIE (5) is a good, tough mare who has got nice for around the favourite and is better off at the weights here. PEREILLE (4) has had a month’s freshen and a nice easy trial since winning at Moonee Valley so the timing is right to run well again.

Thomas: OUR KOBISON (3) is a promising sprinter chasing a hat-trick after two brilliant Rosehill wins, the most recent in track record time of 1m 8.3s for 1200m. Although Our Kobison is creeping up in the weights he’s a sprinter with obvious ability and can win again. MORAVIA (2) was backed into favouritism in the Eskimo Prince Stakes first-up and was slightly disappointing, fading for fourth behind Caballus. He’s a talented colt and will strip fitter. He deserves another chance. TASHI (6) is racing in very good form and PEREILLE (4) scored a confidence-boosting win at Moonee Valley and is not out of this contest.

RACE 3: TAB Highway (1000m)

Dufficy: I am quite keen on ONCE AGAIN MY GIRL (5). She is a talented, lightly-raced mare off a bleeding attack but it took Derry Grove to beat her with inexperience first-up late preparation in a Highway and I think that form stands out here. PERENNIAL (2) is an unbeaten three-year-old who really looked the part winning that 900m race at Newcastle and that form has been franked since so he’ll be very popular here. COMPELLING TRUTH (3) has got a horror draw but all three wins have been by big margins in fast time. He is well-bred and could well shape up. LYRICAL BEAUTY (13) resumes without a trial. I thought she represents a bit of value here if she gets a tick off in the yard and the market.

Thomas: PERENNIAL (2) is protecting a perfect race record. He’s won each of his three starts, all over 900m, with authority and could not have been more impressive at Newcastle when he ran fast time. ONCE AGAIN MY GIRL (5) is another promising sprinter resuming here. She has won two of her five starts and the only time has been beaten out of a place was in stakes grade. She trialled well at Scone and is perfectly drawn. OUTISHKA (4) is very fit and in top form, coming off a win at Newcastle over 900m in very fast time. BRIDIE’S LUCK (15) is another speedy type who won well at Wagga when resuming. She can take full advantage of the rails barrier.

RACE 4: Skyline Stakes (1200m)

Dufficy: Impossible to tip against STORM BOY (1). He is a class colt, we all know that, and it is just exciting to see him back on the track to see what he can do. DUVANA (8) is a really nice colt in the making. He probably wants further but I am expecting a good finish from him. PROST (3) resumed winning the Canonbury and that form reads strong outside the favourite here. PARKOUR (4) – you have to respect Godolphin’s two-year-olds at this time of year and HE should run well.

Thomas: STORM BOY (1) is arguably the most exciting young sprinter in training, his three wins from as many starts all characterised by his dominant front-running style. He was outstanding winning the Magic Millions last start and was looked in exceptional order in a recent Rosehill trial. PROST (3) won the Canonbury Stakes in good style when resuming but he needs to improve considerably to test Storm Boy. DUVANA (8) is probably looking for 1400m or even further already but with this race likely to be run at a solid tempo, he will be getting home hard. PARKOUR (4) showed promise in his debut preparation including his win over the Randwick 1200m in late December.

RACE 5: Yarraman Park Hcp (2000m)

Dufficy: I just want to go a different formline here with FLOATING (7). He is going well. I love him back up to 2000m at Randwick where he won two starts back and I think the map looks good for him. I will lean his way to beat REDSTONE WELL (1). He is an improving import off a solid win last start and he obviously gives the impression the 2000m should be perfect for him. PERFECT THOUGHT (5) was much better having his first run as a gelding last time and he could get on-pace favours here with no pressure on up front. And MIRACLE SPIN (8) is the other one. A stablemate of Floating who was very good late last start off a freshen so 2000m suits him here with no work to do from barrier one.

Thomas: REDSTONE WELL (1) stayed at 1600m last start but showed his quality to breakthrough for his first Australian win at Randwick. The step to 2000m will certainly suit this former Irish galloper and although he has to shoulder 59.5kg, James McDonald stays with the gelding and he can win again. LOGAN STREET LION (3) made good ground late to claim third behind Redstone Well and is working his way back to top form after two runs from a spell. FLOATING (7) and MIRACLE SPIN (8) give trainer Matthew Smith a strong hand in the race and both are set to run very competitive races.

RACE 6: Sweet Embrace Stakes (1200m)

Dufficy: I’m quite keen on MANAAL (1). I think she was far from disgraced going down in fast time first-up and she finds her right race here and looks a good bet. WAVE BREAKER (7) – I like this filly. Probably more later on although she is still a winning chance here, 1200m seems perfect for her as well. CASTANYA (2) was very good in both starts hitting the line hard and should be in the finish again. CHATEAU MIRAVAL (4) probably gets a good on-pace run here and it is hard to oppose the Waterhouse-Bott two-year-olds at the moment.

Thomas: I don’t mind EXTREME DIVA (6) at double figure odds. Her effort to close late for third behind Switzerland and Shangri La Express in the Pierro Plate was very good. Either of those two colts would be a short-priced favourite against this field so Extreme Diva is great each way value. MANAAL (1) won the Gimcrack Stakes on debut then resumed with her good second behind the brilliant Lady Of Camelot in the Widden Stakes. She’s fitter and will be able to take up a position in the front half of the field within striking distance of the leaders. She is the one to beat. FLY FLY (11) had no luck in the Pierro Plate and finished just behind Extreme Diva. Include Fly Fly in all multiples. CASTANYA (2) attacked the line strongly to win the Lonhro Plate and is well placed against her own sex here.

RACE 7: TAB Verry Elleegant Stakes (1600m)

Dufficy:FANGIRL (9) only has to reproduce that booming performance in the Apollo to prove hard to beat again here. She is short odds but probably deservedly so. BUCKAROO (4) turned in an eye-catching run in the Apollo with improvement to come so I expect he gets a lot closer today. THINK IT OVER (1) did more than enough first-up, doing more work than most early. He maps well and loves the track and distance so he has got a better chance this week. JUST FINE (5) is the dark horse. He put his name up in lights winning his first three runs in Australia last preparation in fast time too. They won’t want to forget about him up front here.

Thomas: FANGIRL (9) was so dynamic in the Apollo Stakes first-up, treating the majority of her rivals in this race with utter disdain. An outstanding mare, Fangirl has returned better than ever and the outside draw complements her stalking racing pattern. THINK IT OVER (1) ran well in the Apollo, finishing third, and it is worth remembering back in spring he won the 7 Stakes over the Randwick mile course with Fangirl in third placing. LINDERMANN (7) had no luck first-up and can improve. He has early tactical speed and can put himself into the contest. He’s a big improver. CASCADIAN (2) also raced without luck first-up and watch for him to run his usual competitive race.

RACE 8: Surround Stakes (1400m)

Dufficy: Im going with LEARNING TO FLY (4). I think she did more than enough first-up after a long break. She has got a barrier to position closer here and we will see how good she is. TROPICAL SQUALL (1) interests me. She is a good filly. She has got speed and stamina and the map looks good for her. MAKARENA (8) probably would have been closer to top pick with a better draw. She just needs a lot to fall into place but she is a talented filly. As for KIMOCHI (3), how can you leave her out? She is just so reliable but it is just a little trickier here with a couple of speed horses inside her so she might have a little bit of work to do to find a position.

Thomas: LEARNING TO FLY (4) and KIMOCHI (3) had a terrific duel for the Light Fingers Stakes two weeks ago with the latter prevailing narrowly. Learning To Fly was having her first start for nearly a year and will take significant improvement into this race. I am leaning to Learning To Fly but Kimochi will be competitive as always and will make a race of it again. MAKARENA (8) ran a blinder first-up against the colts in the Eskimo Prince, finishing strongly for second, and she will appreciate 1400m. ZARDOZI (2) won the VRC Oaks last spring and although this is short of her best, she has looked sharp in her trials and has the class to sprint well fresh.

RACE 9: Proven Thoroughbreds Guy Walter Stakes (1400m)

Dufficy: I want to go with HINGED (2) here. I know she hasn’t won in a while but this is the best option she has had first-up in a long while. I would have liked a softer track obviously but she is adaptable in a winnable race. DUAIS (1) is another one with no recent wins but just class on her side. I would have liked to have seen more speed up front for her. AUSBRED FLIRT (6) gets the run of the race here and she is capable of a little upset. MORE SECRETS (5) is resuming without a trial but finds a suitable race.

Thomas: AUSBRED FLIRT (6), who is also entered for the Provincial-Midway qualifier at Newcastle, is an under-rated mare, well-drawn and has a good first-up record. DUAIS (1) and HINGED (2) are the class mares of the field. They are both capable of sprinting well fresh and stay under notice. MORE SECRETS (5) is a smart mare on her day and she races well fresh. MISS FABERGE (7) is huge odds but is improving with racing and is a good each way gamble.

RACE 10: Liverpool City Cup (1300m)

Dufficy: I’m leaning to COAL CRUSHER (2). I thought he was terrific first-up with improvement to come. He is a tough customer and he can cope with being aggressive early here and still be there at the finish. DEMOCRACY MANIFEST (5) is suited in this fast race and he’s got terrific fresh form so he should be steaming home late. Massive watch on NEW ENERGY (6) who is a very interesting import. He looked good winning a Melbourne jump-out recently and I am very wary of him. KOVALICA (4) is probably a better horse second-up over further but with James McDonald on, he will attract a lot of interest in a race like this.

Thomas: COAL CRUSHER (2) is one of the most improved sprinters in training. He was spelled after winning The Hunter last spring and resumed with an excellent second to the classy King Of Sparta in the Expressway Stakes. This is his right distance range, he is effective second-up. he gets track conditions to suit, the barrier isn’t a concern as he will cruise across and race on speed in the controlling position. WHINCHAT (13) is another emerging sprinter, very fit and in top form. DEMOCRACY MANIFEST (5) will be closing fast and KOVALICA (4) needs further but he has the much class and ability to be competitive.

Originally published as Ray Thomas and Ron Dufficy’s tips, analysis for all 10 races at Randwick

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Original URL: https://www.ntnews.com.au/sport/horse-racing/expert-opinion/ray-thomas-and-ron-dufficys-tips-analysis-for-all-10-races-at-randwick/news-story/a7b9d77049d35a327cb06eabb8c33609