Expert analysis for Hot100 Darwin Guineas Day 2019

RACING expert Tom Rush has analysed every race on Day 1 of the Darwin Cup Carnival at Fannie Bay on Saturday.

Jockey Brendon Davis and Captain Punch win last year’s Palmerston Sprint. He will resume in the Betfair Handicap (1100m)

Race 1 - 12:50PM Campaign Edge Sprout TROBIS Handicap (1600 METRES)

LOTS OF COIN looks a value runner to kick off the Carnival. The John Peacock-trained three-year-old hit the line strongly when saved for one sprint at them winning his maiden then got a long way back and spent all his petrol making a long wide run behind Mulk last start. The step up in trip is the query but he maps to get the right run and explode late under the guidance of in-form hoop Terry Treichel. Expect grey filly GENERAL FACTOR to take up the front running here and give a bold sight. The Hickmott stable have had this carnival on the radar since her Balaklava win in May. MAORI MAGIC comes out of a good form race and must be respected.

Race 2 - 1:27PM Mix 104.9 Handicap (1300 METRES)

Most of these have had plenty of chances and confidence levels are not high.HURRY HOME HARRY put in a career best performance last Saturday behind Mulk, covering ground from the wide gate. He fought on bravely and a repeat of that sees him in the finish again. DIVISIONAL has had a month between runs since his failure at Adelaide River. He is right in this on his best form but the barrier is of no assistance.CAPTAIN CALIFORNIAcomes out of the same race as HURRY HOME HARRY. The four-year-old would have derived benefit from his first run here and looks an improver. The Dick Leech-trained last start placegetterTIGER TRAPis next best.

Race 3 - 2:02PM TOXFREE Handicap (1300 METRES)

DOWNHEARTED was a game effort doing all of the work outside Iceflow in his first run back on June 22 when collared late by the The Wild Side. The Gary Clarke-trained gelding was well fancied that day and will run well again. Adelaide visitor SKY PUNCH has shown some ability in his 13-start career and that form should measure up in a race of this nature. Throw PATRIA into your quinellas and trifectas. He will likely go around over the odds and is better than what we saw last start. AMERICAN MUSCLE is drawn to get the run of the race again and is a knockout hope. The enigmatic Tayarn Halter-trained HARREBS TIME cannot be ruled out on his best form.

Harrebs Time winning at Fannie Bay in 2017

Race 4 - 2:42PM 92.3FM Top Country Handicap (1200 METRES)

Put a pen through DAISLEY’s most recent outing. Four-wide the trip chasing Mulk is racing suicide. This looks a much more suitable task and she looks the each-way play at double figure odds. LET’S CELEBRATE was costly from a punting perspective towards the end of his last preparation but must be respected from the Clarke yard fresh. PRINCESS LEAH wasn’t disgraced behind the speedy Kronos and can figure in the finish. Don’t let COTILLION sneak under your guard. The filly has no first-up form to speak of but she should go forward and put herself in the race. PERPETUAL BLISS and TICKET TO PARIS can feature with the right run in transit.

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Race 5 - 3:22PM Betfair Handicap (1100 METRES)

The Gary Clarke-trained CAPTAIN PUNCH is three from three when first-up at Fannie Bay and no reason to suggest this record won’t continue. 61.5kg won’t stop the Palmerston Sprint hero from winning this. EL TORANADO got involved in a speed battle with Kilim last start and this brought about his downfall when a short-priced favourite. A kinder ride from the rails draw and he looks the likely quinella.

One to watch in the race is JACKANORY who has only had one start in the past 12 months which was a soft win at Alice Springs in February. His best is good enough to be competitive in this field.

JAVA is a serious winning chance if the top fancies are off their game.

Race 6 - 4:05PM Mrs Macs Handicap (1100 METRES)

Very open event. The Angela Forster-trained TYCOON DANCER is the top selection. The son of Written Tycoon will improve off its first look at the track and if he can box seat from a good gate he will be hard to hold out. MARBEL DUKE will be well found in the market given his record at the track. He was only average the last couple behind Quantum Dot but should find this a slightly easier assignment. Handy Victorian galloper BOLEK goes a lot better than 18.5 lengths last where he tried to match motors with Kronos early. THE HUMMEL hasn’t won fresh in eight previous attempts but has raced well in this grade over previous carnivals.

Trainer Angela Forster

Race 7 - 4:35PM Territory Uniforms Handicap (1600 METRES)

We won’t see the Darwin Cup winner come from this lot but it looks like Neil Dyer and Terry Treichel can come to the fore again with MUTIN. The five-year-old closed off well enough behind WICKED RHYTHM at his most recent outing and should be ready to peak third up after a long lay-off.

BRIDGEY FLYER hasn’t raced for a month where he fought on gamely to score after looking in trouble approaching the home turn to hold off Mutin. CASHING UP hasn’t been far away of late and is worth including in your multiple bets. Top weight ROSHERVILLE can improve after his last start flop.

Race 8 - 5:10PM Hot100 Darwin Guineas (1600 METRES)

SIR GARFIELD put in a slashing run first-up in the Top End when he just failed to peg back POET’S LANDING over 1300m for trainer Greg Connor. The way the big grey tracked into the race and attacked the line late suggests this is the perfect stepping stone towards the Derby later in the Carnival. He looks a great each-way play out to the 1600m of the Guineas. SAVATOXL only knows one way and that’s flat out. If he has taken no ill-effects from the trip to Brisbane his best is certainly good enough under these set-weight conditions. Career-best performances were over this distance (NT Guineas and Chief Minister’s Cup in Alice Springs) and if he brings that form to Fannie Bay he can win. He will roll forward and look to break the hearts of the opposition from the get-go. You have to respect POET’S LANDING with the Kennewell polish. He will likely start favourite on his lead-up win on June 22 but at the expected odds I’m happy to watch him go around on this occasion. COUNTRY COP will look to come across and track SAVATOXL but this will be run a lot different than his last start win over Borlung. Given the expected hot tempo, another Gary Clarke runner PAGHMAN is capable of an upset. A saver place bet is advised on the consistent son of Ilovethiscity, who has won four times and been placed on seven other occasions in his 12 starts. He was beaten by 3.4 lengths behind POET’S LANDING and SIR GARFIELD last time but he can improve tomorrow.

Alice Springs trainer Greg Connor

Race 9 - 5:45PM miilan Handicap (1600 METRES)

The Michael Hickmott-trained LIEDER would be the Darwin Cup favourite at this very moment and this looks a winnable assignment to kick off his campaign. Expect him to drop back from the gate and round them up late.

Stablemate ADATTO is the one that will offer the most resistance on the back-up from Saturday where he fought on gamely behind the handy sprinter Bakslap. The five-year-old should settle right on the speed here and if he can pinch a break on the home turn his more fancied stablemate will need to be right on his game.

WAYANKA and LOTION, who can both give some cheek on the pace, can fight it out for the minor spoils.

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TOM RUSH - Racing Expert

BEST BET:

CAPTAIN PUNCH (R5 No.1) The sprinting star will be short odds but his record at Fannie Bay speaks for itself (eight wins from 10 starts). Expect him to be too good for this lot.

VALUE BET

MUTIN (R7 No.6) Winning record doesn’t excite (two from 29) but is consistent with 17 placings. Strikes a winnable race here.

SNEAKY CHANCE

PAGHMAN (R8 No.7) Expected to benefit from what looks to be a brutally run Guineas. Watch out if they tire in the last 100m.

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GREY MORRIS - NT News Sports Editor

BEST BET

LEIDER (R9 No.1) Last year’s Darwin Cup runner-up is resuming after his dominant Alice Springs Cup win. He’s a class above this lot. Should be winning despite the 62kg.

VALUE BET

SIR GARFIELD (R8 No.10) Great run here first time around; can turn the tables on Poet’s Landing and should get a good price.

SNEAKY CHANCE

TICKET TO PARIS (R4 No.2) This mare is lethal on her day and first-up in an average race, drawn barrier 1, she can run a big race.

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JOSH SPASARO - NT News Deputy Sports Editor

BEST BET

LIEDER (R9 No.1)

Last start was a comprehensive 10-length win of the Alice Springs Cup.

VALUE BET

SAVATOXL (R8 No.9)

Has terrific Territory form. His Chief Minister’s Cup triumph in Alice Springs was his sixth win in a row. Now in champion trainer Gary Clarke’s stable.

SNEAKY CHANCE

DELTA D’OR (R6 No.5)

Won two from his past five starts. Is he due for another victory tomorrow?

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ANDREW O’TOOLE — Thoroughbred Racing NT chief executive and Sky Racing analyst

BEST BET

WICKED RHYTHM (R7 No.2) Strong win second-up last start in Darwin over same trip. Should go on with the job tomorrow.

VALUE BET

LET’S CELEBRATE (R4 No.3) Handy mare resuming. Does not win out of turn but seldom runs a bad race.

SNEAKY CHANCE

WAYANKA (R9 No.4) Not far away first-up in Darwin over 1300m. Steps up in trip and although unproven at the journey, could get some of it. Top hoop on.