We look at who is still in the race for September and which clubs will play finals
THE RUN HOME: NO one wants to see Nick Riewoldt retire. So what will it take for the Saints to give Roo a September farewell? See every club’s path to the finals here.
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THERE are just three weeks left in the 2017 home-and-away season.
A thrilling finish to the year is on the cards with as many as 11 teams still in finals contention.
HAVE YOUR SAY: PREDICT THE END OF YEAR LADDER HERE
BAROMETER: FINALS CONTENDERS COP UNTIMELY INJURIES
MRP VERDICT: HAWKINS, GRUNDY FACE TWO-MATCH BANS
SUPERLADDER: DEES ON SLIDE AS FINALS FIGHT HEATS UP
After Round 20 Melbourne slipped out of the top eight but a favourable run home could see him in September while reigning premiers the Western Bulldogs are still hanging on.
Meanwhile, after Port Adelaide’s Showdown loss, the top four looks set with Geelong, GWS and Richmond battling for a home qualifying final.
1. ADELAIDE (58pts 141.5%)
R21 Essendon (ES) W
R22 Sydney (AO) W
R23 West Coast (S) W
Amazing that the Crows continue to tick all the boxes, as they are the only club in the competition without a top-10 draft pick on their list. But Brad Crouch stepped up on the weekend, Eddie Betts and Charlie Cameron bring the speed and two potential departures, Jake Lever and Mitch McGovern, are ruling the air. A chance to rest some key players for the Round 23 trip to Perth if they can’t lose top spot.
2. GWS GIANTS (52pts 115.3%)
R21 Western Bulldogs (ES) W
R22 West Coast (Spo) W
R23 Geelong (SS) W
They flicked a switch in a big way against Melbourne at the weekend, a reminder how quickly and heavily they can score when their running game is going. The bonus is they also dialled up their tackling and defensive pressure, something not usually a strong point. Challenging run home, but they are good enough.
3. RICHMOND (52pts 112.0%)
R21 Geelong (SS) W
R22 Fremantle (S) W
R23 St Kilda (ES) W
Who would have thought at this time last year the Tigers would book a double chance in the finals within 12 months? Paul Roos is convinced their game stacks up in September. High pressure, great defence, and the Dusty factor. The lid will be off if they can topple the Cats this weekend for only the second time since 2001.
4. GEELONG (50pts 115.1%)
R21 Richmond (SS) L
R22 Collingwood (MCG) W
R23 GWS Giants (SS) L
We’ve questioned all year how the Cats would go without “Dangerwood” and now we are about to find out. Joel Selwood’s ankle surgery is a huge setback, but you know he’ll be working around the clock over the next month to get back. Rival clubs think they are vulnerable in a big way. Second-tier midfield types have to perform heroics in the next three weeks or more.
5. PORT ADELAIDE (44pts 122.5%)
R21 Collingwood (AO) W
R22 Western Bulldogs (Ballarat) L
R23 Gold Coast (AO) W
Pretenders. They have done well whacking teams below them this year, but Ken Hinkley’s men have been found out against the big boys. It’s a soft run home, so doubt we will learn much before finals. They need a big scalp in September to prove us wrong.
6. SYDNEY (44pts 117.2%)
R21 Fremantle (SCG) W
R22 Adelaide (AO) L
R23 Carlton (SCG) W
Don’t know there would be many sides sticking up their hands to play the Swans in September. They were awesome against the Cats and have the forward firepower to take the game away from any rival. The percentage should get a boost against the Dockers and Blues. The only query is the petrol tank. They will have to win the flag the long way after a slow start to the season.
7. WESTERN BULLDOGS (44pts 101.1%)
R21 GWS Giants (ES) L
R22 Port Adelaide (Ballarat) W
R23 Hawthorn (ES) W
It feels like the wheel has turned a little for the Doggies, and Friday night’s clash against the Giants is huge. There’s some nice history here and the Giants will be wound up to try and avenge last year’s preliminary final. Easton Wood’s hamstring injury could finish him for the season and scoring remains an issue. Still, who could discount Luke Beveridge’s men after last year.
8. ESSENDON (40pts 107.3%)
R21 Adelaide (ES) L
R22 Gold Coast (MS) L
R23 Fremantle (ES) W
Needs to win its last three to seal a finals spot. It doesn’t get much harder than Adelaide this week, especially with Joe Daniher under a fitness cloud with a sore knee. The Suns are streaky but usually tough to beat on their home deck. Fans will most likely give the season a huge tick regardless of whether they make finals.
9. WEST COAST (40pts 105.0%)
R21 Carlton (S) W
R22 GWS Giants (Spo) L
R23 Adelaide (S) L
Probably this year’s biggest disappointment, the Eagles face an important exchange period. One of the toughest runs home, including games against GWS and Adelaide, but knocked off the Giants with a last-minute miracle from Nic Naitanui last year. Unlikely lightning strikes twice.
10. MELBOURNE (40pts 104.8%)
R21 St Kilda (MCG) W
R22 Brisbane Lions (MCG) W
R23 Collingwood (MCG) W
The fixture is kind to the Demons from here and if they’re to take a significant step forward this year, they need to win all three games. Their clearance work is an issue, and has worsened since Max Gawn returned, while the defenders are susceptible to getting beaten one-on-one in the air. Time to turn it on, Dees.
11. ST KILDA (40pts 97.3%)
R21 Melbourne (MCG) L
R22 North Melbourne (ES) W
R23 Richmond (MCG) L
Low percentage hurts in such a tight season and the last-minute mistakes in the loss to Port were costly. The Saints were desperate to make finals this year but perhaps their midfield doesn’t have enough weapons just yet. Richmond will be keen to show up in Round 23 after it was blown apart by the Saints last month.
JAY CLARK’S FINAL LADDER PREDICTION
1. Adelaide 70
2. GWS Giants 64
3. Richmond 64
4. Geelong 54
5. Port Adelaide 52
6. Sydney 52
7. Melbourne 52
8. Western Bulldogs 52
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9. Essendon 44
10. West Coast 44
11. St Kilda 44
12. Hawthorn 42
13. Collingwood 34
14. Fremantle 32
15. Gold Coast 28
16. Brisbane Lions 24
17. North Melbourne 20
18. Carlton 20
POSSIBLE WEEK 1 FINALS
Qualifying Final: Adelaide (1) v Geelong (4) (AO)
Qualifying Final: GWS Giants (2) v Richmond (3) (SP)
Elimination Final: Port Adelaide (5) v Western Bulldogs (8) (AO)
Elimination Final: Sydney (6) v Melbourne (7) (SCG)
Originally published as We look at who is still in the race for September and which clubs will play finals
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