AFL trade analysis: Jay Clark crunches the numbers of draft picks’ value

Clubs are digging in over their top-10 draft pick demands in this year’s trade period. Jay Clark crunches the numbers to show why.

The recruiter called it the missing piece of the trade-time discussion.

When clubs sit down for weeks and sometimes months of argy-bargy over players’ worth and pick swaps, there is no doubt the value is largely in the eye of the beholder.

And with three days left in the trade period it will be interesting to see who blinks when it comes specifically to the tension surrounding deals for Josh Dunkley, Luke Jackson and Rory Lobb, in particular, as list managers stand their ground over trade demands.

And for so long, the gold standard on some of these big moves has been first-round draft picks. Or in Adam Treloar, Dylan Shiel and Jake Lever’s case, it has been two first-round draft picks (with other later choices coming back).

But as one veteran talent-spotter pointed out, there is a growing belief there are two significant tiers within the first-round of the draft.

There is the golden band inside the first 10 selections where clubs can target marquee players, and then the more risky ground between 11-20.

The territory in the teens is where expectations can still be mighty high because the general perception is that players taken within the first-round should be stars of the competition.

News Corp analysed the results of the six drafts between 2012-2017 to assess the general output and status of players taken inside the first 25 selections.

Based on average games played, the groups of players taken with seven of the first nine picks have all averaged more than 100 games.

Some clubs believe there is now a golden tier within the first round of the draft. (Photo by Paul Kane/Getty Images)

But from picks 10-25, only one selection (pick 18) has averaged more than the ton.

Similarly, picks 1-10 have generated 23 All-Australian selections and 21 best-and-fairest wins, but picks 11-20 have yielded eight All-Australian blazers and eight club champion awards.

Picks 21-25 are not dissimilar with four All Australians and five best-and-fairests from the 2012-17 group.

Clearly, when it comes to picks in the 20s and right through the second round expectations mellow.

But when asked where the real divide exists in a general sense, one club’s talent boss said the biggest difference between bona fide superstars and players with potential was around pick 10.

There is a drop-off, generally-speaking, when you get to double digits.

Which is perhaps why clubs such as Melbourne are digging in over Jackson and demanding at least one pick inside the top-10 in its deal with Fremantle for the young ruck.

It was the single-figure picks which provide the generational talent, they said.

“If you go back over the drafts it’s pretty clear where the bulk of the superstar talent comes from and that is inside the top-10,” the recruiter said.

“After that it does become more difficult when you are drafting players with picks in the teens because there is definitely more of an unknown element.

“You are talking about those players as first-round picks and clearly the expectations are pretty high inside the top-20, but would clubs rather one pick inside the top 10 or two later ones in the teens?

“It’s an interesting question.

Clayton Oliver is a prime example of how dominant a top ten pick can be. Picture: Michael Willson/AFL Photos via Getty Images

“Clubs will always back themselves to find good players but there is a bit of difference between a first-round pick inside the top-10 and a first-round pick in the teens.

“It’s not something that gets talked about a lot but I think history backs it up.”

Geelong has latched on to pick seven as part of the Jack Bowes deal from Gold Coast and have told clubs including Collingwood it has no intention of trading it.

If the recruiter whispers are correct, Geelong want local tough-nut Jhye Clark with the Suns’ pick.

It is the Cats’ earliest pick since it took inspirational Geelong premiership captain Joel Selwood in 2006 having gone down a different path to most clubs with their list management space to win the 2022 premiership.

The key planks of Geelong’s premiership team in Selwood, Patrick Dangerfield and Jeremy Cameron were top-10 talents in their draft (Cameron was a GWS pre-selection).

But where the Cats have bucked the trend is taking players from different means such as free agency and the VFL without a big glut of early choices like Melbourne and Western Bulldogs did.

Melbourne did it when it took Christian Petracca, Clayton Oliver and Angus Brayshaw and then more recently when they claimed Jackson and Kysaiah Pickett.

Likewise the Bulldogs had enormous success claiming Marcus Bontempelli, Jackson Macrae and, for a short period, Jake Stringer when he became an All-Australian in 2015.

While the Cats have shown clubs can build teams through other methods, it helps to hit the nail on the head with the top-10 calls.

West Coast has pick two and could shuffle back to pick eight (from Port Adelaide) in the Jason Horne-Francis deal, and could also end up with pick 12 from GWS Giants.

The Giants have five picks in the top-20 and are set to bundle some up to march up the order including potentially swapping pick three for North Melbourne’s pick one.

News Corp selected the 2012-17 group to exclude players still in their prime development phase throughout their first four seasons.

In that 2012-17 band, pick 18 was the clear outlier with a 125-game per player average, second to only pick three (127 games) from that six-year period.

Pick 18 has delivered some outstanding players in Brodie Grundy, who is set on bolstering Melbourne’s premiership push next season after being booted out by Collingwood, as well as Isaac Heeney and Jade Gresham, who has been hard-hit by injury.

But if that selection has been a happy hunting ground throughout the 2012-17 period, others have not been so fruitful.

Pick 12 (average 54 games per player) has been hit (Charlie Curnow and Jy Simpkin) and miss (Kristian Jaksch, Ben Lennon and Corey Ellis) while Adelaide’s Darcy Fogarty improved sharply this year.

Picks 15- 21 have also been tricky and are yet to deliver an All-Australian or best and fairest winner (other than 2018), although West Coast’s Oscar Allen, Bulldogs’ Tim English and young Lion Zac Bailey are stars already.

Originally published as AFL trade analysis: Jay Clark crunches the numbers of draft picks’ value