Constellation Cup: Diamonds’ centre pass to goal percentage drop-off handing New Zealand the advantage

Turnovers and silly errors have killed the Diamonds’ chances in the Constellation Cup, but there’s one number proving the Silver Ferns are now clearly on top of their Aussie rivals.

These are the numbers that underline the Diamonds’ sudden shift from world beaters to listing ship.

And the worrying thing for coach Stacey Marinkovich is there seems to be no single quick fix to alleviate the Aussies’ pain.

The Diamonds have conceded the Constellation Cup for the first time since 2021 – and just the third time since the competition’s inception in 2010 – after losing the first three games in the four-Test series against New Zealand’s Silver Ferns.

Liz Watson of Australia has been benched the last two games. Picture: Getty Images

As captain Liz Watson said after the Diamonds lost 61-43 in Perth on Sunday – their first defeat to the Ferns in Australia since 2019 – “turnovers and silly errors that we’re making across the board” have compounded to leave a side that is usually so disciplined, clutching at straws.

Watson is correct.

An examination of the Diamonds’ performances against the Ferns over the last 18 months shows that they have dipped in most of the key statistical categories, while the Kiwis have hit highs this series.

The combined effect has swung the balance overwhelmingly towards New Zealand, with the Diamonds landing in the dust like a kid at the bottom of a seesaw.

The centre pass to goal ratio is so crucial in netball because teams get an even share of possession.

Jamie-Lee Price and the Diamonds have struggled to convert their centre passes into goals throughout the series. Picture: Getty Images

Unlike other sports in which the team scored against restarts the game, the centre pass in netball is alternated after each score and converting your own possession is critical to the end result.

The magic number in terms of the centre pass to goal conversion for the Diamonds when playing the Ferns is 74 per cent.

Dip under this against New Zealand and the Diamonds don’t beat the Ferns – their last seven losses to New Zealand were all below the 74 ratio.

In both the Constellation Cup games lost in New Zealand in 2022 and 2023, and all three Con Cup matches so far this series, the Aussies have been below 74 per cent – or are turning fewer than three in every four centre passes into goals.

This season though, that’s been compounded by other uncharacteristic errors.

The Diamonds have turned over more ball (55 turnovers to 40), made fewer gains (17 to 28) and converted less of those precious gains into goals (9 to 21) than their opponents in across this series.

The result is the Diamonds have been outscored 188 to 145 goals across the three games so far.

New Zealand Players celebrate winning Game 3 and the Constellation Cup in Perth. Picture: Getty Images

The Ferns, too, are suddenly flying.

Captain Ameriaranne Ekenasio – an underrated star of the series – has made much of the honesty sessions her players underwent after a disappointing series against England just weeks ago that resulted in a 2-1 loss and the Ferns dropping from second to third in the world rankings.

“We knew we came in here as underdogs, and we knew that Australia is such a quality team, and this is the hardest 60 minutes that we ever play,” Ekenasio said of the toughest contest in the sport.

“We knew we almost had nothing to lose. Our backs are against the wall, and I think that’s inspired the fight to come out in us.”

Where they converted their centre passes at a rate between 73-75 per cent in the series against England – one they lost 2-1 but tied on goal aggregate – the Ferns’ centre pass to goal ratio has been greater than 80 in each of their games against the Diamonds, soaring to an incredible 88 per cent in game two in Auckland last week.

The Ferns have also shot incredibly well, with Nweke and Ekenasio hitting an incredible combined 91 per cent in each game of the series, while the Diamonds reached a high of 88 per cent in game two but dipped to a low of 78 per cent in game three.

Stacey Marinkovich talks to the players during the third quarter on Sunday. Picture: Getty Images

“The gap between our best and not is too far, the consistency around it,” Marinkovich said.

“It’s the unforced errors, and I guess the repeated nature of that in really close proximity, that just (causes) gaps.

“We lose a lot of energy, a lot of confidence, really quickly, and we become in chase mode.

“Full credit to the Silver Ferns, they’re playing exceptionally well and they’re putting pressure on all over the court – and it’s something that I guess we haven’t been able to bridge.”

Originally published as Constellation Cup: Diamonds’ centre pass to goal percentage drop-off handing New Zealand the advantage