Premier League news: Ange Postecoglou’s Spurs left with work to do for coveted CL spot
Just 11 matches remain for Ange Postecoglou’s Tottenham this season but there could be lots to look forward to. ERIN SMITH predicts how the ladder will look at the end of the season.
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Ange Postecoglou’s Tottenham Hotspur side are within reach of a Champions League berth but first the Aussie manager must guide his team through a precarious final leg and hold off a massive threat.
Their 4-0 thumping over fourth placed Aston Villa at the weekend locked Tottenham into fifth place on the EPL ladder – just two points behind Villa – who have played an extra match.
Tottenham have 11 matches to go before the season finishes on May 20.
It sounds like plenty of time to find those extra points and leapfrog Villa – but Manchester United is closing the gap and is proving a huge threat to Postecoglou’s Champions League dream.
Manchester United sit in sixth spot, eight points behind Villa. Their goal difference of 0 is nothing to be proud of and far from that of Tottenham and Villa – but working in United’s favour is their run home.
Tottenham have to face Newcastle United, Manchester City, Arsenal and Liverpool in consecutive games. Their games against Newcastle and Liverpool will be played in enemy territory.
The Red Devils don’t have to play rivals Manchester City in their final matches. And they get to take on Arsenal and Liverpool from the comfort of Old Trafford. Just four of their remaining opponents are placed in the top 10 in the competition.
If you compare the average season points total of Villa’s, Tottenham’s and Manchester United’s remaining competition – United by far has an easier run home.
Their remaining opposition have an average points total of 36.4 – which on paper should be an easier run home than Villa whose opponents averaged 44.3 and Tottenham’s which sits at 38.2. But Manchester United have lost 11 games these season, many against opponents that on paper they should have beaten.
After being bundled out in the early stages of this season’s Champions League Manchester United will be desperate to earn back their spot in the elite competition.
Postecoglou has made it clear his ultimate goal is to lift the Premier League trophy next season – but playing Champions League would be a major step towards making that happen.
Not only because of the financial boost but the prestige of being in the league helps attract top class players and will help keep top talent at the club.
The Postecoglou led Tottenham have a decent record against the competition front runners – Manchester City, Liverpool and Arsenal.
They drew with Arsenal 2-2 in their first outing, beat Liverpool 2-1 the following week and fought back to draw with City 3-3.
If Postecoglou does slip or Villa manages to hang onto fourth spot – all hopes of playing Champions League are not entirely over.
The competition is expanding next season from 32 teams to 36. It means there are extra spots up for grabs and there could be five EPL teams instead of four. Two leagues will be given an additional place based on their performance of teams from that league in this year’s Champions League, Europa League and Conference League.
It means the team that clinches fifth spot in the Premier League could earn a ticket to the Champions League – depending on how results fall.
Tottenham’s first hurdle will be against Fulham on Sunday morning (AEDT).
THE FINAL RUN
1. Arsenal (64 points, 20 wins, 4 draw, 4 loses)
Remaining games: Chelsea (H), Manchester City (A), Luton Town (H), Brighton (A), Aston Villa (H), Wolves (A), Tottenham (A), Bournemouth (H), Manchester Utd (A), Everton (H)
Analysis: Face possibly the toughest run home of the top three teams with Manchester City, Aston Villa, Tottenham and Manchester United in their path and it is unlikely they will be able to keep their hold on the top of the ladder. Champions League could also hinder their performance.
Prediction: Runners-up, 85 points
2. Liverpool (64 points, 19 wins, 7 draws, 2 loses)
Remaining games: Everton (A), Brighton (H), Sheffield Utd (H), Manchester Utd (A), Crystal Palace (H), Fulham (A), West Ham (A), Tottenham (H), Aston Villa (A), Wolves (H)
Analysis: Will struggle to keep City and Arsenal off their heels. Their last three matches will most likely determine where they wash up this season. They could sneak into second place if Arsenal slip up. While Jurgen Klopp would love to finish his time at the club on a high it will be a tough ask to lift the trophy.
Prediction: Third, 84 points
3. Manchester City (63 points, 19 wins, 6 draws, 3 loses)
Remaining games: Brighton (A), Arsenal (H), Aston Villa (H), Crystal Palace (A), Luton Town (H), Tottenham (A), Nottingham Forest (A), Wolves (H), Fulham (A), West Ham (H)
Analysis: On paper Manchester City have the easiest run home of any team in the top six. Their upcoming clashes with Arsenal and Aston Villa will be all important but City have hit the jackpot with back to back home matches. A win against either side could see them tip the scales and push Arsenal out of top spot again. Their team is too strong and has too much depth not to win it.
Prediction: Champions, 87 points
4. Aston Villa (55 points, 17 wins, 4 draws, 7 loses)
Remaining games: West Ham (A), Wolves (H), Manchester City (A), Brentford (H), Arsenal (A), Bournemouth (H), Chelsea (H), Brighton (A), Liverpool (H), Crystal Palace (A)
Analysis: With all three front runners in their path Aston Villa’s chances of holding onto the fourth rung of the ladder are slim. Sure Villa scraped 1-0 wins against City and Arsenal earlier in the season, but they also suffered a 3-0 loss to Liverpool. The games against Manchester United, Wolves and Brighton will be crucial.
Prediction: Fifth, 72 points
5. Tottenham Hotspur (53 points, 16 wins, 5 draws, 6 loses)
Remaining games: Fulham (A), Luton Town (H), West Ham (A), Nottingham Forest (H), Newcastle Utd (A), Manchester City (H), Arsenal (H), Liverpool (A), Burnley (H), Sheffield Utd (A), Chelsea (A)
Analysis: Tottenham will have to pull off some big upsets in order to clamber into fourth spot and earn a Champions League berth. They will need to keep injury free and stay focused even in the so-called easier games. Any loss could see them stuck in fifth place or even sink to sixth.
Prediction: Fourth, 74 points
6. Manchester United (47 points, 15 wins, 2 draws, 11 loses)
Remaining games: Brentford (A), Chelsea (A), Liverpool (H), Bournemouth (A), Newcastle Utd (H), Burnley (H), Crystal Palace (A), Arsenal (H), Brighton (A), Sheffield Utd (H)
Analysis: A fairly smooth run home but United’s track record makes them an outside chance to make their way much further up the ladder. If United can find form and string some games together the confidence boost might be enough for them to challenge Crystal Palace, Arsenal and Brighton for some much needed points late in the season.
Prediction: Sixth, 68 points
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