Ashes 2023: Second Test at Lord’s shaping as being the most important match in recent history

Australia is 1-0 up against England and ‘Bazball’ but with Nathan Lyon’s whole series now in doubt, 2-0 looks a whole lot different from 1-1. That’s why this Test is so important to win.

Fasten your seatbelts folks, for what could become the most influential Ashes Test this century.

England’s entire cultural revolution depends on victory at Lord’s when play resumes for what shapes as a critical day three.

Otherwise Bazball, which is already under siege, could be completely ripped to shreds.

Lose and England will know they’re basically surrendering the Ashes at 2-0 down and will have to brace for six weeks of intense interrogation about their controversial attacking style.

If Australia can win this Test without Nathan Lyon, is that the end of Bazball? Picture: Ryan Pierse/Getty Images

But win this second Test, and suddenly England are almost favourites to take the series with Nathan Lyon – arguably the biggest difference between the two teams – in serious doubt for the rest of the series after suffering a calf strain.

If Pat Cummins can overcome the odds to marshal victory at Lord’s, the power of being 2-0 up should overwrite the loss of Lyon, who was on track to be the leading wicket-taker in the series.

But 1-1 would be an entirely different ball game and the pressure on rookie spinner Todd Murphy to fill the shoes of the man they call the Goat in an Ashes baptism of fire would be intense.

At 1-1, throwing Todd Murphy in to replace the injured Nathan Lyon would be a baptism of fire. Picture: Robert Cianflone/Getty Images

To a large extent it could all hinge in what happens at Lord’s over the next three nights.

It shapes as defining for two generations.

If Australia wins this Test, Cummins and his team will be on the cusp of clinching an achievement to crown this era as one of the great Australian Test sides.

If England can kick on with Harry Brook and Ben Stokes at the crease tonight, they can say the Baz Ball uprising is still alive and kicking.

But should England fluff their lines and go down in a screaming heap, they’re going to cop a serious pasting with the knives already being sharpened after last night’s mini collapse.

Former greats including Michael Vaughan, Kevin Pietersen and David Gower all blasted the ‘brainless’ half an hour on day two when Ollie Pope, Ben Duckett and Joe Root all threw their wickets away just when England had their foot on Australia’s throat.

England commentators were critical of the way Ollie Pope seemingly threw his wicket away. Picture: Stu Forster/Getty Images

That Duckett and Root departed after Lyon had limped off the field with an obviously significant injury made them all the more culpable.

Brook was lucky he didn’t follow after smashing one to Marnus Labuschagne at square leg, only for the shot to burst through his fingers.

England had the opportunity to grind Australia’s quicks into the dirt with a third Test starting next Thursday, just four days one after this one finishes.

Instead, ego and the Baz Ball mentality took over and almost drove them off the cliff.

It seems staggering that Root, who last night became the tenth highest run-scorer in the history of Test cricket, would so recklessly deviate from the method that has yielded him such an enviable record as a batsman.

At Edgbaston his careless second innings charging of Lyon robbed England of the chance to bat Australia out of the match, and at Lord’s he committed the unforgivable sin of leaving Australia unpunished for previously dismissing him off a Cameron Green front foot no ball.

There is a special sort of agony you can inflict on a team if you’ve been caught off a no ball. Every run seems like a little dagger through their heart.

But Root gave it back to Australia.

The mood is changing on Baz Ball, even with England now slight favourites to claim this definitive second Test.

An Australian side almost certainly without Lyon for the rest of this match, cannot afford another dropped catch like Labuschagne’s, or another wicket off a no ball disaster.

They must be efficient and clean if they’re to overcome the loss of such an influential bowler and cut England off before they can gain the ascendancy.

It could all come down to this Test. And it could all come down to tonight.

This is one of the biggest Ashes acid tests of all time.

Originally published as Ashes 2023: Second Test at Lord’s shaping as being the most important match in recent history