Do the odds like Nikola Jokic and his Denver Nuggets to close out Game 5 of the NBA Finals over Jimmy Butler’s Miami Heat?

What do the odds think of Denver’s chances of beating Miami in Game 5 of the Finals to take out its first NBA title?

Jimmy Butler of the Miami Heat dribbles against Jamal Murray of the Denver Nuggets during Game Four of the 2023 NBA Finals. Picture: Mike Ehrmann/Getty Images

The NBA Finals featuring the Denver Nuggets and Miami Heat continue with Game 5 at Ball Arena in Denver on Tuesday 10.35am Australia time.

The Finals have so far delivered some incredible performances – Duncan Robinson aka Jimmy Neutron But With An Office Job (s/o NBA Straya) in Game 2, the record-making dual 30-point triple doubles from Nikola Jokic and Jamal Murray in Game 3, Aaron Gordon’s Game 4 –and a few that might prompt ‘missing’ posters (Michael Porter Jr and Max Strus going completely MIA).

Do Jimmy Butler and Miami have one last crack? Or does Denver win its maiden NBA title?

DENVER NUGGETS: $1.28 (via TopSport)

MIAMI HEAT: $4.10 (via bet365)

Ball Arena, Colorado 10.40am

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Denver heads home up 3-1 on Miami and on the brink of its first ever NBA championship.

Jimmy Butler and his Miami squad won a tight Game 2 in Denver – thanks to a 36 point fourth quarter – but the Nuggets won the other three games by 11, 15 and 13 points.

The one clear trend for each of the Finals games has been the total points going under as all four games have hit under its total point line except Game 2: that game was trending under before Miami decided to not miss basically any shots in the fourth quarter (starting 9 of 10 from the field).

At home in the playoffs Denver is averaging 113.5 points and allowing only 103.1, while Miami puts up 111.2 on the road and gives up 111, but across the four games of the finals, the total points have hit 197, 219, and 203 (the past two games).

Possessions and points have proven scarce: if either team’s offence gets off the hook, this could go over - especially considering the Nuggets have gone over 104 teams points each game - but with such low totals in the prior four games, it’s tough to back it happening.

• Total Points - Under 209.5: $1.88 (via TopSport)

Nikola Jokic of the Denver Nuggets controls the ball against Bam Adebayo of the Miami Heat during Game Four of the 2023 NBA Finals. Picture: Mike Ehrmann/Getty Images

GOLDEN NUGGETS

On the verge of cementing himself as a Top 25 player in NBA history with an elusive title, two-time MVP Nikola Jokic is averaging 30.1 points, 13.3 rebounds and 9.8 assists per game.

In elimination games so far these playoffs Jokic is putting up 33 points, 13 boards and 10.7 assists: with a title on the line, look for him to go big again and lock away Finals MVP in the process.

• Nikola Jokic - 55+ Points, Rebounds, Assists: $2.20 (via Betr)

Joker’s star offsider Jamal Murray is putting up 23/5/10 in the Finals while shooting 46.1% from the floor and 41.7% from 3 and his role as point of the Nuggets spear has been crucial to Denver’s offence keeping its head above water against the Heat defence,

• Betr Feat. SGM: J. Murray to get 20+ points, 5+ assists & 5+ rebounds - $1.94

Kentavious Caldwell-Pope’s experience should see him unfazed by the deciding game hype: the Notorious KCP hit two threes in Game 4 and went 12/27 from 3 in the WCF. He should get a couple of good looks again in Game 5.

Kentavious Caldwell-Pope - Over 1.5 3s made: $2.10 (via bet365)

Jimmy Butler #22 and Duncan Robinson #55 of the Miami Heat react during Game Four of the 2023 NBA Finals. Picture: Mike Ehrmann/Getty Images

COLD HEAT

Miami’s Jimmy Butler has had a quiet Finals (21.8 points, 5 rebounds and 6.8 assists a game) but hasn’t been helped by some of the shooting performances from his teammates: looking at you, Gabe Vincent and Max Strus.

In three series deciding games so far these playoffs Butler had 28/7/6 against Boston, 24/8/4 to knock out the Knicks and 42/8/4 to send Milwaukee packing. If Miami are to have a chance of keeping the series alive, it will rest on Butler’s shoulders.

• Betr Feat. SGM: Heat +14.5 point spread, Over 203.5 points, J. Butler to get 20+ points and 5+ rebounds - $3

The most consistent member of the Heat has been big man Bam Adebayo, who’s ripped off 22.3 points, 12.5 rebounds and 3.8 assists a game in the Finals.

• Bam Adebayo - 35+ Points, Rebounds, Assists: $1.91 (via Betr)

After a superstar turn in the ECF where he averaged 19.3 points a game, Caleb Martin has crashed back to earth in the Finals battling an illness to hit only 6.8 an outing. He’s still hit at least one three a game and the Heat will put up plenty of threes to try and stay in this and Martin has shot 44% from deep these playoffs.

• Caleb Martin - 3+ 3s: $5.25 (via bet365)

PREVIOUS NBA FINALS DECIDING GAME MARGINS

• 2022 - Warriors - Celtics Game 6: 13 points
• 2021 - Bucks over Suns - Game 6: 7 points
• 2020 - Lakers over Heat - Game 6: 13 points
• 2019 - Raptors over Warriors - Game 6: 4 points
• 2018 - Warriors over Cavs - Game 4: 23 points
• 2017 - Warriors over Cavs - Game 5: 9 points

WHO WINS? 

Denver is 43-8 at home (31-19-1 against the line) and has won 11 of its last 12 on its home court.

The final game of the last six NBA Finals has, on average, not been close: from the Warriors in 2022 back to the Warriors in 2017, the deciding game of the championship has been won by an average 11.5 points. The only one that was really close was Game 6 of Raptors-Warriors in 2019 (4 points).

Denver has been the better team over the course of the Finals: except for Miami’s out-of-body fourth quarter experience in Game 2, the Nuggets have dominated.

With that dominant home court advantage and amazing record against the line, it would be no surprise if Denver are crowned NBA champs after Game 5.

BEST BET: Denver -8.5 $1.89 (via Betr) 

Jamal Murray of the Denver Nuggets dribbles against Jimmy Butler of the Miami Heat during Game Four of the 2023 NBA Finals. Picture: Mike Ehrmann/Getty Images

JAYMZ CLEMENTS’ NBA FINALS GAME 5 SAME GAME MULTI

• Nikola Jokic - 25+ points

Joker is averaging over 30 in the playoffs and has hit at least 25 in 9 of his last 12 games.

• Nikola Jokic - 12+ rebounds

Jokic has also had 12+ boards in nine of the last 14.

• Jamal Murray - 20+ points

Murray had only 15 in Game 4, but has hit 20+ in seven of his last nine.

• Jamal Murray - 10+ assists

Jamal has also has 10 or more assists in all four Finals games.

• Jimmy Butler - 25+ points

Jimmy had 25 and 28 in Games 3 and 4.

• Jimmy Butler - 5+ assists

Butler has also had 5+ dimes in 10 of his last 11 playoff games.

• Bam Adebayo - 20+ points

Bam has gone over 20 in each of the four Finals games so far.

• Bam Adebayo - 8+ rebounds.

Adebayo has also had at last 9 rebounds in each Finals game.

EIGHT-LEG SGM @ $13 (via Betr)

[all odds as of June 12]

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Originally published as Do the odds like Nikola Jokic and his Denver Nuggets to close out Game 5 of the NBA Finals over Jimmy Butler’s Miami Heat?