NFL playoff guide: Which teams are the true Super Bowl contenders?

There might be 14 teams vying for the NFL’s richest prize, but less than half the field truly has a chance at glory. So who is actually in the mix to win next month’s Super Bowl?

It’s been a wild, sometimes vexing and definitely confusing NFL regular season, but after 4 months of games, it’s down to 14 teams vying for the right to call themselves Super Bowl champions.

However, just because you’re in the tournament doesn’t mean you have a real chance of taking home the hardware.

So who are the true contenders, and which teams are just happy to be part of it?

Who can stop the Chiefs from making history? Picture: Patrick T. Fallon / AFP

AFC

KANSAS CITY CHIEFS

15-1 with Patrick Mahomes starting this season, 2x defending champions, they were doubted heading into the post-season last year, never again.

Verdict: Contender

BUFFALO BILLS

The only team to take down the full-strength Chiefs, with likely MVP Josh Allen leading the way, if it’s 3rd down, Allen’s legs are the most valuable weapon in the sport, but can the defence hold up against the very best?

Verdict: Contender

BALTIMORE RAVENS

Remarkably, Lamar Jackson is having a definitively better season than his MVP-winning year in 2023, yet won’t win the award it seems. Lamar’s playoff history is an ugly sight, and with a poorer defence than last year, they’re up against it.

Verdict: Pretender

HOUSTON TEXANS

The Texans were one of the sexy pre-season Super Bowl picks after CJ Stroud’s extraordinary rookie season in 23/24. However, one of the worst offensive lines in football means there’s no runway for this offense to get off the ground.

Verdict: Pretender

LOS ANGELES CHARGERS

Jim Harbaugh has delivered on the promise to bring change to the Chargers, but the decimation of the team from the previous regime means there’s still not enough talent to help Justin Herbert lift them into the biggest game of the year.

Verdict: Pretender

PITTSBURGH STEELERS

Midway through the season the Steelers were running away with the AFC North, but with both Russell Wilson and the defence coming back to the pack, it looks like another year where the Steelers make it and are bounced in the first week.

Verdict: Pretender

DENVER BRONCOS

They have overachieved all year thanks to a great offensive line, great coaching and an improved defense, but watch Bo Nix closely, then close your eyes and picture him holding the Lombardi trophy. Can’t see it can you?

Verdict: Pretender

NFC

DETROIT LIONS

The Lions have made the running in the NFC all season, and a month ago, looked like the team to beat across the entire league. Now, a slate of injuries have caught up to a volatile defence, can they hold up enough? We know there’s no drama with the offense.

Verdict: Contender

PHILADELPHIA EAGLES

The Eagles have struck a great balance, deadly on offense on the ground and through the air, and a much-improved defense. The best case against them might just be the chaos their own coach brings. Tough look.

Verdict: Contender

TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS

Similarly to the Cincinatti Bengals, the Bucs have a lethal offense, orchestrated by Baker Mayfield, but the sub-standard defence won’t be able to do enough to take them all the way. Could spring an upset if they make it to the second round though.

Verdict: Pretender

LOS ANGELES RAMS

There’s two coaches in the NFL that know what it’s like to recently win a Super Bowl. Andy Reid, who leads the dynastic Chiefs and Sean McVay, coach of the Rams. One of the hottest teams in the league, and the youngsters on defence are coming to the fore. They’ll be in the mix.

Verdict: Contender

MINNESOTA VIKINGS

Sam Darnold at the helm of a 14/15 win team in the year 2025, no it’s true we swear. Not only is the journeyman at the helm, he’s thriving under Kevin O’Connell. They’re right in the mix for what would be a fairytale story.

Verdict: Contender

WASHINGTON COMMANDERS

Another great story, with Jayden Daniels lifting up a franchise tormented for the entire century thus far. Daniels has made play after play when it counts most, yet it will likely not be enough to lead the Commanders on a deep playoff run.

Verdict: Pretender

GREEN BAY PACKERS

Like the Texans, the Packers were a popular pre-season smokey, and are one of the better teams in the NFL for sure. However, out of their six losses this season, five have come to either the Lions, Vikings or Eagles. The definition of pretender.

Verdict: Pretender

Originally published as NFL playoff guide: Which teams are the true Super Bowl contenders?