Cricket’s Moneyball man can lead Australia to break through T20 World Cup crown
Meet Australia’s unofficial fourth selector - a man so revered by Justin Langer the coach has trusted him to orchestrate a break through Twenty20 World Cup crown.
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Meet Australia’s unofficial fourth selector — the trusted right-hand man Justin Langer refers to as “captain”.
Dene Hills is Australia’s performance analyst and numbers man who is helping shape the campaign to break through and win the Twenty20 World Cup for the first time.
For example, did you know, that for batsmen between No.4 and 7 in T20 cricket, if they hit a boundary in their first five balls they average 28 plus? But if they don’t hit a boundary early, they average just 11.
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“The point about that is it’s about mindset,” said Langer.
“Even as an opening batsman in Test cricket, if you get a boundary early, you’re away. And that’s all about mindset and intent. ‘Boys, you get out there and you’ve got to be sharp, you’ve got to be busy … because if you do, you’ll be better and we’ll be better.’”
These are the “nuggets of gold” Hills mines for every day and pitches to Langer, who will then sell it to the players.
When Langer took over the reins of Australian cricket, he implored Hills to “think like a captain.”
Hence the nickname.
“He’s made me think a lot more. He’s challenged me to think like a captain would about plans for opposition players,” said former Tasmanian first-class star, Hills.
“I’ve enjoyed that.
“I guess you could call me the MC of our team meetings. I make sure the coaches are across 99 per cent of what I’m aiming to say. Sometimes Justin will leave it to me at times to (sell it). I’m generally the MC and then anyone can just jump in and say their piece and we go from there.”
In selection meetings the role of the analyst is just as profound. Hills is the invisible voice in the room influencing the decisions made by Langer, Trevor Hohns and George Bailey, particularly in T20.
“Moneyball” overhauled Major League Baseball by using sabermetrics to unearth diamonds in the rough, and numbers have also changed how T20 teams are picked.
To the naked eye, a bowler like Kane Richardson doesn’t necessarily stand out like a Mitchell Starc or Josh Hazlewood, yet the emphasis on analysis has spotlighted how crucial he is to the T20 bowling attack.
At the last World Cup, Australia stacked its side with top order brutes and it failed miserably. Numbers have taught selectors that T20 cricket is about picking specialist role players at every position in the order – hence why the likes of Marcus Stoinis and Chris Lynn are set to miss the World Cup.
“The numbers are definitely a key role in selection. I’ve never seen anything like it now the way selectors get together and (there’s a CA stats man) there advising them in regards to who suits what,” said Hills.
“It’s just pure numbers, but there’s always the gut feel that comes into it too. And that’ll have a big influence in what happens.”
Langer’s No.1 KPI as coach of the Australian team is throwing.
“Throwing back on top of the stumps,” said Langer.
“Because it reflects athleticism, but also attitude.”
Against South Africa in the T20 decider last week, Australia’s fielding efficiency was 88 per cent and catching 100 per cent. In the first ODI, numbers were down to a sloppy 73 per cent.
These numbers are determined by Hills, who analysis literally every throw made by Australian players in the field and gives it a rating.
Hills studies trends in T20 cricket about the effectiveness of off-pace deliveries for pace bowlers, and when is best to use your spinners during the 20 overs.
“It’s about pure match-ups in the shorter version of the game,” says Hills.
“It’s incredible how it’s evolved from subjective analysis of where the ball is landing, to now through Virtual Eye and Hawk Eye, you get pinpoint accuracy.”
Originally published as Cricket’s Moneyball man can lead Australia to break through T20 World Cup crown
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