AFL 2024: The one thing which can stop the Crows contending, how Cats rebound after disappointing 2023

Every year, one club makes the leap from outside the eight to become a serious flag contender. Will that be the Crows in 2024? Premiership skipper Mark Bickley has his say on why – and why not.

The platform has slowly been raised, so now the Crows just have to launch.

Seemingly every year, one club jumps from outside the eight to become a serious flag contender.

Last year, the GWS Giants leapt from 16th to a preliminary final.

In 2022, Collingwood did the same from 17th.

Smaller leaps have been common too – Melbourne finished ninth in 2020 and won it all in 2021.

After missing the top eight thanks to a bungled goal umpire call, Adelaide might just be in prime position to be the Steve Hooker of 2024 and vault towards the top.

Dual premiership captain Mark Bickley sees the Crows as a finalist this year but is still cautious about Matthew Nicks’ defence.

“If you look across the ground that is probably the area that they are vulnerable so that is a bit of a must-watch early in the year,” he said.

No team scored more than the Crows last year but Adelaide ranked ninth for points against and 14th for points conceded from stoppages.

Nicks will be forced to cobble together enough of a defence around Jordon Butts, Mark Keane, top draftee Daniel Curtin, returning Nick Murray and Josh Worrell.

Jordon Butts in action against the Eagles last week. Picture: Mark Brake/Getty Images

“I know they have spent a lot of time on their team defence and trying to defend better across the whole ground and I think if they improve that by a couple of goals and are able to maintain their scoring power, it gives them a huge chance to pick up the three games they need to consolidate in the top-eight,” Bickley said.

The Crows have enough scoring at the other end, with the indefatigable Taylor Walker and young stars Josh Rachele and Izak Rankine leading the way.

Whether Rachele, Rankine or the rising Luke Pedlar can become difference makers in the midfield could raise the bar for the Crows.

“There is a whole range of things like that up in the air: will Josh Rachele or Pedlar or Rankine turn into an A-grade midfielder after starting as a small forward? Will they make a jump to being an elite, ball using, bust out of the pack midfielder?” Bickley wondered.

What can Patrick Dangerfield deliver this year? Picture: Robert Cianflone/Getty Images

Not quite a sleeping giant, but more of the napping kind, Geelong will hit 2024 fully capable of being that outsider making a leap.

The Cats stacked up in most metrics last year but struggled when the ball got into their back 50.

Geelong ranked second for allowing the ball there but 16th at stopping opposition scores once under the pump.

A fit Jack Henry and Sam De Koning will help but the literally age-old questions about the veterans on Geelong’s list lasting a year will remain.

How much Tom Hawkins and Patrick Dangerfield can deliver as they get closer to their 20th seasons than their 10th could define the Cats run.

Perhaps Justin Longmuir will engineer a big bounce back.

The Western Bulldogs somehow missed the finals last year and have a bevy of A-graders, so too does Richmond.

Essendon appeared to be rising before a poor end to last year, Hawthorn believes it will be better and Gold Coast loudly picked up a triple-premiership coach in Damien Hardwick.

As Bickley noted: “the competition as a whole is much more even” than ever before.

And our 2024 vaulter may surprise us all.

Originally published as AFL 2024: The one thing which can stop the Crows contending, how Cats rebound after disappointing 2023