Wreck-It Ralph: Every Victorian club ranked based on how important their trade period is
The Lions are only getting better, while the Swans are the masters of finding trade value. So how do the Victorian teams catch up? Jon Ralph ranks the importance of every Vic team’s off-season.
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The Brisbane Lions are about to playoff for a Grand Final, then bring in potential No. 1 pick Levi Ashcroft as a 15-year midfielder, top-30 academy pick Sam Marshall and Keidean Coleman returns from injury in round 1 next year.
It’s another reality check for the 10 Victorian clubs that will watch on this Saturday as two sides full of brilliant young matchwinners play off for the 2024 premiership.
Waste the 2024 off-season and they will fall further behind.
Nail it with quality decisions – like Sydney’s cheap-as-chips acquisitions of Brodie Grundy and James Jordon – and they can make waves in 2025.
Here are the 10 Victorian clubs ranked on how important the trade-draft-free agency period as well as how challenging that period will be for them to execute those trades and manoeuvres.
1. RICHMOND
IMPORTANCE OF THE 2024 OFF-SEASON: 10
CHALLENGES OF NAILING THE OFF-SEASON: 10
This is the biggest six-week period for Richmond since the end of 2016, when the Tigers kept Damien Hardwick, tweaked their game plan, launched the cultural overhaul and then won three flags in four years.
Richmond must maximise every trade opportunity, find some more experience and then nail the bounty of draft picks before Tasmania hits the competition in 2028.
Richmond has picks 1, 21, 29, 39 and 41 and will trade Shai Bolton, Liam Baker and Dan Rioli. It isn’t enough for the Tigers to collect a raft of mid-range picks.
In the 2020 draft Richmond took Josh Gibcus (pick 9), Tom Brown (17), Tyler Sonsie (28), Sam Banks (29) and Judson Clarke (30) and only the first pair are sure to be in the club’s next finals side.
On face value, Rioli isn’t worth pick 6, but if Richmond can’t extract it from the Suns – even giving a later pick back – it will be disappointed, given he is contracted.
Bolton will eventually get to Fremantle, which has picks 9 and 10.
Richmond players believed he ran his own race while he believed the game plan wasn’t clear enough.
So by round 1 next year Adem Yze and new coaching acquisition Blake Caracella will want an absolutely crystal-clear game plan identifiable to all.
Richmond can’t trade Tom Lynch – their forward line would be non-existent without him – and selling memberships might be impossible.
Jack Graham is a chance to stay, but has some interest from South Australia-based clubs given he’s a local and wavering on whether to move to Perth to join a WA team. But in a draft where the No. 1 pick is as open as at any time in the past decade Richmond has so much to do. And has so much at stake.
2. ST KILDA
IMPORTANCE OF 2024 OFF-SEASON: 9
CHALLENGES OF NAILING THE OFF-SEASON: 9
St Kilda didn’t need to put out a statement clarifying its chase for Zach Merrett even though it diverted from its stated position of investing in the draft again.
The statement turned out to be gibberish anyway and St Kilda shouldn’t apologise for planning for the draft while also sounding out A-plus grade talent elsewhere.
It can do both at the same time.
But the chase for Merrett is another reminder the Saints desperately lack true matchwinners.
And they might only get younger.
Consider the potential drain of talent – Seb Ross, Josh Battle, Brad Crouch, Tim Membrey plus back-up ruck Tom Campbell and rebounder Riley Bonner.
It is why St Kilda has so much ahead of it in coming weeks given the pressure will be on from round 1 next year, even after winning five of the last six games to eke out 11 total wins.
Clearly some of those players were only there for depth, but Battle leaves a huge hole in defence and Membrey has kicked at least 30 goals in seven of the past nine seasons.
He is considering his options (Melbourne is one) after the club made clear he wasn’t central to their plans.
Crouch is working through a potential retirement settlement, which is why Jack Macrae’s acquisition makes sense. He’s never been quick, but he’s a ball-hunter and as recently as 2022 he averaged 30 touches, 6.4 clearances and 3.8 tackles.
But if Josh Battle’s departure doesn’t trigger first-round compensation their draft hand might be only 7, 21 (the compo pick), 24 and 43. They would have to give up 43 for Macrae and would need to trade for Jayden Laverde if he did cross from Essendon.
So it’s a good, but not exceptional, draft hand for a club with so much work to do.
3. MELBOURNE
IMPORTANCE OF 2024 OFF-SEASON: 8
CHALLENGES OF NAILING THE OFF-SEASON: 9
Melbourne has at least stemmed the bleeding.
Barring a shock turnaround, Kosi Pickett, Clayton Oliver and Christian Petracca are staying.
But this list wasn’t good enough for finals so it needs immediate improvement given it didn’t hold up playing the contest-and-defence game or the more expansive running game Simon Goodwin trialled earlier in the year.
Melbourne believes its key forward trio in Jacob Van Rooyen, Daniel Turner and the re-signed Harrison Petty can work and is adamant Bayley Fritsch is going nowhere, despite some talk about rivals asking questions of him.
But Alex Neal-Bullen (likely to be traded for the pick 25 the Demons handed over for Shane McAdam last year) leaves a significant hole.
Koltyn Tholstrup is a real talent, but he’s not the elite-running half forward who makes the forward line work like ANB did so often.
Melbourne asked about Jake Waterman, but he will sign a four-year extension in coming weeks.
Tim Membrey would be a low-risk, high-upside free agency option.
Would Collingwood’s uncontracted Nathan Kreuger – with his forward-ruck qualities – have any appeal as a back-up for Gawn, given they had to ruck Petty and Van Rooyen when the Melbourne captain went down this year.
Dan Houston won’t reconsider after deciding he wasn’t interested in a trade to the Demons.
So Melbourne has as much trade capital as anyone out there – pick 5 and a future first-rounder. Expect the Demons to make a splash at some stage given that No. 5 draft pick could still secure the best player in the 2024 national draft.
4. COLLINGWOOD
IMPORTANCE OF 2024 OFF-SEASON: 8
CHALLENGES OF NAILING THE OFF-SEASON: 10
Collingwood has clear list holes and a relatively poor draft hand – picks 33, 48 and 51.
Coach Craig McRae is on record about wanting a key forward, the club must replace half back John Noble and they desperately need a full back to replace Nathan Murphy.
They will likely get something around the Suns’ pick 26 for Noble and their future first-rounder is on the table. But they also want to get into this draft to secure some key position talent, so the value of that future first-rounder will only stretch so far.
It’s a heck of a long laundry list without much trade collateral. Especially since they don’t really have much by way of talent anyone else might want to poach apart from Noble.
It’s why their late entry into the Harry Perryman sweepstakes makes a heap of sense given his free agency status. He won’t come cheap – likely five million over the life of a six-year contract – but the Pies do have available cap space and he doesn’t cost a pick.
Could they offer that future first-rounder and 26 for Dan Houston? They don’t have anything else to give up.
A Sam Frost type would suit their needs very well given Darcy Moore is the interceptor and Jeremy Howe is 34.
None of it gets them a key forward, with McRae explicit about his needs post-round 24 as he said: “ “I’d love a key forward. So if you know any just out there that want to come play for Collingwood, let me know, but they’re hard to find.”
Then there is the midfield, with Steele Sidebottom likely in his last year, Finn Macrae not the answer, Scott Pendlebury 36 and Tom Mitchell facing a big summer after plantar fascia issues and 32 in May.
The Pies aren’t going anywhere – they still won 12 games (and had two draws) in a down year. But can they pull a rabbit out of the hat? They might need to.
5. NORTH MELBOURNE
IMPORTANCE OF 2024 OFF-SEASON: 7
CHALLENGES OF NAILING THE OFF-SEASON: 8
North Melbourne can’t be mediocre forever. As Alastair Clarkson said at the club’s best-and-fairest, six years of ordinary finishes is enough.
For the record, those finishes are 17th this year, 17th, 18th, 18th, 17th and 12th.
North Melbourne finally has a ruckman in Tristan Xerri and a midfield that could one day be elite. But there are so many holes – a second key forward (Callum Coleman-Jones is on nearly $500,000 a year and hasn’t cut it), rebounding defenders (Zac Fisher didn’t make the top 10 in the best-and-fairest, Luke McDonald squeezed into ninth), more small forwards even though Paul Curtis was a find with 30 goals.
Pay Luke Parker whatever you want to get him to the club as a leader and mid-forward because even turning 32 in October he might have three quality years left.
People are scoffing at the Jack Darling acquisition – and they should given he’s a 191cm forward who has lost his leap. He took a career low 3.2 marks (and 0.9 contested marks) but it shows how impossible it is to get quality players to Arden Street.
The Roos are open to giving up a future first-rounder for Dan Houston, but when you haven’t finished out of the bottom two in the past five years that shapes as a recipe for disaster.
Especially when Houston turns 28 in May and might only give them five seasons for a very, very likely top four pick.
6. ESSENDON
IMPORTANCE OF NAILING THE OFF-SEASON: 7
CHALLENGES OF 2024 OFF-SEASON: 6
Watched the Geelong-Brisbane prelim with two Dons supporters.
Their view – only four players are untradeable, hold the line on one-year contracts for Jake Stringer and Jayden Laverde.
One opinion stood out – Mason Redman is only the latest in a long line of players to sign fat contracts then underachieve from then onwards.
Darcy Parish and Peter Wright also fall into the bracket, while Jordan Ridley has an injury alibi, with Jade Gresham and Ben McKay arriving on big deals but failing to inspire.
There is a view at Essendon there isn’t enough room in the forward line for all of Peter Wright, Jake Stringer, Kyle Langford and Nate Caddy.
Caddy is the future and Langford is a focal point so letting go of Stringer might cause some heartburn, but it would allow the Dons to back in Wright, who did kick 53 goals in 2022.
It is his only career season with over 31 goals.
Here is the tough question for Brad Scott. Do you see Wright in a premiership side?
If not, there will be clubs who would trade for him so do the research, make the tough call and then back him or trade him.
The Dons will secure livewire half forward Isaac Kako after their initial draft pick at No.8.
They can use their ample cap space to go to the market but pick 8 is a lovely spot to pick in this draft _ there are key talls, key forwards, running backs.
So there are decisions ahead on Stringer, Laverde and Dylan Shiel plus what to do with that No. 8 draft pick.
7. CARLTON
IMPORTANCE OF NAILING THE OFF-SEASON: 5
CHALLENGES OF 2024 OFF-SEASON: 6
The Blues want a bit of everything – take their first pick, trade a future first-rounder into this draft to at least have a lash at Dan Houston, and secure their father-son duo Ben and Lucas Camporeale.
The absolute quality on show in this year’s draft means the Camporeale boys will likely drift out of the top 30, so matching points isn’t a concern.
The Blues will secure Nick Haynes as a free agent, and might get some picks back if Matt Kennedy or Lewis Young can find a new home.
But as much as Houston would be a great addition it will be challenging to get a club to hand them a pick early enough in this draft to satisfy the Power on Houston.
Especially with the market likely to be set by the Roos offering a future first-rounder, which would be vastly superior, even if Houston hasn’t met North Melbourne.
So at the very least the Blues will get a quality kid at pick 11, the Camporeale boys and clear some list cloggers. It’s a good start to 2025.
8. GEELONG
IMPORTANCE OF NAILING THE OFF-SEASON: 5
CHALLENGES OF 2024 OFF-SEASON: 5
Chris Scott’s first mission is sitting down with Sam De Koning to explain exactly why he didn’t select him for the preliminary final.
With Toby Conway likely the No. 1 ruckman next year and the defence well set, he will find his way back into the side but isn’t the priority he might have believed he once was.
He will have clubs coming for him hard in the trade period.
Geelong will of course say no, but he is out of contract next year.
Bailey Smith will get to the Cats, who have picks 15 and 35. They will haggle on that deal all trade period with the Dogs, but in truth that is about a fair deal.
No.15 will turn into something closer to 20, and the Dogs will play hard ball but also realise Smith is uncontracted so could go anywhere. Knowing Geelong they will be desperate to take some later picks in this draft, so the challenge is getting back into the draft.
9. HAWTHORN
IMPORTANCE OF NAILING THE OFF-SEASON: 5
CHALLENGES OF 2024 OFF-SEASON: 3
Hawthorn is already charging up the ladder and was able to put together an elite defence that will now only get better with the addition of Tom Barrass and Josh Battle.
The Battle deal is effectively done because he’s an unrestricted free agent and the trade price is the only real issue on Barrass.
The Eagles want two first-rounders but might take the Hawks pick 13 and then swap their future second-round pick with Hawthorn’s future first.
Those two picks might not be too far apart.
There are decisions ahead on retaining Denver Grainger-Barras and the contracted Sam Frost but this is a relatively no-fuss trade period.
10. WESTERN BULLDOGS
IMPORTANCE OF NAILING THE OFF-SEASON: 4
CHALLENGES OF 2024 OFF-SEASON: 3
Bailey Smith and Jack Macrae are gone, and Caleb Daniel has a decision to make.
But as much as list boss Sam Power will negotiate hard, pick 43 is a fair selection to secure for Macrae given he is due so much money in the next three years.
If he can secure two picks – maybe 15 and a future second, or 15 and 35 from Geelong – then he should move on.
The Dogs will stockpile picks in a quality draft, save $1.5 million in cap space for 2025 extensions for Marcus Bontempelli, Ed Richards and Sam Darcy, and move on.
Originally published as Wreck-It Ralph: Every Victorian club ranked based on how important their trade period is
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