Sam Kerr injury latest: How Matildas captain could play ‘specific role’ at Olympics
Sam Kerr can’t defy scientific history to regain full fitness in time for the Paris Olympics, but there is a very specific role that could keep her chances of appearing alive.
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Matildas superstar Sam Kerr cannot “trick the body” or defy scientific history to regain full fitness and play at the 2024 Paris Olympics after her devastating anterior cruciate ligament knee injury.
But there is hope she could play a very specific role.
As fans come to terms with the long term injury to captain Kerr just over six months out from the Olympic Games, Football Australia was quick to highlight that neither her English club Chelsea or the Matildas had officially ruled the 30-year-old out of Paris contention.
While Matildas star Ellie Carpenter returned 10 months after a knee reconstruction to play a huge role for Australia’s World Cup last year, Kerr would need to be back in action in just over six months or 28 weeks.
Such a move would be a medical miracle.
“It’s a nine to 12 month time frame but if she gets back earlier than that it’s most unusual,” said respected sports doctor Peter Larkins.
“That (nine months) is the minimum, that’s when people really do everything really well.
“The short answer is no (being ready for the Olympic Games).
“Motivation is one thing, but you still cannot trick the body.”
The small glimmer of hope for Kerr is not that she could play at the Olympics, it’s that theoretically she could be physically able to simply take a penalty kick.
Matildas coach Tony Gustavsson showed during last year’s World Cup he was willing to risk carrying a player for a specific role having selected Kyah Simon as a “game-changer”.
The view was she could step up to take a penalty, but a calf injury in camp meant she was never brought on for the shootout against France.
But could Kerr, with the perfect recovery timeline, be able to take a spot kick and inspire the Matildas with her bench and camp presence?
Larkins said typically by that stage of recovery from an ACL surgery, patients are working on directional changes and strength so Kerr may indeed be capable of stepping up for a one-off shot.
“The best patients are up and running in a straight line after three months,” Larkins said.
“From three to six months you are doing strength work.
“If she is just doing the penalty shootout, then it’s definitely possible but I don’t know how that would work from a qualification requirement.”
Whether her club Chelsea is willing to risk such a proposal three months ahead of the usual return-to-play schedule is another key factor.
Kerr is off contract and until the injury sustained at the Chelsea training camp in Morocco on Sunday, she was expected to become one of the first players in history to sign a $1m a season deal.
From a club perspective, they’d be taking a risk with their biggest investment.
The club did not put a timeline on her return, but confirmed her WSL season which ends in May is officially over.
The Matildas face Uzbekistan in a two-legged play-off next month to qualify for the Paris Olympics.
“Considering how hard Sam has worked over the past six months to return to play, this news is a devastating blow for everyone,” Matildas coach Tony Gustavsson said.
“With her ability to lead by example, Sam’s guidance and influence on the team is significant and, as a result, this will be an incredible loss for the national team.
“Our focus now is on ensuring she has all the support she wants and needs to navigate recovery and rehab.”
EXPLAINER: WHAT $1M INJURY MEANS FOR KERR, MATILDAS, OLYMPICS
What injury has Sam Kerr suffered and how long is her recovery time?
Chelsea’s statement simply said Kerr “sustained an anterior cruciate ligament injury” while Football Australia’s statement described it as a “ruptured anterior cruciate ligament”. That’s not good news. Typically a ruptured ACL requires surgery and is a minimum nine-month recovery. It is the second time Kerr has suffered an ACL, the previous injury happened in 2011. The season-ending knee injury has become a major issue for all women’s sports, in Australia’s A-League women’s there have been six ACL injuries in the first half of the season alone while the NRLW reported 10 in 2023 and the AFLW had nine. Several of the world’s leading women’s players missed last year’s World Cup in Australia due to knee reconstructions. Experts claim female athletes are “five to seven times” more likely than men to suffer ACL injuries.
What does this mean for Sam Kerr’s playing future?
Kerr is coming off contract at Chelsea and there was a strong belief in the UK that the 30-year-old was in line to become the first female player in history to sign a playing contract worth over $1m a season. The question now will be whether Chelsea are willing to offer such a lucrative deal and break the bank for a player coming off a serious knee injury. There’s no doubt Kerr is still young enough to recover and return to the peak of her powers, but the timing of this injury simply could not be worse for Kerr and her contract negotiations. It’s hard to see any rival clubs willing to make serious bids on an injured player that would drive her income into the seven-figure stratosphere.
Will Sam Kerr play at the Olympic Games?
The Matildas have ruled Kerr out of their Olympic qualifiers in February and Chelsea has ruled her out for the rest of their Super League season, ending in May. But neither club nor country has ruled her out of the Olympic Games in July, instead insisting “no time frame” has been put on her return.
It would take a medical miracle for Kerr to be back playing at full capacity in six and a half months when the Paris Olympics begin.
But, could she be another of Tony Gustavsson’s infamous “game-changers”?
Matildas fans will remember the coach carried Kyah Simon into last year’s World Cup just nine months after her ACL injury in a ‘game-changer’ role that almost saw her brought onto the pitch for the penalty shootout win over France.
We’ve since learned Simon injured her calf during the World Cup camp, so it wasn’t her ACL that kept Gustavsson from pulling the trigger on her playing a role.
Could Kerr be selected for Paris with a similar view – a “break glass in case of emergency” option off the bench for a penalty shootout?
Given her experience and what she does in and around the team off the pitch, it would not be the greatest shock if she was taken to Paris albeit as a playing passenger.
When do the Matildas next play?
Tony Gustavsson will have very little time to come up with his Sam Kerr solution, because just next month Australia faces a do-or-die two-game playoff against World No.47 Uzbekistan. It presents him the opportunity to showcase any new young talent – and cement his preferred attacking threat. But he cannot get it wrong, with their spot in Paris on the line.
Uzbekistan hosts the first leg in Tashkent in 47 days, with the final outcome decided at Melbourne’s Marvel Stadium four days later on February 28. Kerr played a significant role in Australia’s earlier, qualifying wins against Iran, Philippines and Chinese Taipei.
How do the Matildas replace Kerr in their starting side?
As we saw during the FIFA World Cup last year, Australia has options to cover the absence of Kerr in the starting side. Gustavsson ran with Mary Fowler and Caitlin Foord up front last year and some would argue the Matildas looked sharper in attack without Kerr as the focal point. Foord and Hayley Raso both stepped up to score goals while Fowler was the breakout star of the tournament for Australia, showing the world she has the potential to be Australia’s next superstar. Australia will be all-in on Fowler for Paris but you simply cannot escape the fact that a Matildas-side minus a fully fit Kerr is a devastating blow to their chances of winning an Olympic medal.
Which young blood could force their way into the Olympic squad?
As already discussed, the Matildas have not yet ruled Kerr out of the Paris Games – but her availability very much hangs by a thread, which would open up a spot in Gustavsson’s squad. Charlie Rule, a 20-year-old with Brighton in the WSL, looms as a potential big winner after she got a taste of the team environment and subsequently made her debut for the Matildas against Canada in November last year. Unfortunately one of the primary candidates – highly rated 20-year-old striker Holly McNamara – is also sidelined with an ACL injury, suffered prior to the Canada friendlies.
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